Hospital Beds Are Not the Only Good!

 

Allowing a single priority to trump all others is a recipe for craziness. Health is important, but if we prioritize any one thing to the exclusion of all others then the results can be quite destructive. Imagine, for example, if we decided that auto accidents must be stopped at all costs, which we can do by banning all use of cars. The consequences of such an approach would end civilization as we know it.

Nobody wants our hospitals to be overwhelmed. But that is hardly the only “good” that we should be trying to maximize. Poverty also kills, and closing all schools and many businesses is a sure way to hammer people for whom food and heat and medicine are luxuries.

We must balance the goods to the extent that we can. If we do not, then the murders, suicides, poverty-related deaths, and numerous other woes that come from shutting down society will cause far, far more damage than Corona.

In hindsight, this crisis will make the Tulip Mania seem sane. It is proof that smart people are not necessarily any wiser than your average toadstool.

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  1. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    Mark Camp (View Comment):
    we still had plenty of ordinary dust masks!

    I’ve been wondering about that too. I doubt there are any left in New England today, but my husband used to have them in his woodworking shop. Hmm. I’ll have to poke around the garage. :-)

    • #31
  2. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    MarciN (View Comment):

    Mark Camp (View Comment):
    we still had plenty of ordinary dust masks!

    I’ve wondering about that too. I doubt there are any left in New England today, but my husband used to have them in his woodworking shop. Hmm. I’ll have to poke around the garage. :-)

    I threw one out yesterday, when cleaning out some workshop things that had been collecting dust for a long time.  But it was pretty dirty, and there are most likely more of them around. 

    • #32
  3. Mark Camp Member
    Mark Camp
    @MarkCamp

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):

    Mark Camp (View Comment):
    we still had plenty of ordinary dust masks!

    I’ve wondering about that too. I doubt there are any left in New England today, but my husband used to have them in his woodworking shop. Hmm. I’ll have to poke around the garage. :-)

    I threw one out yesterday, when cleaning out some workshop things that had been collecting dust for a long time. But it was pretty dirty, and there are most likely more of them around.

    Yeah but don’t take my advice. 

    Sure, logically, anything that prevents hand-to-respiratory-intake contact* should be way, way more effective than hand-washing** and the other commonly advised technique: “Just don’t touch your face***!”

    But for whatever reason, this thinking is apparently missing something, or experts would advise plain dust masks.  I’m told they’ve studied the question and dust masks don’t work as we’d expect them to, and the other advice does even though we’d expect it not to.  Biology is complicated.

    *like any old dustmask, or some brightly colored or sharp but harmless little things stuck to the side of your first finger–“OUCH! I won’t do that again,” says your reliable, subconscious mind.

    **your hands touch surfaces after you wash them, right?

    ***don’t touch, even if

    • your nose itches, or
    • you are about to go in for a big job interview and have meat stuck between your front teeth, or
    • you are sitting at a red light and realize you have a booger

     

    • #33
  4. Phil Turmel Inactive
    Phil Turmel
    @PhilTurmel

    Mark Camp (View Comment):

    Kozak (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    Kozak (View Comment):

    iWe: In hindsight, this crisis will make the Tulip Mania seem sane. It is proof that smart people are not necessarily any wiser than your average toadstool.

    In hindsight the “the flu is worse, just wash your damn hands” people are going to look like Pontius Pilate.

    Kozak, how many deaths are you predicting? It would be helpful to have some benchmark, for subsequent evaluation.

    I’m not a psychic. I have no idea.

    Kozak,

    In fact you do have an idea. See the bolded quote. Your confident verbal prediction must have some quantitative basis. Surely you wouldn’t be predicting this regret if you thought the answer to Jerry’s question were, “1000 more”, which would make this a minor outbreak and wouldn’t cause anyone to look like Pontius Pilate, as you claim that people will.

    If you’d been paying attention in this topic, you’d know that Kozak and iWe have a friendly bet on this.  Kozak’s assertion is that Covid-19 deaths will exceed flu deaths in the U.S. in 2020.  Typical annual flu deaths in the U.S. are in the tens of thousands.  So, yes, Kozak has made a pretty dire prediction.

    So Jerry’s question is one that any reasonable person would ask you. You should either walk back your level of confidence in your prediction, or stick to it and answer the question. Right now you are in no-man’s land, asserting and denying the same proposition.

    And this type of demand is not only unfounded in this case, but seriously rude to a fellow Ricochetti.  IMNSHO.

    • #34
  5. Ontheleftcoast Inactive
    Ontheleftcoast
    @Ontheleftcoast

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):
    Me? I copied down and printed out the instructions our resident ER doctor @kozak gave us about how to make a face mask from a coffee filter and a plastic bag. :-)

    Toilet paper is one thing, but if people start hoarding coffee filters things are going to get violent.

    Use a coffee press (aka French press). It makes better coffee. It may not be the very best way to make coffee, but the better ways are too labor-intensive for me. When we’re traveling we generally use coffee filters, because cleanup is simpler, but at home we use a press (with an appropriately coarser grind of coffee).

    Plus the press provides a superior outlet for one’s OCD tendencies if one leans that way. Weigh the coffee, weigh the water, set the timer.

    Or you can go more artistic: three small handfuls of beans per cup, fill the press up to about here.

    • #35
  6. Steve C. Member
    Steve C.
    @user_531302

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    MarciN (View Comment):
    Me? I copied down and printed out the instructions our resident ER doctor @kozak gave us about how to make a face mask from a coffee filter and a plastic bag. :-)

    Toilet paper is one thing, but if people start hoarding coffee filters things are going to get violent.

    Paper towels are a suitable field expedient.

     

    • #36
  7. Ontheleftcoast Inactive
    Ontheleftcoast
    @Ontheleftcoast

    It’s very true that hospital beds aren’t the only good.

    Having drivers to transport food to the regional distribution center is a good.

    Having people healthy enough to go to work at the water purification plant is a good.

    Having people healthy enough to repair downed power lines is a good.

    It’s interesting that the same steps needed to maintain the good of adequate hospital staffing also promote these additional goods.

    • #37
  8. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Mark Camp (View Comment):

    Kozak,

    In fact you do have an idea. See the bolded quote. Your confident verbal prediction must have some quantitative basis. Surely you wouldn’t be predicting this regret if you thought the answer to Jerry’s question were, “1000 more”, which would make this a minor outbreak and wouldn’t cause anyone to look like Pontius Pilate, as you claim that people will.

    So Jerry’s question is one that any reasonable person would ask you. You should either walk back your level of confidence in your prediction, or stick to it and answer the question. Right now you are in no-man’s land, asserting and denying the same proposition.

    I have a bet with @Iwe that there will be more deaths from Covid in the 12 months from Feb then seasonal flu.

    Ok?

    I hope I lose my bet.

    • #38
  9. Mark Camp Member
    Mark Camp
    @MarkCamp

    Kozak (View Comment):

    Mark Camp (View Comment):

    Kozak,

    In fact you do have an idea. See the bolded quote. Your confident verbal prediction must have some quantitative basis. Surely you wouldn’t be predicting this regret if you thought the answer to Jerry’s question were, “1000 more”, which would make this a minor outbreak and wouldn’t cause anyone to look like Pontius Pilate, as you claim that people will.

    So Jerry’s question is one that any reasonable person would ask you. You should either walk back your level of confidence in your prediction, or stick to it and answer the question. Right now you are in no-man’s land, asserting and denying the same proposition.

    I have a bet with @Iwe that there will be more deaths from Covid in the 12 months from Feb then seasonal flu.

    Ok?

    I hope I lose my bet.

    Thx, Kozak. I missed that.

    • #39
  10. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    People, I was not the one who came up with the plastic bag/ paper towel idea for a mask.

    However.

    I did make a prototype from the outer liner which is water repellent  of a disposal diaper ( adult or children’s), and either some filter paper or paper towel and 2 rubber bands.

    Not pretty, but I think is certainly better then nothing.

    Again, prior studies show that if  everyone wears a surgical mask it can cut the transmission of respiratory infection by 80%.

    • #40
  11. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    Ontheleftcoast (View Comment):

    It’s very true that hospital beds aren’t the only good.

    Having drivers to transport food to the regional distribution center is a good.

    Having people healthy enough to go to work at the water purification plant is a good.

    Having people healthy enough to repair downed power lines is a good.

    It’s interesting that the same steps needed to maintain the good of adequate hospital staffing also promote these additional goods.

    For most young people, this is a brief flu-like illness (or even entirely asymptomatic in a majority of cases). How long should you shut down the economy to avoid this?

    Why not just have everyone over 60 self-quarantine as much as possible, and everyone else carries on?

     

     

    • #41
  12. Ralphie Inactive
    Ralphie
    @Ralphie

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    By the way, it turns out that the problem is not hospital beds, apparently. One of my other posts demonstrated that we should have plenty of beds — and I was told that the problem is ventilators, actually. Though this seemed unlikely, as well, when I dug into the numbers, unless we assume that we’re gong to have about 100 million cases and about 5 million hospital admissions (which is one recent projection).

    I think that a part of the problem is planning for the “worst case” scenario. At least, that’s the term used, though they never really mean it, because no matter how bad it gets, I could imagine worse. Well, perhaps unless we’re all dead.

    But if you plan for the worst case scenario, you can never do anything. You can’t go to the store, because you might be killed in a car crash on your way there.

    What we need are reasonable projections, and perhaps the problem is insufficient information to make a reasonable projection.

    I’m learning a lot. I am thinking we need to face the fact that we cannot contain it if it wasn’t in China.  I’m guessing the point of diminishing returns is getting close.  It will be interesting to see how the UK does balancing health and economic needs using a different approach. 

    • #42
  13. MichaelKennedy Inactive
    MichaelKennedy
    @MichaelKennedy

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    By the way, it turns out that the problem is not hospital beds, apparently. One of my other posts demonstrated that we should have plenty of beds — and I was told that the problem is ventilators, actually. Though this seemed unlikely, as well, when I dug into the numbers, unless we assume that we’re gong to have about 100 million cases and about 5 million hospital admissions (which is one recent projection).

    I think that a part of the problem is planning for the “worst case” scenario. At least, that’s the term used, though they never really mean it, because no matter how bad it gets, I could imagine worse. Well, perhaps unless we’re all dead.

    But if you plan for the worst case scenario, you can never do anything. You can’t go to the store, because you might be killed in a car crash on your way there.

    What we need are reasonable projections, and perhaps the problem is insufficient information to make a reasonable projection.

    The reason why ventilators will not be a limiting factor is the fact that both Chloroquine, an old drug that has been around since 1945, and Hydroxychloroquine, a derivative used for rheumatoid arthritis (Plaquenil) are effective in prevention and treatment of the virus.  South Korea and China have been using them and UK has now banned export, suggesting they have figured this out.  The backstop is remdesivir which is in clinical trials.  All these drugs should keep respirator use under control. My wife and I are both high risk and have a supply.  I have prescribed some for my son who is a paramedic and an insulin dependent diabetic.  Also for his wife in case she gets it and gives it to him.

    • #43
  14. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):
    The reason why ventilators will not be a limiting factor is the fact that both Chloroquine, an old drug that has been around since 1945, and Hydroxychloroquine, a derivative used for rheumatoid arthritis (Plaquenil) are effective in prevention and treatment of the virus. South Korea and China have been using them and UK has now banned export, suggesting they have figured this out. The backstop is remdesivir which is in clinical trials. All these drugs should keep respirator use under control. My wife and I are both high risk and have a supply. I have prescribed some for my son who is a paramedic and an insulin dependent diabetic. Also for his wife in case she gets it and gives it to him.

    Now THIS is helpful, and deserves its own post!  It should be shouted from the rooftops that there are, indeed, treatments that work!

    • #44
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