Day 86, COVID-19: I Take an Antibody Test

 
A SARS-CoV-2 antibody test kit being administrated, from Arcpoint Labs

A SARS-CoV-2 antibody test kit being administrated, from Arcpoint Labs

The image is from the Arcpoint Labs website and shows both the SARS-CoV-2 antibody test kit and the way it is administered. Alcohol wipe the finger. Use a lancet to prick the finger and start oozing blood. Use a capillary tube to draw in some blood from the wound and place a droplet in the test kit port marked “lgG.” Repeat the draw and place a droplet in the test kit port marked “lgM.” Add reagent to the port marked “B” ( I think). Wait five minutes for results. They didn’t show me the kit when the test was completed so I can’t describe what it looks like when a result is given. Maybe it is some coloring of points marked “C” and “S” on the kit?

Mind you, this is not a test for the presence of the virus, like they give to symptomatic people. This is a test for antibodies against infection by the virus — and indicator that the virus has been in the system and defeated.

OK, what were my results? Negative for both lgG and lgM. The paper they handed out to explain the test results state as follows:

Negative lgG, Negative lgM (two possibilities):

• Patient has never encountered COVID-19 and is healthy, but susceptible. Continue social distancing protocols.

• Early latent infection — too early for antibody detection. Continue social distancing approx. 2 weeks.

Because they are testing for two antibodies there are four possible outcomes. The other three are:

Negative lgG, Positive lgM:

• Early stages of antibody response. Possible virus carrier/latent infection. Continue social distancing for
approximately 5-7 additional days.

Postive lgG, Positive lgM:

• Recent infection. Suggests functional immunity. Discontinue social distancing.

Positive lgG, Negative lgM:

• Past infection. Suggests functional immunity. Discontinue social distancing.

Arcpoint is one of over 70 commercial labs that have or are developing COVID-19 antibody tests. I asked what was the minimum titer required to generate a positive test result? The technician did not know but said that was a good question.

None of the tests are FDA-approved at this point. And the fine print also says “Negative results do not rule out SARS-CoV-2 infection, particularly in those who have been in contact with the virus. Follow-up testing with a molecular diagnostic should be considered to rule out infection in these individuals.” That quote is FDA-mandated boilerplate along with “Results from antibody testing should not be used as the sole basis or diagnose or exclude SARS-CoV-2 infection or inform infection status,” “Positive results may be due to past or present infection with non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strains, such as HKU1, NL63, OC43, or 229E,” and “Not for the screening of donated blood.”

So where does that leave me? It is suggestive that whatever else is going on, my particular perambulations have not brought me into contact with the virus. And, no, the flu-like symptoms all three of us in the household experienced in January was not COVID-19. We all had the seasonal flu vaccine and the illness we did have was pretty mild.

The county where we live in California, Contra Costa, is part of the greater Bay Area and has been in lockdown since March 17. We currently have 615 confirmed cases in the county, with 44 hospitalized and 14 deaths. The county’s population exceeds 1.1 million.

My community is away from the large population centers of the county. Which is just as well. The household is comprised of a 66-year-old female (Mrs. Rodin), a 70-year old male (me), and a 90-year-old female (Mrs. Rodin’s mother). Our infection control protocol is pretty much what you would expect from people our age — whatever our energy permits and whatever we can remember to do. Over the last couple of months, I filled up what had been bare freezers in case we had to be quarantined. We made sure we had 90 days of meds. I am the only one who goes to the grocery store or the pharmacy. I wear a mask when I am in any store and add gloves at the supermarket or gas station.

Mrs. Rodin’s mother accompanies me on as many trips as possible but only stays in the car. It keeps her from going stir crazy — and no one wants her to be stir crazy. As no one in the household was working outside the home when the health emergency was declared, the main impact has been the inability to do sit-down dining in the restaurants we frequented or the occasional visits to retail shops. It has scuppered any possible family visits for the time being. And broader excursions to Carmel, Monterey, Lake Tahoe, or regional and national parks are out of the question.

But we are not the ones I worry about. I fear for the many people who provided services to us that are now idled. I fear for people who need group support but who are barred from gathering. Mrs. Rodin asked me last night what are the people who need meetings to control their addictions doing? Fortunately, we do not have personal experience of this, but one of our favorite comedies, Mom, is centered around recovering addicts, so no doubt this prompted the thought.

There has been discussion on our Nextdoor local group about a shortage of produce in our local store. Speculation is that farmers are having problems getting the crops into the supply chain, or that maybe truckers are in short supply. I don’t know. This is probably temporary but I worry that a lot of damage is being done to the economy in ways that are not always apparent … until they are.

So, let’s get those antibody tests rolled out and getting a better picture of the level of infection and the true risks of getting this disease.

[Note: Links to all my COVID-19 posts can be found here.]

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  1. Al French, PIT Geezer Moderator
    Al French, PIT Geezer
    @AlFrench

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Locke On (View Comment):

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Hammer, The (View Comment):

    Locke On (View Comment):

    Hammer, The (View Comment):

    Also – don’t go around resting your case. Take it from an attorney who has both won and lost plenty of times, even in the best of circumstances, you ought not rest your case until all the evidence is in. If there is one thing that seems pretty much consistent across the board, on which virtually everyone studying this agrees, we are lacking much information

    Heh. I’m an engineer, not an attorney. Current estimates of immunity level needed for herd immunity in the US are about 70%. So my 2.8% guesstimate would have to be off by a factor of 25 to reach that level. That’s a bet I’d take, to change metaphors, even given the acknowledged shortage of information.

    To be fair, I don’t expect full herd immunity- any level of herd immunity would be beneficial, and at a relatively small amount (I imagine), you start to get less of the extreme levels and things look a bit more manageable.

    First of all, based on the cruise ship incident, only 20% got infected in that optimal (for the virus) event. You will not get 70% “herd immunity” if 80% of people exposed do not get infected.

    The French carrier Foch is apparently returning to port with a third of its crew infected. And those sailors will be largely a young and healthy population. I wouldn’t lean too heavily on that cruise ship data point.

    Michael Levitt, biophysicist and Nobel prize winner in Chemistry, used the Diamond Priness data to form much of his hypothesis and modeling. He did not predict doom and gloom. In fact he predicted the opposite.

    If French sailors are young and healthy then none of them will die, correct?

    A sailor on the American carrier has reportedly died.

    • #61
  2. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    Al French, PIT Geezer (View Comment):

    colleenb (View Comment):

    Bob W (View Comment):

    I can’t shake the feeling that testing is not going to be as helpful as we hear. It would certainly be helpful to individuals who are positive, to confirm a diagnosis. And also mass random testing to determine how far the virus has spread. But to get the economy going again, no. If you are in a workplace and they test you and all your coworkers and everyone is negative, then you can all go back to work without worrying, right? Wrong. This virus isn’t like HIV. It’s far easier to get. If your coworker tests negative, they could get exposed to it the next day. Are they going to test everyone twice a week? For how long? Or maybe they will try to get everyone in the country to get a test on the same day? Good luck with that.

    Trump was right when he said we will know everything is ok when no one is getting sick anymore. Testing alone isn’t going to get us to that point.

    Does anyone know how often health care workers/hospital staff are tested? I would agree that without frequent testing, testing may not be as helpful as advertised. Mostly a way to bash Trump/Republicans?

    The hospital where my daughter works does not test its employees unless they have WuFlu symptoms.

    Same at my wife’s hospital.  I find it a little disturbing.

    • #62
  3. MichaelKennedy Inactive
    MichaelKennedy
    @MichaelKennedy

    Locke On (View Comment):

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Hammer, The (View Comment):

    Locke On (View Comment):

    Hammer, The (View Comment):

    Also – don’t go around resting your case. Take it from an attorney who has both won and lost plenty of times, even in the best of circumstances, you ought not rest your case until all the evidence is in. If there is one thing that seems pretty much consistent across the board, on which virtually everyone studying this agrees, we are lacking much information

    Heh. I’m an engineer, not an attorney. Current estimates of immunity level needed for herd immunity in the US are about 70%. So my 2.8% guesstimate would have to be off by a factor of 25 to reach that level. That’s a bet I’d take, to change metaphors, even given the acknowledged shortage of information.

    To be fair, I don’t expect full herd immunity- any level of herd immunity would be beneficial, and at a relatively small amount (I imagine), you start to get less of the extreme levels and things look a bit more manageable.

    First of all, based on the cruise ship incident, only 20% got infected in that optimal (for the virus) event. You will not get 70% “herd immunity” if 80% of people exposed do not get infected.

    The French carrier Foch is apparently returning to port with a third of its crew infected. And those sailors will be largely a young and healthy population. I wouldn’t lean too heavily on that cruise ship data point.

    I’m not but you add a data point at 30%.  The argument is supported.

    • #63
  4. MichaelKennedy Inactive
    MichaelKennedy
    @MichaelKennedy

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Locke On (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Hammer, The (View Comment):

    Locke On (View Comment):

    Hammer, The (View Comment):

    Also – don’t go around resting your case. Take it from an attorney who has both won and lost plenty of times, even in the best of circumstances, you ought not rest your case until all the evidence is in. If there is one thing that seems pretty much consistent across the board, on which virtually everyone studying this agrees, we are lacking much information

    Heh. I’m an engineer, not an attorney. Current estimates of immunity level needed for herd immunity in the US are about 70%. So my 2.8% guesstimate would have to be off by a factor of 25 to reach that level. That’s a bet I’d take, to change metaphors, even given the acknowledged shortage of information.

    p.s. I apologize if that sounded snide.

    The last paragraph estimates a case fatality rate between 0.5 percent and 3 percent. No way it’s 3 percent. At most it’s 1 percent imo. I will bet 3000 dollars the case fatality rate is under 3 percent

    I think your bet is safe. Here’s my current back of the envelope:

    As of right now, 646300 positive test in the US, 28640 deaths.

    Assume 7/1 ratio of total cases including asymptomatic & minimally symptomatic (nonpresenting) cases to positive tests (based on early Wuhan data) implies 4524100 actual infections.

    28640/4524100 ~ .6%

    Probably somewhat understated, since some unresolved cases will end in death, but far enough below 1% that it will probably stay there.

    Here’s the down side of those numbers:

    4524100 / 329,500,000 (estimated current US population) = 1.37% have been infected

    To get to 70% level required for pure herd immunity (IOW, no other measures taken to reduce R-nought): (70% / 1.37%) * 28640 = 1.46 million deaths in the US

    So we won’t do it that way. Social distancing, masking, isolation are going to be around for the duration.

    1.46 million deaths is wrong — too high

    Let the children out! Children have strong immune systems and have not been affected by the virus. They are either immune or asymptomatic.

     

    Small children should also be immune (Not true immunity but not susceptible) from the cytokine storms that killed young adults.

    • #64
  5. MISTER BITCOIN Inactive
    MISTER BITCOIN
    @MISTERBITCOIN

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Locke On (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Hammer, The (View Comment):

    Locke On (View Comment):

    Hammer, The (View Comment):

    Also – don’t go around resting your case. Take it from an attorney who has both won and lost plenty of times, even in the best of circumstances, you ought not rest your case until all the evidence is in. If there is one thing that seems pretty much consistent across the board, on which virtually everyone studying this agrees, we are lacking much information

    Heh. I’m an engineer, not an attorney. Current estimates of immunity level needed for herd immunity in the US are about 70%. So my 2.8% guesstimate would have to be off by a factor of 25 to reach that level. That’s a bet I’d take, to change metaphors, even given the acknowledged shortage of information.

    p.s. I apologize if that sounded snide.

    The last paragraph estimates a case fatality rate between 0.5 percent and 3 percent. No way it’s 3 percent. At most it’s 1 percent imo. I will bet 3000 dollars the case fatality rate is under 3 percent

    I think your bet is safe. Here’s my current back of the envelope:

    As of right now, 646300 positive test in the US, 28640 deaths.

    Assume 7/1 ratio of total cases including asymptomatic & minimally symptomatic (nonpresenting) cases to positive tests (based on early Wuhan data) implies 4524100 actual infections.

    28640/4524100 ~ .6%

    Probably somewhat understated, since some unresolved cases will end in death, but far enough below 1% that it will probably stay there.

    Here’s the down side of those numbers:

    4524100 / 329,500,000 (estimated current US population) = 1.37% have been infected

    To get to 70% level required for pure herd immunity (IOW, no other measures taken to reduce R-nought): (70% / 1.37%) * 28640 = 1.46 million deaths in the US

    So we won’t do it that way. Social distancing, masking, isolation are going to be around for the duration.

    1.46 million deaths is wrong — too high

    Let the children out! Children have strong immune systems and have not been affected by the virus. They are either immune or asymptomatic.

     

    Small children should also be immune (Not true immunity but not susceptible) from the cytokine storms that killed young adults.

    correct me if I’m wrong, cytokine storms are more likely to occur in adults with compromised immune systems.

     

    • #65
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