There are 64 comments.

1. Member
   DrewInWisconsin, Influencer

   @DrewInWisconsin

   9:12 AM EST ⋅ Mar 6, 2020

   MarciN (View Comment):
   I’m putting all of my hope in an early spring. Whenever contagious infections have gotten loose in the schools my kids attended, the principals or superintendents would wisely shut them down for a week or two and air out the buildings. In spring, the infections stopped coming. February was always the worst. By the middle of March, things started to improve on their own. 

   From what I’m reading, that’s not as likely because this is a new virus.

2. Member
   Unsk

   @Unsk

   9:12 AM EST ⋅ Mar 6, 2020

   “We can’t blame them. This neglect in procedures and equipment has been known since the Ebola and Zika scares.”

   Normally yes. But this in not a normal situation. Trump almost certainly will be blamed if this pandemic gets out of control no matter who is really to blame. 

   “I’m putting all of my hope in an early spring.”

   You can put that in my hoping and wishing category. It would be great if that were true, but there is no evidence yet to support that, and this disease is not just a normal flu.  The HIV inserts complicate matters- potentially a lot. Weather in warmer climes has not  been shown to decrease the spread of the disease. 

3. Member
   MarciN

   @MarciN

   9:24 AM EST ⋅ Mar 6, 2020

   Unsk (View Comment):

   “We can’t blame them. This neglect in procedures and equipment has been known since the Ebola and Zika scares.”

   Normally yes. But this in not a normal situation. Trump almost certainly will be blamed if this pandemic gets out of control no matter who is really to blame.

   “I’m putting all of my hope in an early spring.”

   You can put that in my hoping and wishing category. It would be great if that were true, but there is no evidence yet to support that, and this disease is not just a normal flu. The HIV inserts complicate matters- potentially a lot. Weather in warmer climes has not been shown to decrease the spread of the disease.

   My daughter is living in Manhattan right now, and when I consider the potential for craziness there, I can’t think straight. So I’m going to keep hoping. :-)

4. Member
   Unsk

   @Unsk

   9:22 PM EST ⋅ Mar 6, 2020

   From the NY Post and Saeed Ghasseminejad” How Iran’s regime set off a coronavirus bomb on it’s own economy”:

   “The coronavirus has shattered any hope of the Iranian economy clawing out from under two years of deep recession. To the ruling regime’s chagrin, the virus has begun to adversely affect precisely those sectors that seemed poised for growth after weathering the return of US sanctions.”

   “By sacrificing public health to politics, the clerical regime turned Iran into a coronavirus bomb exploding across the Middle East. When the epidemic broke out, Tehran failed to cut, limit or even supervise contacts with China. As always, ordinary Iranians have been the main victim of the Islamist regime’s incompetence and psychopathic indifference toward its own citizens.”

   “Beginning in late January, social media reported cases of the virus in Iran, especially in the holy city of Qom. Rather than taking action, the regime issued denials and accused the individuals who reported the problem of “spreading rumors.” The result one month later is an official death toll of 77, likely massively understated, while the country’s deputy health minister admitted to testing positive for coronavirus the day after a news conference at which he sweatily insisted the situation was under control.”

   So there you have it , rather than “taking action” the regime issue denials and accused people of “spreading rumors”. Kinda sounds familiar. 

5. Member
   J. D. Fitzpatrick

   @JDFitzpatrick

   

   9:27 PM EST ⋅ Mar 6, 2020

   DrewInWisconsin, Influencer (View Comment):

    

   My biggest worry is the fallout from unnecessary panicking. My income depends on schools in Wisconsin and Minnesota staying open. Should we see a lot of cases springing up in Wisconsin or Minnesota, I could see schools closing for the rest of the school year, which would pretty much reduce me to poverty. That’s what gives me the most anxiety.

   If schools close, a fair number of parents are going to want their kids to receive some kind of instruction online, which means that you would have an opportunity to start something up or partner with people involved in selling instruction. Someone will be needed to organize the available teachers, set prices, create procedures, and so forth. This is stuff that you could figure out by signing your kids up for tutoring and looking at how the center operates. 

   I don’t mean to sound callous here, Drew, but you can’t just accept poverty. 

6. Coolidge
   DonG (skeptic)

   @DonG

   10:15 PM EST ⋅ Mar 6, 2020

   Unsk (View Comment):
   “The coronavirus has shattered any hope of the Iranian economy clawing out from under two years of deep recession. To the ruling regime’s chagrin, the virus has begun to adversely affect precisely those sectors that seemed poised for growth after weathering the return of US sanctions.”

   Iran is a country of young people.  That will be of help.

7. Member
   drlorentz

   @drlorentz

   

   12:46 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

   Rodin: There are now believed to be two main strains of COVID-19

   Minor point: the disease is COVID-19. The virus is SARS-CoV-2. (Reference) People infected with SARS-CoV-2 contract COVID-19.

8. Coolidge
   Marjorie Reynolds

   @MarjorieReynolds

   2:59 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

   drlorentz (View Comment):

   Rodin: There are now believed to be two main strains of COVID-19

   Minor point: the disease is COVID-19. The virus is SARS-CoV-2. (Reference) People infected with SARS-CoV-2 contract COVID-19.

   I don’t fully understand. Is it that if you get infected by sars cov2 then you are said to suffer from covid 19? Why two names for same thing? Or is it the same thing? Are there other examples is it like hiv and aids?

9. Coolidge
   Marjorie Reynolds

   @MarjorieReynolds

   3:16 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

   Marjorie Reynolds (View Comment):

   drlorentz (View Comment):

   Minor point: the disease is COVID-19. The virus is SARS-CoV-2. (Reference) People infected with SARS-CoV-2 contract COVID-19.

   I don’t fully understand. Is it that if you get infected by sars cov2 then you are said to suffer from covid 19? Why two names for same thing? Or is it the same thing? Are there other examples is it like hiv and aids?

   Actually I think I get it now I dug out my old college notes and got an example. Feline coronavirus causes feline infectious peritonitis

10. Coolidge
    Gazpacho Grande'

    @ChrisCampion

    4:39 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    Roderic (View Comment):

    The number infected in the US appears to be doubling every 3 or 4 days, just as it did at the beginning of the epidemic in China. At this rate we’ll have 10,000 infected by the end of the month, 100,000 infected by mid April.

    I don’t think this squares with the government’s assessment that we are at “low risk” for infection.

    There’s a potential for having a worse time of it here than they are having in China. For one thing we don’t weld people’s doors shut to enforce quarantines, and Americans are more likely to buck authority.

    Not if we take their guns, damn those sick gun-owning people!

11. Coolidge
    Gazpacho Grande'

    @ChrisCampion

    4:42 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    DrewInWisconsin, Influencer (View Comment):

    Because of my own tendency to be anxious, I am focusing on a couple related things:

    First, that because we aren’t doing as much testing as other places, and because symptoms are often indistinguishable from the common cold, we probably have a lot more cases in the U.S. than we realize.

    But second, that also probably means that the fatality rate is far lower than the current estimates.

    It might be a case where this is a coronavirus that spreads more easily, but isn’t especially more dangerous.

    I’m clinging to that.

    My biggest worry is the fallout from unnecessary panicking. My income depends on schools in Wisconsin and Minnesota staying open. Should we see a lot of cases springing up in Wisconsin or Minnesota, I could see schools closing for the rest of the school year, which would pretty much reduce me to poverty. That’s what gives me the most anxiety.

    The good news is that, if the hyperbole is to believed, you’ll have plenty of corpses to loot, shortly.

12. Member
    Front Seat Cat

    @FrontSeatCat

    6:31 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    Unsk (View Comment):

    “But we are also less densely packed, and a bit more . . . shall we say, . . . “sanitary.””

    Drew, there are a number of possible reasons why China is uniquely susceptible to this virus ranging from as you mentioned the incredibly poor sanitary habits of the Chinese peasantry, to the enormously high number of heavy smokers, to the incredibly bad air quality, to even a possible high susceptibility of those of Northern Chinese ancestry to SARS like diseases by one Chinese University study. It would be great, that if they possibilities were all true, which we don’t know, so that America’s susceptibility would be significantly less to this Corona Virus. It has even been speculated by some scientists this Virus is already mutating into a more virulent “L” strain and a less virulent “S” strain and perhaps that this rapid mutation of about two mutations a month will eventually mutate this disease into a near oblivion or a less dangerous disease.

    All that said, we cannot count on those things being true or happening. We need to prepare for the worst case. A case like what is happening right now in South Korea, which is far from the worst case, would be devastating. The downstream effects would be enormous with many dead, millions thrown out of work and millions more ruined financially. We have to do all that we can to stop this disease dead in it’s tracks and wishing and hoping things will get better probably ain’t gonna cut it.

    They said on the news last night that although reports about the outbreak emerged in early Jan. (and the expulsions of 4 Chinese lab workers in US and Canada), the reality was more like the outbreak occurred in Oct. in China. (?)  Also, can they make a vaccine without knowing the actual source and has that even been determined? Lab (man-made) or natural outbreak?

13. Member
    Front Seat Cat

    @FrontSeatCat

    6:33 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    Bryan G. Stephens (View Comment):

    As far as I am concerend, the CDC has proven it cannot do its job. Another part of the administrative state that fails when needed, just like the FBI, CIA and DOJ

    Like banks, they should be required to do reg. stress tests and preparedness – even if they are ground zero for testing and info!

14. Member
    Rodin

    @Rodin

    Post author

    6:41 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    drlorentz (View Comment):

    Rodin: There are now believed to be two main strains of COVID-19

    Minor point: the disease is COVID-19. The virus is SARS-CoV-2. (Reference) People infected with SARS-CoV-2 contract COVID-19.

    Marjorie Reynolds (View Comment):

    Marjorie Reynolds (View Comment):

    drlorentz (View Comment):

    Minor point: the disease is COVID-19. The virus is SARS-CoV-2. (Reference) People infected with SARS-CoV-2 contract COVID-19.

    I don’t fully understand. Is it that if you get infected by sars cov2 then you are said to suffer from covid 19? Why two names for same thing? Or is it the same thing? Are there other examples is it like hiv and aids?

    Actually I think I get it now I dug out my old college notes and got an example. Feline coronavirus causes feline infectious peritonitis

    Thank you, @drlorentz and @marjoriereynolds. 

15. Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Influencer

    @DrewInWisconsin

    6:47 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    J. D. Fitzpatrick (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Influencer (View Comment):

     

    My biggest worry is the fallout from unnecessary panicking. My income depends on schools in Wisconsin and Minnesota staying open. Should we see a lot of cases springing up in Wisconsin or Minnesota, I could see schools closing for the rest of the school year, which would pretty much reduce me to poverty. That’s what gives me the most anxiety.

    If schools close, a fair number of parents are going to want their kids to receive some kind of instruction online, which means that you would have an opportunity to start something up or partner with people involved in selling instruction. Someone will be needed to organize the available teachers, set prices, create procedures, and so forth. This is stuff that you could figure out by signing your kids up for tutoring and looking at how the center operates.

    I work on periodicals that are distributed to schools with content provided by schools. No schools, no content, no distribution.

16. Member
    Front Seat Cat

    @FrontSeatCat

    7:19 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    DrewInWisconsin, Influencer (View Comment):

    J. D. Fitzpatrick (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Influencer (View Comment):

     

    My biggest worry is the fallout from unnecessary panicking. My income depends on schools in Wisconsin and Minnesota staying open. Should we see a lot of cases springing up in Wisconsin or Minnesota, I could see schools closing for the rest of the school year, which would pretty much reduce me to poverty. That’s what gives me the most anxiety.

    If schools close, a fair number of parents are going to want their kids to receive some kind of instruction online, which means that you would have an opportunity to start something up or partner with people involved in selling instruction. Someone will be needed to organize the available teachers, set prices, create procedures, and so forth. This is stuff that you could figure out by signing your kids up for tutoring and looking at how the center operates.

    I work on periodicals that are distributed to schools with content provided by schools. No schools, no content, no distribution.

    Plan B: Can they email the content that you need in the meantime to keep going?

17. Member
    Front Seat Cat

    @FrontSeatCat

    7:21 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    Marjorie Reynolds (View Comment):

    Marjorie Reynolds (View Comment):

    drlorentz (View Comment):

    Minor point: the disease is COVID-19. The virus is SARS-CoV-2. (Reference) People infected with SARS-CoV-2 contract COVID-19.

    I don’t fully understand. Is it that if you get infected by sars cov2 then you are said to suffer from covid 19? Why two names for same thing? Or is it the same thing? Are there other examples is it like hiv and aids?

    Actually I think I get it now I dug out my old college notes and got an example. Feline coronavirus causes feline infectious peritonitis

    This feline doesn’t want that either…………..!

18. Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Influencer

    @DrewInWisconsin

    7:35 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    Front Seat Cat (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Influencer (View Comment):

    J. D. Fitzpatrick (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Influencer (View Comment):

    My biggest worry is the fallout from unnecessary panicking. My income depends on schools in Wisconsin and Minnesota staying open. Should we see a lot of cases springing up in Wisconsin or Minnesota, I could see schools closing for the rest of the school year, which would pretty much reduce me to poverty. That’s what gives me the most anxiety.

    If schools close, a fair number of parents are going to want their kids to receive some kind of instruction online, which means that you would have an opportunity to start something up or partner with people involved in selling instruction. Someone will be needed to organize the available teachers, set prices, create procedures, and so forth. This is stuff that you could figure out by signing your kids up for tutoring and looking at how the center operates.

    I work on periodicals that are distributed to schools with content provided by schools. No schools, no content, no distribution.

    Plan B: Can they email the content that you need in the meantime to keep going?

    That’s how it works now. Still, if schools are closed, there’s nobody to distribute to. The publisher won’t publish at that point. (We never publish anything in the summer months.)

    It’s fine. It’s not going to happen, right? I mean, even in Seattle the schools are still open. But I live in a state where the governor is completely controlled by the teachers’ unions, and I could just see him deciding to give teachers the rest of the year off with pay.

19. Member
    Kozak

    @Kozak

    

    7:50 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    DrewInWisconsin, Influencer (View Comment):
    That’s how it works now. Still, if schools are closed, there’s nobody to distribute to. The publisher won’t publish at that point. (We never publish anything in the summer months.)

    Well, the schools will be physically closed, but many will carry on with an online format.  

    So you still should have a demand hopefully.

20. Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Influencer

    @DrewInWisconsin

    7:59 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    Kozak (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Influencer (View Comment):
    That’s how it works now. Still, if schools are closed, there’s nobody to distribute to. The publisher won’t publish at that point. (We never publish anything in the summer months.)

    Well, the schools will be physically closed, but many will carry on with an online format.

    So you still should have a demand hopefully.

    Right. But there wouldn’t be a physical location to distribute the newspapers. This is mostly fears about my client giving up and deciding not to bother publishing. She’s skipped months before on minor pretexts. But I have to assume that she won’t want to lose the advertising money. These are advertiser-supported periodicals, so it would all depend on advertisers. But it also depends on trying to convince those advertisers to keep advertising while schools are closed.

    Anyway, let’s talk about everyone else’s anxieties!

21. Coolidge
    Lois Lane

    @LoisLane

    8:18 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    SXSW was canceled in Austin.  That festival makes around $350 million for the local economy.  Gone.  I don’t think @drewinwisconsin  has irrational fears at all.  Personally, I think the bigger threat is panic, whatever the virus does.  Maybe I’m silly, but I’m much more worried about the health of the economy than my health.

22. Coolidge
    Marjorie Reynolds

    @MarjorieReynolds

    8:37 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    Lois Lane (View Comment):

    SXSW was canceled in Austin. That festival makes around $350 million for the local economy. Gone. I don’t think @drewinwisconsin has irrational fears at all. Personally, I think the bigger threat is panic, whatever the virus does. Maybe I’m silly, but I’m much more worried about the health of the economy than my health.

    I’m not worried about my own health, I am concerned for my elderly parents who were both hospitalised at Christmas with flu/pneumonia. However I think our risk on infection is low due to where we live and our limited movements. There’s some risk but still I think it’s low.
    But it’s not out of the bounds of possibility that my workplace  (and a lot of others) could close and while I could withstand a few weeks without being paid it would start to hurt soon enough. 

23. Member
    Rodin

    @Rodin

    Post author

    9:06 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    Lois Lane (View Comment):
    I’m much more worried about the health of the economy than my health.

     

    Marjorie Reynolds (View Comment):
    my workplace (and a lot of others) could close and while I could withstand a few weeks without being paid it would start to hurt soon enough.

    Not a trivial concern:

    

24. Coolidge
    Marjorie Reynolds

    @MarjorieReynolds

    11:10 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Lois Lane (View Comment):
    I’m much more worried about the health of the economy than my health.

     

    Marjorie Reynolds (View Comment):
    my workplace (and a lot of others) could close and while I could withstand a few weeks without being paid it would start to hurt soon enough.

    Not a trivial concern:

    

    Well at least That should make Greta happy. Although she doesn’t seem to mind about Asian emissions.

25. Member
    Rodin

    @Rodin

    Post author

    11:19 AM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    Marjorie Reynolds (View Comment):
    Well at least That should make Greta happy. Although she doesn’t seem to mind about Asian emissions.

    I think Greta wants us to live in some combination of a Stone Age with internet. Good luck with that!

26. Inactive
    Jules PA

    @JulesPA

    1:01 PM EST ⋅ Mar 7, 2020

    Front Seat Cat (View Comment):
    the reality was more like the outbreak occurred in Oct. in China.

    Ok, that is scary…

27. Member
    Steven Seward

    @StevenSeward

    10:55 AM EDT ⋅ Mar 8, 2020

    I am grateful for the data collection done by Rodin, because it is important to monitor such things, for there is a real possibility of danger.  But I think people are becoming unnecessarily panicked over this pandemic.  We’ve been through so many of these scares in the past, that I am skeptical.  The human species was supposed to be decimated by Aids, SARS, MERSA, Swine Flu, Avian Bird Flu, Ebola, Anthrax, DDT, Lead Paint, Trans Fats, nuclear fallout from Japan, Mad Cows, and Rachel Maddow.  Curiously, we survived without significant loss of life, maybe excepting for Aids, and Rachel Maddow.

    We are living in the Age of Trump Hysteria and everything in the news is exaggerated by a factor of ten.  It seems to me that this is no exception.  Trump gives them even more incentive to blow this out of proportion, and I don’t want to be hoodwinked by it.  Previous commenters have pointed out that the death rates in China may be reasonably exacerbated by their unsanitary third-world conditions,  unusually high rates of smoking cigarettes, and some of the worst air pollution on the planet.  We won’t know the real extent of this for a month or more.

28. Member
    Unsk

    @Unsk

    11:05 AM EDT ⋅ Mar 8, 2020

    Front Seat: “the reality was more like the outbreak occurred in Oct. in China.”

    Their is some speculation that the Cruise Line passenger who contracted the disease and then died in California actually contracted the disease in California before boarding which is seemingly borne out by working backward the time of incubation and the time the symptoms occurred.  This speculation has led to other speculation that the disease has been spreading here  a lot longer than originally thought , particularly in places like California that  has hundreds of thousands of Chinese Nationals who may have traveled back and forth to China undetected. 

    That may be a scary thought as Jules worries, but it also may be a hopeful sign that we will not be hit as hard as other places around the world.  It could be that the new Covid -19 CoronaVirus was in California as early as late December and that the particularly nasty flu that hit in Janurary/February was actually the CoronaVirus. 

     

29. Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Influencer

    @DrewInWisconsin

    11:09 AM EDT ⋅ Mar 8, 2020

    Lois Lane (View Comment):
    SXSW was canceled in Austin. That festival makes around $350 million for the local economy. Gone. I don’t think @drewinwisconsin has irrational fears at all. Personally, I think the bigger threat is panic, whatever the virus does. Maybe I’m silly, but I’m much more worried about the health of the economy than my health.

    Italy has just cancelled . . . everything.

    Northern Italy under lockdown

    – Lombardy region (entire region, all provinces)
    – Piedmont (provinces of Alessandria, Asti, Novara, Verbano Cusio Ossola, and Vercelli)
    – Veneto(provinces of Padua, Treviso, and Venice)
    – Emilia Romagna (provinces of Modena, Parma, Piacenza, Reggio Emilia, and Rimini)
    – Marche (province of Pesaro Urbino)

    In the above areas:

    • Travel in and out of the area, as well as within the area, will only be possible in response to “duly verified professional requirements, emergency situations, or for health reasons”
    • People with symptoms of respiratory disease and fever of 37.5 Celsius or above are strongly encouraged to stay at home and limit social contact as much as possible, including with their doctor
    • Avoid gathering
    • All schools and universities must be closed
    • All museums and places of culture will be closed
    • All cultural, religious or festive events are suspended
    • Cinemas, pubs, theaters, dance schools, game rooms, casinos, nightclubs and other similar places shall remain closed
    • All sporting events and competitions are suspended
    • Ski resorts are closed until further notice
    • Swimming pools, sports halls, thermal baths, cultural centers and wellness centers must suspend their activities
    • Bars and restaurants can remain open from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. provided they respect the safety distance of at least 1 meter between customers – this provision also concerns other commercial activities
    • Shopping centers and department stores must remain closed on public holidays and the days preceding them
    • Places of worship remain open, provided that the safety distance of at least 1 meter is respected, but religious ceremonies (marriage, baptism) are prohibited until further notice

    National restrictions

    • As in the north of the country, cinemas, theaters, museums, pubs, game rooms, dance schools, discos and other similar places will be closed

    • Sports competitions are suspended with some exceptions

    That’s pretty severe disruption to their economy. What’s going on over there? This makes our initial travel bans seem wise. Of course, we didn’t realize Italy was going to be a hotspot, and many cases now in the U.S. are traced back to there. Italy currently has the most cases outside of China. But what accounts for Italy being hit so hard by a virus that began in China?

30. Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Influencer

    @DrewInWisconsin

    11:14 AM EDT ⋅ Mar 8, 2020

    Unsk (View Comment):

    Their is some speculation that the Cruise Line passenger who contracted the disease and then died in California actually contracted the disease in California before boarding which is seemingly borne out by working backward the time of incubation and the time the symptoms occurred. This speculation has led to other speculation that the disease has been spreading here a lot longer than originally thought , particularly in places like California that has hundreds of thousands of Chinese Nationals who may have traveled back and forth to China undetected. 

    That may be a scary thought as Jules worries, but it also may be a hopeful sign that we will not be hit as hard as other places around the world. It could be that the new Covid -19 CoronaVirus was in California as early as late December and that the particularly nasty flu that hit in Janurary/February was actually the CoronaVirus. 

    I am not a virologist, but it suggests to me that 1) it’s spread a lot farther in this country than anyone realizes (sneaking around like our seasonal flu), but therefore 2) it may not be as fatal as everyone fears.

    Heck, what do I know. I’m in self-soothing mode.