Day 121: COVID-19 Why Are States Obscuring the Data?

 

The screengrab above is from the Vermont Department of Health Weekly Summary of Vermont COVID-19 Data. It makes quite clear how residents of long-term care facilities are the majority of deaths from COVID-19 in that state. Similarly, the following chart illustrates the same thing, just adding that “Health Settings” include not only hospitals and long-term care, but therapeutic centers and behavioral health institutions as well.

Contrast Vermont’s data clarity with that of Minnesota. Although it is reported that 81% of Minnesota’s deaths occurred among residents of long-term care facilities, that is not easily demonstrated by the Minnesota Department of Health’s Stay Safe MN website. First, the only data that mention long-term care facilities is “case data,” not “death data.” Second, what death data there is is only disaggregated by race and ethnicity, not any other factors:

Congregant living?

Are LTC and Residential Behavioral Health “Non-Hospitalized?”

No correlation of deaths to anything other than race and ethnicity. Why is it important to correlate death to race and ethnicity, but not to residence in long-term care?

Of course, Minnesota is not alone in obscuring the relationship between infections in long-term care facilities and death. But why? When the data suggests that just getting your long-term care facilities infection control protocols in place would have reduced your deaths from COVID-19 by 80%, why wouldn’t you focus your energy there rather than house arrest for all residents? I get it that if you have a lot of infected but asymptomatic or minimally ill people going about, there is a greater challenge in protecting the residents of the long-term care facilities. But how is it less costly to impact the livelihoods of tens of millions rather than treat long-term care facilities more like Level 4 Bio labs?

The New York and Florida situations have been contrasted with regard to, in the one case, introducing infections into long-term care facilities, and in the other, putting emphasis on protecting residents of long-term care facilities as compared to other broader societal restrictions. As Texas Governor Greg Abbott tweeted, there does seem to be some correlation between the governing philosophies and the epidemic outcomes:

The first thing is focusing your efforts on the vulnerable, not controlling the whole of your society. Maybe you are obscuring the data so that it doesn’t make clear the consequences of your governing philosophy?

[Note: Links to all my COVID-19 posts can be found here.]

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  1. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Mendel (View Comment):
    The real issue, though, is that most US states haven’t ramped up their contact tracing capabilities enough to deal even with a symptomatic-transmission-only scenario (at least not to the metrics published by people like Scott Gottlieb), and they likely won’t get there anytime soon. But extending the lockdowns simply isn’t an option anymore in my opinion, so those states are going to have to make do with whatever capacity they have.

    Wouldn’t that involve government people talking to proles, and maybe even trying to appear human?  That seems a bit much to ask.  

    • #91
  2. CarolJoy, Above Top Secret Coolidge
    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret
    @CarolJoy

    Hammer, The (View Comment):

    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret (View Comment):

    Hammer, The (View Comment):

    I have a really difficult time believing that there are not very smart people out there pursuing that very line. With Sars1, from which we are apparently choosing to learn no lessons, and which died out with far less infection than the 70% cited by most people, somebody found that there was a correlation between infection and standing water in drains… that means somebody was taking a look at cases and attempting to connect threads, in the classic Sherlock Holmes method of problem solving.

    SNIP

    What ever happened to intelligent problem solving?

    Intelligent problem solving is not something the Dems really want to have occur.

    Of course there is always the old canard about whether so much of what has gone on is ignorance or an evil planned out event.

    When Gutfeld on Fox talked about the empty Navy hospital ship sitting in NYC harbor at the same time infected COVID elderly were pushed out of the hospital system and into nursing homes, i started to opt for the later of the two scenarios.

    I hate to be the “well, in my experience” guy … but I have generally found that the simplest explanation virtually always ends up being the correct one. I shy away from conspiracy theories not because conspiracies don’t exist, but because they do exist, and I’ve seen them, and I know how easily and quickly they fail.SNIP Information is spread through incredibly unreliable forms of media, and all of these fads (“conventional wisdom”) take on lives of their own. Then, when people actually do start asking questions, the polarization that we’ve developed over the past 2 decades kicks in and our response is largely tribalistic.

    I think our response is driven by two things: the older yet still somewhat dominant form of news dispersal: television. Then there is the newer form of information and news dispersal: social media.

    Plenty of people in my county still listen and watch TV. They view “real doctors and scientists” on TV saying HCQ is untested and harmful. They vote Democrat and “their governor” is being protective of all life and all things holy. So to honor him, all we need to do in Calif is stay at home for a year or two.

    If you offer up counter-arguments to their immense illogic, they trump your logic by saying, “But I am so afraid. The second and more deadly  wave of COVID will hit in this summer – so we all need to remain afraid.” Then there is no ability to remain logical, because you would be seen as ruthlessly unconcerned about the Vulnerability of the Scared.

    • #92
  3. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret (View Comment):

    What ever happened to intelligent problem solving?

    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret (View Comment):

    I think our response is driven by two things: the older yet still somewhat dominant form of news dispersal: television. Then there is the newer form of information and news dispersal: social media.

    Plenty of people in my county still listen and watch TV. They view “real doctors and scientists” on TV saying HCQ is untested and harmful. They vote Democrat and “their governor” is being protective of all life and all things holy. So to honor him, all we need to do in Calif is stay at home for a year or two.

    If you offer up counter-arguments to their immense illogic, they trump your logic by saying, “But I am so afraid. The second and more deadly wave of COVID will hit in this summer – so we all need to remain afraid.” Then there is no ability to remain logical, because you would be seen as ruthlessly unconcerned about the Vulnerability of the Scared.

    Credentials. This is what is needed for authority. This is what works for doctors, lawyers and scientists. The education systems is where these credentials are earned. The doctors and the lawyers ultimate credentials are issued by government through licensing. Some scientists are influenced by grants from various sources. Media and politicians simply have to make arrangements with credentialed authority with which they are in agreement. We are in the midst of a great divide and it is on display in all media forms.

    Maybe for those not now working they will use this time to do some questioning and investigation.

    • #93
  4. Jack Shepherd Inactive
    Jack Shepherd
    @dnewlander

    Al French of Damascus (View Comment):

    Jack Shepherd (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):

    Jack Shepherd (View Comment):
    I understand that there are difficulties in doing such studies, but to simply throw hands up and not even try as lives are ruined needlessly is not acceptable.

    Please see my comment #36 in this thread, where I addressed this in some detail.

    It’s not fair to say that researchers “aren’t even trying”. Many have been working furiously at trying to uncover the details of real-life, day-to-day transmission. And they’ve been genuine making progress, albeit less than anyone would like (for reasons I detailed in the previous comment).

    But I’ll repeat my main point from that comment: the public is just as much to blame as the experts.

     

    Fair enough that the work has been done.

    But I’m in contact every day with someone who’s working with the Governor’s office on making predictions and setting policy for my state.

    This information is not making its way to our Governor, and it’s pissing me off.

    I will share some Gottlieb links with him tomorrow.

    But it’s also not fair to blame the “public”. There is a real tension between Democrats who want to make Trump look bad and others, and Chicken Little Karens who are afraid of everything.

    But anyone who’s advocating contact tracing as an answer doesn’t actually know how government in this country works. You simply cannot force someone who has not been accused of a crime to tell you who they’ve been in contact with in the US.

    That sh!t may fly in South Korea. It WILL NOT fly here. That is not a solution.

    Better science about how this thing actually spreads needs to be done and communicated. That last one is not a medical thing, that’s a media thing. And the media is on the Shut It Down side.

    You may not be able to force people to cooperate with contact tracing, but I think most people would voluntarily comply. You would never get 100% tracing for many reasons. The question is how significant the leakage would be.

    I would not comply. Simply because it’s Unconstitutional and wrong. Revealing information about someone else who has done nothing wrong is evil, simply put.

    • #94
  5. rgbact Inactive
    rgbact
    @romanblichar

    Mendel (View Comment):

      In the past few weeks a number of large-scale antibody tests have come back, both from several cities/states in the US and countries in Europe, and they fairly consistently show infection fatality rates between 0.5%-1.3%. Combine that with a new virus to which most of the population presumably has no pre-existing immunity and one million deaths is at the low end of the range. And I postulate that most of the American public would be happy to engage in extended lockdowns if they were fairly certain that would be the death toll without interventions.

    That translates to a mortality rate of about 0.15% for people under age 70. So, how long do you want to keep them and the economy under lockdown? You mention no endgame, so how much more joblessness can we see before “the American public would be happy” isn’t true anymore? Even the Democrats are slowly admitting that a vaccine is their only endgame out of lockdown.

    • #95
  6. CarolJoy, Above Top Secret Coolidge
    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret
    @CarolJoy

    rgbact (View Comment):

    Mendel (View Comment):

    In the past few weeks a number of large-scale antibody tests have come back, both from several cities/states in the US and countries in Europe, and they fairly consistently show infection fatality rates between 0.5%-1.3%. Combine that with a new virus to which most of the population presumably has no pre-existing immunity and one million deaths is at the low end of the range. And I postulate that most of the American public would be happy to engage in extended lockdowns if they were fairly certain that would be the death toll without interventions.

    That translates to a mortality rate of about 0.15% for people under age 70. So, how long do you want to keep them and the economy under lockdown? You mention no endgame, so how much more joblessness can we see before “the American public would be happy” isn’t true anymore? Even the Democrats are slowly admitting that a vaccine is their only endgame out of lockdown.

    Yes the idea that some small percentage of people will die – even as that percentage is less than the mortality rate of the 1968 influenza outbreak  – so all of society should shut the Feck down is ridiculous.

    Especially given the havoc that shut downs are causing. The Calif doctor interviewed in the following article from the National Review is saying that his facility has seen as many suicides in these past few short weeks as normally occur in a full year!

    https://www.nationalreview.com/news/a-years-worth-of-suicide-attempts-in-the-last-four-weeks-california-doctor-calls-for-end-to-lockdown/amp/?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR0b7LckKWidSm1KwkWp4xKKYMS5JlMuRzlCZxglZN5E6-XpCThSrYCyIWg

    @mendel

    California Doctor Calls for End to Lockdown
    By Tobias Hoonho May22nd 2020
    The doctor in charge of a Bay Area, Calif. trauma center said the state should end its lockdown orders after an “unprecedented” spike in suicide attempts amid the coronavirus pandemic.

    “We’ve never seen numbers like this, in such a short period of time,” Dr. Mike deBoisblanc, head of trauma at John Muir Medical Center, told local station ABC7. “I mean, we’ve seen a year’s worth of suicide attempts in the last four weeks.” He added that he thinks “it’s time” to end the state shutdown.

    Full article at link above

    ####

    • #96
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