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We keep losing with Trump
Yesterday, we lost a governor’s race in Kentucky, and both houses the Virginia legislature. For the first time since 1993, the Democrats control the Virginia Governorship and both houses of their legislature. In both races, we were slaughtered in the suburbs. One commentator has written, for the GOP, the suburbs are the new Florida. https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/06/opinions/kentucky-virginia-trump-stewart/index.html
George Will has written that the only way to teach a donkey something is with a two by four over the head. We got our first smack in November, 2017, when we went from a 2/3 margin in the Virginia House of Delegates to only a bare one vote margin. We got our second smack when a Democrat won a Senate Seat in Alabama in December 2017. We got our third smack in 2018 when Connor Lamb won in Pennsylvania. We got our fourth smack in November 2018 when the Democrats won back the House with 40 flips. (Virginia used to be 7-4 GOP in the House; it now is 7-4 Dem.) We have now gotten our fifth smack on the head with losing in Kentucky and Virginia. [Edit.: We also lost a bunch of local elections in Pennsylvania’s collar counties.)
Nathan Gonzales of Roll Call says that the most likely scenarios in order are:
- Eviction at 1600, with Trump losing, but us holding the Senate, and the Dems holding the House.
- Blue Washington, with Dems taking the Presidency, Senate and House.
- Status Quo, with Trump winning, and us holding the Senate and the Dems holding the House.
- Red Revival, with us taking the Presidency, Senate and House.
https://www.rollcall.com/news/a-year-out-heres-four-ways-2020-elections-could-go
But we can stick with Trump. There is a prescient article at The Bulwark, about the feeling when the GOP gets crushed at the polls and talk radio guys tell us to “Hug Trump Harder.” https://thebulwark.com/tfw-republicans-get-crushed-at-the-polls-and-talk-radio-guys-say-hug-trump-tighter/
The Emperor has no clothes. You can keep backing him, but he is a losing bet for the party.
Published in General
Given the evidence of the Quid Pro Quo, etc., I think that any Republican would perform better than Trump in 2020. Of course, doggone any Republican would have likely won in 2016, given the history of Americans alternating between the two parties usually every 8 years.
Take you head out of your duffle bag. Bevin lost by less than 5K votes when he had had a 28% approval rating before Trump showed up to campaign for him. Sure; Trump was a drag on Bevin’s campaign.
And the KY Libertarian Party is already bragging about splitting the vote and throwing the election to the idiot Democrat. Standard Disclaimer: Not all Democrats are idiots, but Beshear does a convincing impression.
From the LPK Facebook post after the election:
“In an ideal world, we elect Libertarian candidates and advance liberty. Failing that, we push mainstream candidates towards liberty to advance the cause…” “But if we can’t do those things, we are always happy to split the vote in a way that causes delicious tears. Tonight there are plenty of delicious tears from Bevin supporters.”
I mean, the lesson I’m taking is that we should fire the green-eye-shades brigade. Bevin was killed over pensions, same way Walker was killed a few years ago. Virginia is trending left because of hostility among the NoVa bureaucracy and lobby to small government Republican policies.
So, hey, throw money at the problems until they go away. Then we can win.
Though I doubt that’s actually the lesson anyone wants to take.
The reason we have Trump is because we lost terribly with McCain (lost by 192 electoral votes) and lost terribly with Romney (lost by 126 electoral votes). Trump stepped up, and won by 77 electoral votes.
For the losses in Kentucky and Virginia, why aren’t you blaming the actual candidates in Kentucky and Virginia? Blaming Trump for those losses makes about as much sense as blaming, oh, say, Gary Robbins.
It is time to demolish the canard that Trump was the only Republican who could have won in 2016. The truth of the matter is that almost any Republican would have won in 2016, and that Trump barely won.
The 22nd Amendment was adopted in 1951, which established a two-term limit on Presidents. The American people have gone one better. They have practically established a two-term limit on the two political parties, a pattern which has persisted in 15 of 17 elections since 1951!
In each election, the question is if the party in power is on their first or second term.
Here are the results since the 22nd Amendment was adopted in 1951:
1952 Republicans
1956 Republicans
1960 Democrats
1964 Democrats
1968 Republicans
1972 Republicans
1976 Democrats
1980 Republicans (Jimmy Carter was a disaster)
1984 Republicans
1988 Republicans (George H.W. Bush was elected to Reagan’s third term.)
1992 Democrats
1996 Democrats
2000 Republicans
2004 Republicans
2008 Democrats
2012 Democrats
2016 Republicans
I have read people fault McCain for losing to Obama. Nonsense. After two terms of a Republican President, the American People were ready to give the Democrats a chance, which had been the history other than in 1988.
Others fault Romney for losing to Obama. Nonsense. Unless Obama had been a Carter-like disaster, the Democrats were going to retain the Presidency, which had been the history other than in 1980.
Almost any Republican was going to win in 2016. It was our year. Unfortunately, instead of nominating a conservative, we decided to nominate a populist. Hopefully we can remedy that mistake in the 2020 primaries and nominate a conservative like Nikki Haley.
I think that there is a strong consensus that Bevin was an unpopular governor in Kentucky. As for Virginia, I note that before the 2018 elections, the delegation was 7-4 Republican and that after the 2018 elections, it is now 7-4 Democrat.
@Gary – I’ve read most of the comments and I don’t see where anyone claims that Trump is the only R who could have won in 2016.
With literally millions of people in this country, that would be a silly claim. I’m sure there more than a few similar types who could have, and would have, appealed to voters.
Regardless, the fact remains that out of the candidates that did run, he is on only candidate who did win.
In comment #34 Don Tillman said:
“The reason we have Trump is because we lost terribly with McCain (lost by 192 electoral votes) and lost terribly with Romney (lost by 126 electoral votes). Trump stepped up, and won by 77 electoral votes.”
Yes they are known disinformation sites.
It must be nice to feel you are in a position to “thrive” under 4 ( or likely 8) years of a Hillary Clinton administration.
With all the lamenting of losing a Governorship of Kentucky and some seats in Virginia which has been trending Democrat for several cycles pre-Trump.
You claim by default that conservatives would “thrive” with a 6-3 hard left Supreme Court. Not to mention all the other horrors that would ensue…
Either you are a pathetic conservative or a spectacularly bad strategist. Either way you aren’t on my team.
We keep losing with Trump
Where are you getting this “WE” thing.
You and Bulwark evidently want Trump to be the cause of (R) losses, so if you desire (R) losses to prove your “Everything Trump Touches Dies” thesis, that would make you a “THEY”, not a “WE”.
I have been a conservative and a Republican many, many years before Trump.
So you respond to the comment: “The reason we have Trump is because we lost terribly with McCain (lost by 192 electoral votes) and lost terribly with Romney (lost by 126 electoral votes). Trump stepped up, and won by 77 electoral votes.”
with
“It is time to demolish the canard that Trump was the only Republican who could have won in 2016. The truth of the matter is that almost any Republican would have won in 2016, and that Trump barely won.”
So … you’re saying that “any Republican” would have won in 2016. Unfortunately, that candidate would have had to win sufficient primaries to garner the nomination. Which all the R’s – save Trump – in the field failed to do.
Yes. Next question. Gary this should be happy news to you. Soon you will have Elizabeth Warren to cheer.
Not as bad as it was when I quit a year or so ago. I came back and it’s better.
My understanding is that “Green Billionaires” flooded the state with money. There are billions and trillions being made from “Climate Change/Global Warming/AGW. These people are not stupid. Only their voters are. The Green energy thing has destroyed California and will destroy Virginia. It has been moving along in Colorado.
Just remember, those billionaires all got rich from federal subsidies. Also known as taxes. Why do you think we still have a trillion dollar deficit in spite of an economic boom ?
Dutifully posted by the resident stoolie as part of the next gaslighting campaign (or at least as repetitive filler twaddle between campaigns) is not exactly what I would call “discussed earnestly.” And it is worth noting that it was identified for what it is and reduced to a punching bag for the rest of the neighborhood by the fourth comment. I understand you being annoyed with it (most of us are) but at least it shows that this is a relatively healthy community overall.
The more annoying thing to me is when he avoids serious engagement on his points and just starts cutting and pasting the same old bubble gum analysis about the 22nd Amendment. And just when you think it cannot get any more sophomoric he drops the line about “Given the evidence of the Quid Pro Quo, etc….” and you can no longer deny that he is not here [in] good faith and he is clearly not what he claims to be. I think there is a word for such a provopcative fraud on forums like this but it seems to escape me at the moment…
Annefy, put aside your differences with Gary and me on Trump – do you think the primary system in 2016 really “worked?” I mean, selected the best candidate for our party? Had we had leaders that rejected Trump on principle, do you think Hillary would have been more appealing to the voters that rejected her?
Too bad you changed out of spite. You and Romney.
Bingo, Virginia has become the commonwealth of bureaucratics and Dems the party of the big state. That is like Texas voting for the drill baby drill candidate. Except for more oil makes lives better and more government makes lives worse.
“Who is we?”
That’s the question that I had too, Kimosabe.
So by “worked” you mean, in your opinion, the “best” candidate didn’t win the nomination?
So, if it didn’t “work”, the voters were “wrong”? (I was not one of those voters, BTW)
That makes as much sense as me saying that the presidential election of 2012 didn’t really “work” as Obama won.
You need a better verb.
Proposal: I’ll stop pontificating on Arizona politics if you stop with the “analysis” of Virginia. Of course, I don’t pontificate on Arizona because I’m a few thousand miles away, but that’s kind of the point.
I was waiting for this, Gary. I could write a computer program to create these columns.
Realistically, we have done this a thousand times. This changes nothing. I know I would rather take a 2×4 to George Will than listen to more condescending garbage about how we need to run begging to Bill Kristol & co to save us
Annefy answered, but I’ll chime in here as well.
I think that almost any other candidate would have withered under the fire the Democrats were prepared to bring at any Republican nominee. I believe that none of the “major” candidates would have survived that. Not Rubio, not Christie, not Walker, not Perry, not Cruz, and certainly not Jeb!. Based on this, I do think the 2016 primary “worked.”
I was wondering how long it would be before you turned up with the DNC talking points. Contributed to any Donk primary candidates yet?
Meanwhile out here in suburban Idaho, our little town threw out the Democrat mayor and the D-BerneyBro council member that he had appointed, and voted in R’s to replace them. (It’s nominally a non-partisan race, but everyone knows who the sheep and goats are…) Trump was not even mentioned, the big issue was local growth, and the attempt of the mayor and council to create an Oregon-style Urban Growth Boundary by stealth, with overbuilt apartments in the center and overpriced developments outside town.
I agree with the above. While the attacks against Trump have been extraordinary, I believe it’s the new normal.
Donald Trump has proven that he’s uniquely qualified to withstand incoming fire. In fact, he seems to thrive.
In a perfect world, the media and the Dems will ditch the strategy. (Magic 8-Ball says “unlikely”)
I also believe any of the other R candidates would have thrown Bret Kavannaugh overboard. For that, I will always be grateful for Donald Trump.
Yeah, those suburbanites Gary goes on and on about are offended by Trump but not their baby-killing, blackface wearing governor or MS-13 rapists on the lose. Way to go GOPe, you’re like those Jews that helped their Nazi oppressors.
And the Northern Virginia masses are moving out to the far suburbs and even the rural areas to escape the DC madness. Of course, they bring their voting habits with them. I live in a developing community in far Northwestern Virginia, still relatively conservative. I’ve had numerous new neighbors tell me they moved to escape the Fairfax congestion and taxes, but they had signs on their lawn for the Democratic House and Senate candidates.
The Democratic wave has engulfed Prince William and Loudon counties, and is continuing to creep westward. It has nothing to do with Trump.
Edit: Also, 10 of the 40 Virginia Senate races had NO republican candidate, and 23 of the 100 House races had NO Republican running. I guess we can blame Trump for that.
Democracy has to mean more than three wolves and a lamb voting on what’s for dinner.
The Republican Party used to stand for the proposition that no amount of government subsidies and handouts could substitute for individual character and personal responsibility. That’s how Ronald Reagan turned me from a leftie to a conservative.
I think our party did not do it’s job and that Trump was manifestly far outside the “big tent” philosophy we should have enforced. No matter how big it has to have an inside and an outside.
I know we disagree and I won’t belabor the issue, but I think if you stand for nothing you’ll fall for anything, and that’s what happened to the party in 2016.
Thanks for responding and being civil even though we disagree.
Bush, Obama, and Trump are all better at inspiring the opposition than inspiring their supports. And none had coattails.