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Should Mark Steyn Lighten Up?
Glenn Reynolds calls our attention this morning to a piece in Forbes, written by John Tamny, entitled “Mark Steyn Resides In a Crowded — and Centuries Old — Echo Chamber of ‘American Doom'”. Here’s a sample:
Mark Steyn is easily one of the most entertaining – and frequently insightful – opinion writers in existence today. Agree or disagree, his National Review op-eds count as a must-read for many – including this writer – as evidenced by his popularity.
But right or wrong, and it says here that Steyn is wrong, one of his most popular modern narratives is the one about how the U.S.’s best days are behind it. To quote Steyn from a recent book, After America, “the prevailing political realities of the United States do not allow for any meaningful course correction,” and “without meaningful course correction, America is doomed.” …
To be blunt, ‘America’ has been ‘doomed’ for longer than the United States has even existed as a country. Steyn has entered an echo chamber of doomsayers that is long in tooth, and that could fill many Rose Bowls. Maybe Steyn is correct this time despite joining a chorus of naysayers who’ve always been wrong, but even if correct, it seems he misreads what ‘doom’ is, or what it will look like.
Tamny then goes on to assess the soundness of Steyn’s arguments regarding particular cases in point: long-term demographics, immigration, budget deficits. He concludes that Steyn’s overall take is narrow and unnecessarily fraught:
No doubt we can do much better, better in the sense that without all the barriers erected by government that our present lifestyle of plenty would seem like Haiti relative to what we could be economically. But to posit as Steyn and others have for centuries, that we’re on the path to destruction is not credible. And as evidenced by the massive capital inflows that our productive are still entrusted to deploy, markets confirm this basic assertion.
To be clear, ‘doom’ per Steyn’s definition isn’t some horrid future that never seems to reveal itself despite centuries of predictions offered up by our wise commentariat. Instead, ‘doom’ is today, it’s the ‘unseen,’ it’s what we don’t have when it comes to future Googles and Intels, cancer and heart disease cures, and transportation advances that would make the automobile and the airplane seem positively pedestrian. That’s what Steyn and the chorus of doomsayers might be talking about were they not so blinded by inconsequential notions of birthrate, unwashed immigrants who renew us, and deficits that investors line up to buy the income streams of.
So who’s right? Is Steyn a crotchety old coot, or is Tamny a pie-in-the-sky goofball?
In a funny way, the very quality of Steyn’s writing tends to make me suspect his conclusions a little. It’s too seductive. Reading him always gives me an uneasy feeling that I’m being lured down the path of despair by dazzling turns of phrase. I confess that I have not yet read After America because I’m afraid I won’t be able to resist Steyn’s rhetorical juggernaut. There’s only so much lacerating wit I can withstand before I swoon — and then where would I be?
I know there are many Steyn fans here at Ricochet. What do you feel, in your heart of hearts? Do you agree with him that America is down for the count? And if so, I have to ask: what are we all still yammering about?
Published in General
I don’t see these as mutually exclusive.
The key point for Steyn is that “meaningful course correction is no longer possible.” That seems to me undeniable… there is no chance that a government will be elected that is willing to take the necessary steps in cutting government spending to avoid catastrophe. The people are simply not willing to tolerate it; that’s why even the most right-wing Republican proposals are tame by the standards of what is really necessary. This will not change until events forces the American voting public to face reality.
The comments are great. I believe his doom and gloom to be true: the debt, and this are the leading trends in that direction. Plus, our political/media culture is totally Orwellian and infecting society. If we keep on the current trajectory things look grim, indeed.
I also think things can turn around very quickly if we get the right leaders in office. Civilization seems to mean staving off the barbarians over and over and for as long as possible.
I wonder for those of us who believe in the real possibility of bad times ahead…are we really preparing in case they happen? I know my husband and I have really lowered our financial risk taking and are thinking more long-term but don’t want to totally limit ourselves. Will we be sorry?
Mark Steyn does not declare “Doom” for the sake of doomsmanship. His books have demonstrated a deep understanding of history, demographics and current events. Current trends do indicate doom.
To me that does NOT mean doom is foretold. And honestly I don’t think Steyn believes that either. I like to think he is issuing a clarion call – his writing and speaking style are often light which helps balance his heavy message. I only hope enough people are receptive to the message.
When you look down and see thin ice, then look up and see Democrats jumping up and down, a plunge isn’t hard to predict. ·1 hour ago
Well put!
The 17 trillion you speak of is but the immediate debt!
If we were sitting across the table at our bank, asking a loan officer for a mortgage, all our ‘unfunded obligations’ would be included in the evaluation.
By comparison with the debt we are ‘bequeathing’ to our grand children, 17 trillion is a paltry sum.
The thing is–our nation has been in a pickle many, many times in the past. I know that many of our current problems are deeply cultural and therefore hard to change, but I also know that history has a way of surprising us. Also, I’ve been reading recently that his demographic predictions about the Muslim world are not playing out as planned–places like Iran have experienced a demographic collapse in recent years that has left them in despair. I’m not sure about the Muslim communities in European countries, but it is normal for immigrants to follow the demographic trajectory of the host country even if they resist the culture in general. I do think the Western world has a demographic problem, but perhaps not so much vis-a-vis the Muslim world as Steyn has predicted. ·17 minutes ago
…and our moral problems overshadow our demographic one!
I know there are many Steyn fans here at Ricochet. What do you feel, in your heart of hearts? Do you agree with him that America is down for the count? And if so, I have to ask: what are we all still yammering about?
America can live off the accumulated results of it’s past exceptionalism for decades yet, but there is a cliff ahead and we are stepping on the gas as we head for it. Tamny’s “don’t worry, be happy” attitude, shared by most Americans (and apparently by all Democrats), is why we seem certain to go off that cliff. That’s what we’re yammering about.
Well put!
The 17 trillion you speak of is but the immediate debt!
If we were sitting across the table at our bank, asking a loan officer for a mortgage, all our ‘unfunded obligations’ would be included in the evaluation.
By comparison with the debt we are ‘bequeathing’ to our grand children, 17 trillion is a paltry sum. ·28 minutes ago
I wouldn’t worry too much about it …
Promises that can’t be kept, won’t be. If you really think Millenials will willingly add all the debt it will take to pay out SS welfare and Medicare checks to keep the Boomers in their expected level of comfort, you’re going to be surprised.
I’m seeing this with these Obamacare fines being mailed out; even the apolitical and liberal folks of my generation are becoming mad as hell and we aren’t going to take forever.
In previous periods of civilizational decline, the call went out for madder music and stronger wine. We got that in full measure in the ‘Sixties when the slide began. People only grew their hair long then. Now they tattoo their bodies in a way that a South Sea islander in the time of Captain Cook couldn’t even imagine. I’d love to read Steyn’s riff on that.
I love Steyn, I love his writing, and it’s clear to anyone looking that the U.S. is on the wrong path. That said, if I’m going to sit here and say that I believe the U.S. is “doomed”, then why am I even worrying about it at this point? I should just sit back, light a cigar, and drink scotch until it all comes crashing down around us.
I have no doubt we are rolling inexorably downhill. Our book club read After America and it is an insightful book.
I love reading Steyn, and his great skill is making discussions about demographics and their consequences (as well as any other topic) interesting to read. I generally agree with his conclusions, but I wonder/hope perhaps his analysis might sometimes be too static. I think of Paul Ehrlich and catastrophic population growth scenarios from the 70s, and I hope Steyn is just as wrong in the long term.
Steyn is only projecting forward what America is choosing in its Presidential elections.
Yes–the kind of surprising scenario I’m talking about could be related to Obamacare. These huge increases in premiums could get people riled up in a way nothing else has. Stay tuned folks–the ride is going to get even more interesting!
Steyn is brilliant.
No one will be correct in all of their predictions but I enjoy reading him because he gets to the heart of most problems and it’s important to have voices of warning.
I also like his hopeful notes because they aren’t political in nature. His hopeful advice typically comes down to individuals, families, neighborhoods and communities prizing their liberty, asserting their liberty and taking care of their own problems.
Look, its not that bad yet because nobody’s taking it seriously in the political class, certainly not enough to do anything about it. This goes for Democrats and Republicans.
We haven’t reached the crisis point yet. When we do, either the serious people will come together and make the necessary changes, or they won’t and things will be over.
What’s the definition of doomed?
From a technological standpoint, we’re doing ok and will continue to do so until environmentalism finally snuffs that out.
From most other perspectives, things have been in decline for a century or more. I’m glad that slavery was abolished but that is an extension of the 18th century philosophy of natural rights. All that’s new is philosophy that tells us nothing about the universe, mob rule in politics, socialism in economics and ugly, ugly art (or frauds masquerading as artists).
The point at which technological advancement stops will be a terrifying moment of reckoning. Will it necessarily be a moment when we are all huddled in makeshift shelters trying to avoiding bands of roving bandits? Probably not. But it will be bleak and it will feel hopeless.
This ebbs and flows. In some areas we have more freedom and in some areas we have less freedom. We’d done away with laws against miscegenation. We’ve done away with legal segregation. We’ve outlawed marital rape. Women can vote and own property. Ditto for black people.
We have greater freedoms in some areas and less in others.
And please don’t blame technology. Almost all technology is morally neutral. The same pistol used in armed robbery can be used by someone to defend themselves. Radio can be used to spread ideas or to spread propaganda. That goes for almost all technology in any time period.
When I think of the word, “doomed,” I imagine a man who jumped out of a plane at 10,000 feet without a parachute, and is now 10 feet above the ground. He’s breathing. Thinking. Feeling. Seeing. Hearing. By any medical criteria, he’s alive. But in actuality, he’s dead because there’s no way to soften the sudden stop at the bottom.
As for Uncle Sam, he jumped out of the plane without a parachute a long time ago. Luckily, at this point, he’s probably 5,000 feet above the ground. And, there are others in the air who are storming toward him with an extra parachute in an attempt to save him.
The problem is the Uncle Sam seems intent on fighting those saviors if any of them get close. In fact, he seems to believe the ground doesn’t exist–as if he were falling in a bottomless pit–despite him knowing others have fallen and splattered. Uncle Sam thinks he’s on a thrill ride.
Are we doomed? Yes, if we can’t knock Uncle Sam out and put the parachute on him before he hits the ground.
They have both lived through Britain’s past 50 years of socialism and watched the results.
I fear he is right, but I haven’t liquidated my IRA and moved into the mountains yet. In other words, I hope he is wrong.
Edited 28 minutes ago
But isn’t it so much more than “demographics and their consequences”?
The character of our people and what they hold dear is far more important, and it isn’t pretty!
We haven’t reached the crisis point yet. When we do, either the serious people will come together and make the necessary changes, or they won’t and things will be over. ·29 minutes ago
…and the third, possible scenario is that people will come together to make the ‘necessary’ changes and they won’t be able to because they waited too long, for a tsunami destroys all in its path.
…and the third, possible scenario is that people will come together to make the ‘necessary’ changes and they won’t be able to because they waited too long, for a tsunami destroys all in its path. ·in 0 minutes
I’m a gradualist, so I don’t necessarily believe in tsunamis.
It won’t be a walk in the tulips, it’s just that it’ll just be a transformation into something else.
But nobody’s taking this seriously yet. Reid has his Cowboy Poetry Festival and McConnell has some stupid lock and damn project that was part of the deal to reopen the government.
This is just a game to them, the same circle jerk that it always is, which tells me that its not high stakes yet. They’re clowns and boobs, but if it was high enough stakes then the powerful people outside of government would apply enough pressure to get things done.
“deficits that investors line up to buy the income streams of” Wait, what? And you expect this to … continue? (Not as though selling debt has caused us any problems in, say, the past five/six years, right?) I’m no great fan of fmr Sen. Jim Webb, but I’m going to borrow from one his novels here, because he nailed it so beautifully, “You know what you’re missing, Judith? The understanding of how fragile this country is.” 200 years is the blink of an eye. We are facing problems that are borderline “existential.” We may solve them, but if we do, it’ll owe more to cautious urgency than complacent optimism. Millennials think of the Cold War (if they think of it at all) as some sort of cakewalk, a vague bit of history with a foregone conclusion that somehow led ineluctably to the iPhone. We could just as easily by flying the Red Flag over the Capitol building or grubbing for worms in a post-thermonuclear Dark Age. Be vigilant and take History seriously. Yes, Doomsayers have always been with us. And sometimes they’ve been right.
…and the third, possible scenario is that people will come together to make the ‘necessary’ changes and they won’t be able to because they waited too long, for a tsunami destroys all in its path. ·6 minutes ago
I heard it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, and aeroplanes…
Tamny then goes on to assess the soundness of Steyn’s arguments regarding particular cases in point: long-term demographics, immigration, budget deficits.
I don’t see Tamny refuting Steyn’s main point, that there is currently no effective mechanism of course correction.
We haven’t reached the crisis point yet. When we do, either the serious people will come together and make the necessary changes, or they won’t and things will be over. ·53 minutes ago
When we reach the point where the buffoons you highlight acknowledge the damage we have instructed them to do we will not have sufficient resources to recover. Hence the reason for sounding the alarm now.
…and the third, possible scenario is that people will come together to make the ‘necessary’ changes and they won’t be able to because they waited too long, for a tsunami destroys all in its path. ·6 minutes ago
I heard it starts with an earthquake, birds and snakes, and aeroplanes… ·5 minutes ago
And Lenny Bruce is not afraid.
The rest of us probably should be.