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Woke: The Coming “Red Wave”*
All the Dems have done is awaken a sleeping giant.
* While I dislike the exaggerated and hyperbolic language of the media regarding the upcoming midterms as some sort of major global storm (most laughable is tsunami), I’ll go with it here since it seems to be the rage. However, as was previously well done by @valiuth, let’s define the term as I use it here. My use of Red Wave means:
- Republicans add seats to their control of the Senate; and
- Republicans keep control of the House (narrowly or not).
I previously posted a hopeful prediction (with lesser confidence) back in July … Slouching Toward a Red Wave. I’d like to update that prediction now with much more confidence. Let’s use three significant new current events once again, shall we?
First up is the nomination of Justice Kavanaugh. The impact of this travesty of justice at the hands of scurrilous Democrat senators has already been amply discussed at length. What it has succeeded in doing is to motivate the GOP voters to come out for this November’s midterm elections in force. What had previously been a deficit in the “enthusiasm gap” between the Dems and the GOP has evaporated. Midterm elections have historically been very bad for the party in the WH. Look for a 2002 or 1934 result this November. Thanks, Spartacus! Corey, meet a real Spartacus named Lindsey!
Second are the mobs. Whether in restaurants, GOP headquarters or on the streets of Portland, normal Americans do not like violence or civil unrest in our free country. We particularly don’t like it when it is being incited by the so-called leaders of a political party. Hillary “yes, she’s still running” Clinton defends and advocates for uncivil actions.
Lastly, one of the saddest lies from the Democratic Party of today is that they still claim to be the party of the common man, or even worse “The Children.” Nothing could be further from the truth. We are finding that the common man in both Latino and African-American communities are actually better off economically under the policies of the Trump administration. And people are noticing the empty rhetoric of the socialist Dems. #WalkAway is real and growing.
And regarding “the children,” go see the movie Gosnell. This is a powerful portrayal of the evil of abortion. This is not the party “for the children.” That is a sickening mockery of the truth. This will make a difference in November.
The Democrats are very angry. They have revealed their inner Antifa. The American people have noticed. Independents have noticed. The Dems have jumped the shark and this coming “Red Wave” is all of their own doing.
So Dems …. in the immortal words of Nancy … embrace the suck!
Not true. Consider the source of the poll…..It’s called propaganda and both side play that game depending on the circumstances. Look at Nate’s variability just 4 months prior to the 2016 election, do you really think the variation of Trump support was over 400% (from ~10% to ~50%?).
The real polling data that the teams pay for are not to be shared.
Wow! Colombo sounds like a coach giving a half-time locker room pep talk. The only Red Wave coming to this country is the old Communist Red. The assumption that the American people and Independents have noticed is wishful thinking. Your quite right that the Dems are angry. They feed off anger. And they do a good, if not legal, job of stoking up their idiot MOB. But it works in this environment. And the stupid millennials love it.
Even if the American people and Independents have noticed, as Colombo contends, decent people are worn out and often feel it futile to react to irrational conduct. Some won’t speak out for fear of being targeted by their Democratic neighbors. But many are not so decent. They hate Trump and are willing to overlook what the Party has become.
I understand these comments are a get out the vote effort. Great! But, i/m/o, the barbarians are at the gates, if not already inside. The people directing the rhetoric, the protests, the violence are right out of the Marxist playbook. They call themselves liberals, some even go so far as Socialist, but this is what Communism looks like, sounds like and acts like. And it won’t go away regardless of the outcome of the vote.
The smart ones, who aren’t by nature hard left, go along because they see a winner (a sound investment). Patronage is, always has been, and always will be a big part of politics. Jobs, jobs, jobs, but in government. Bloomberg, who doesn’t need a job, a grant, a loan, or a construction contract, only wants to be president.
And now ‘Coach’ Columbo echoes Coach V by saying …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZgEgyNGKx0M
As much as I’d love for you to be right, I don’t see it. folks riled up by the Kavanaugh treatment are likely to have lost motivation by time to vote. The Dims will take the house which is going to make the next two years nasty indeed.
Michigan is going Blue Wave. We are embracing our socialist past and searching for the dustbin of history. Hopefully the rest of the USA is less stupid.
The betting markets give us better than 1-in-3. People who bet lose money if they’re wrong. If Nate Silver gets this election wrong, I guess he’ll just blame liberals who got mad at him for giving Republicans any chance at all of winning. Apparently he would rather position himself in the reasonable middle than be right. Sad…
Polling data will serve the same purpose as it did in 2016: assure stoned millennials and certain other liberal demographic groups that they don’t need to do the hard work of putting down the bong and actually voting.
That reminds me of the story, perhaps repeated on a recent GLoP, about the guy who was so mad about having lost his job and his wife and his kids etc, I think during the Obama years, that he finally put down his crack pipe and tried to fly his private plane into the White House.
Hey, the guy has a business to run. Like doctors, pollsters bury their mistakes. Only they use a barrage of verbal diarrhea and hand gestures while invoking the gods of mathematics.
If Nate Silver was interested in burying his mistakes, he wouldn’t still have the 2016 election page up on the website, and he wouldn’t talk about it on his podcast.
He has a different brand than that. His brand has to do with prediction models and math. He’s invested in the models being as accurate as possible in terms of predictions.
After the last election, it sounded like his brand was about making excuses for why he was wrong.
Actually, if you listen to what he says, he mostly explains how people (falsely) claim he was wrong, mostly because they don’t understand how polling or probability or predictions or basic math works.
I know how statistics works. I’ve taken several graduate level STAT courses. But if your job is to tell America which jerk(s) will run the country in January of next year, you should try to be right. Furthermore, he can’t hide behind accurate popular vote predictions. You’d think that a guy who runs a site called 538 would try to take into consideration the arcane mechanisms by which power is actually distributed at the federal level.
I understand. He gave Trump about a 30% chance of winning. Trump won. He should have given the winner a better than 50% chance of winning. If he had he would have been right. The fact that others were wronger is no defense for being wrong.
I have staked my membership on Republicans holding the House and Senate. If I’m wrong I will do what no second rate blowhard stat geek ever does: I will shut up and go away. Others hold their respective manhoods cheaper.
You can’t say Nate Silver wasn’t wrong “because math”. That’s nonsense. And condescending. I probably have a more extensive math background than Nate Silver.
I also have a serious engineering background, which applies math in the real world, and provides rewards when it works correctly. That’s important.
In polling (in general, these days) there is no reward or incentive to be correct, and there is no disincentive to be incorrect.
And there is a substantial incentive to bias poll results for a particular campaign, in a particular way, at a particular time, to have the most effect. That’s how you make money.
Example: Anytime anybody, perhaps Fred, references a Nate Silver poll as a reasonable source. Nate Silver can be wrong as wrong can be, 180 degrees wrong, and he’ll still get referenced more than anybody else.
Example: Nate Silver started his political polling work at The Daily Kos, a wildly left wing web site that supports the Democrat party. And he did it under a pseudonym.
Example: Nate Silver publishes his numbers to far more decimal places than is reasonable, violating one of the basic rules of statistics (Wikipedia: Accuracy and Precision). The incentives are to 1., appear to have more mathfulness and accuracy than he really does, and 2., bring in more eyeball clicks because the numbers are changing 10 or 100 times as much.
Thats not how…
Can someone else explain this to him?
Sure. I’ll give it a shot.
Nate Silver essentially predicted that Hillary was going to win. He put a number on it, but it didn’t really matter what the number was. As long as her percentage was more than 50% he was essentially saying “She’ll win.” Just like you did. Both of you were wrong. That you were wronger than Nate Silver doesn’t mean Nate Silver was right.
Sure, the way Nate Silver makes his predictions he can never be wrong. (unless he was stupid enough to claim something was 100% certain)If some one has a 1 in 100 chance of winning that means that if the election were held 100 times, that guy would win 1 election.
If that guy with 1 in 100 chance wins ,Nate Silver will say see I was right, I told you there was a chance he could win.
Please take up the recommendation to see Gosnell. The film was shown on the recent Steyn at Sea Cruise. It is a very important film which has been hobbled at every stage. Encourage your local cinema to show it and bring out your friends.
The Democrats almost to a race are out fund raising Republican by wide, wide margins. Will money buy victory in political contests? GOP (and Democrat) political consultants will tell you so. The polls when you sort through them tell a slightly different story. There is still time for all kinds of shenanigans.
My system is even better! I figure the chances of something happening are either 0% or 100%, depending on whether or not it happens.
He was wrong. I was right. That’s all.
Amazing, I was about to write this word for word. It’s amazing to me that such common sense cannot penetrate Fred’s troll armor.
I wonder if Nate Silver understands the solution to the Monty Hall/Let’s Make a Deal problem? It’s a real study in probabilities and how they can be misunderstood
Maybe he’s just happy to have found a gig that people will pay him for, regardless of his accuracy/performance?
ke,
You have seen into the souls of most of the MSM. You are clairvoyant.
Regards,
Jim
I wonder if he’s as good at math as Lou Costello?