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The Latest Poll
Here is additional information strongly suggesting that Mitt Romney has a real shot at winning. Like the CNN poll cited in my post this morning, this one — a United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll — is based on a likely voter screen. It shows the race tied with each candidate drawing 47% of the votes:
The survey was conducted Sept. 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Romney led in the poll among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent, with both candidates winning more than 90 percent support from their respective parties. The survey had Obama winning 81 percent of the nonwhite vote and Romney carrying 55 percent of white voters.
In estimating the turnout on Nov. 6, the poll projects an electorate that is 74 percent white, 11 percent African-American, and 8 percent Latino. The likely-voter party splits are 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent independent.
The estimates are similar to the 2008 turnout, when, according to CNN exit polling, 74 percent of voters were white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino, with Democratic turnout at 39 percent, Republicans at 32 percent, and independents at 29 percent.
The poll also asked voters which party they would prefer to control the Congress. Democrats were favored there. A slim plurality of likely voters said they preferred that Democrats win enough seats to control the House and keep hold of the Senate, a positive sign for the party five weeks out from the election.
In assessing the poll, you should take note of the presumed ethnic and partisan turnout. It is weighted on the presumption that the partisan divide will be almost identical to what it was in 2008 and that the same will be true for the ethnic divide. In my judgment, neither is likely. The electorate is apt to be closer to that of 2010. In particular, the partisan weighting makes no sense. The year 2008 was an outlier in that particular, and in 2010 there was no partisan divide.
If you were to readjust this poll by reducing slightly the black turnout and by a bit more the Hispanic turnout and if you were to assume a much closer partisan divide of the sort shown by, say, Rasmussen, Romney would be ahead by a comfortable margin — which is what I take to be the case.
Keep this in mind — for it may be the last snapshot you get of the results of this campaign prior to all hell breaking loose. David Axelrod and those who have run Barack Obama’s campaigns have a way of unleashing damaging revelations about his opponents at crucial moments in the campaign. Obama himself has, however, never been on the receiving end. But, in a few minutes, if the Drudgereport can be trusted, Sean Hannity on Fox will play a tape of Barack Obama delivering, in the presence of the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, a racial tirade well worthy of that notorious bigot. We are, for the first time, about to meet the real Barack Obama.
Published in General
You can hear the roots of Michelle’s crusade in that speech: parents don’t know how to feed their kids, they need government instruction and oversight.
Eeyore vs. Rahe, Round….another.
The Obamazombies did not come out in 2010. They will be back this year. They dropped the black percentage points by 2: 13-11. That seems reasonable, but that could be +/- 1 off. That seems where they are accounting for much of the Obama enthusiasm lag this year. The number of ’08 black voters who come back is key.
They dropped the Latino vote percentage by 1: 9-8. I don’t know why. The registration in this demo has been solid, and there are more of them. The rate of immigration has dropped off with the bad economy, so that may be why.
The Tea Party was fired up in ’10, but many of the Ozombies who stayed home in ’10 will be back, so I don’t think the ’10 breakdown is accurate.
Where the turnout lies twixt ’08 and ’10 is the answer.
That said, any Black voter likely to be offended by him putting on that phony accent is probably not a likely Obama voter anyhow. ·2 hours ago
Allow me to second these comments. More offensive than the pandering words were the phony mannerisms Obama adopted for a black audience. It would be comical in any other context. This is our president? How did it come to this?
The latest tape, while offensive for its embarrassing condescension, will not turn away any Obama supporters. A tape could surface of Obama calling for white folks to be skinned alive and it wouldn’t cost him a single vote. He’s just bulletproof, thanks to the cool kids in the media and the growing dependent voter class who drink in what they’re told, and vote accordingly. We will be very lucky to limit him to one term.
True, to a point, but there is absolutely no chance that 2008 turnout will happen again. Look at all the groups Obama has turned off:
There will likely be fewer of these people voting for Obama, whether they just stay home or vote for Romney.
Romney’s line has been that Obama is a nice guy who is over his head. Nice guys don’t try to drum up hatred between people, much less lie to do it.
Barack Obama never beat the Chicago machine. He lost when he ran against the approved Congressional candidate. He won only when he joined the machine. Michelle’s father was one of the machine’s ward bosses.
Real shot at winning? You promised a landslide and we’ll settle for nothing less. Don’t go all wobbly on us now. ·5 hours ago
Worry not. To win a landslide one must be tolerably well position at the beginning of October. Romney is. That was my point.
The difficulty Romney faces is that so many of those who voted for Obama felt good about themselves because they helped elect the first black President. He has to get them to vote for him this time, and it is very hard to get people to admit to themselves that what they did was really stupid. What you describe is Romney’s attempt to get around this. “I understand why you voted for him, and I respect it. But he is in over his head.”
You and I and Romney and Ryan know better, of course.
The 2010 comparisons are pointless. We all know that midterm elections are skewed towards the most dedicated partisans and generally favor the party out of power. History suggests a midterm landslide says little about the following presidential contest (ex: 1948 and 1996).
Frankly, I find it depressing to watch normally astute conservatives engaged in such magical thinking. I understand that we don’t want to discourage Republican spirits, but we also don’t want to give the Romney campaign a false security that everything is just dandy.