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We May Not See the Tsunami Until It Is Upon Us
In two recent posts I discussed forecasts for the November midterms, including predictions about the potential for a Blue Wave and the odds of Republicans maintaining control of the Senate. But those polling numbers, interesting as they are, may not capture an aspect of the forthcoming blue wave. That aspect was touched on recently by both Sen. Ben Sasse on the latest episode of The Remnant and Harry Enten writing at CNN: Turnout sometimes just overwhelms the polling.*
It’s important to understand how pollsters operate. They don’t just call up 1,038 random people and the chips fall where they may. Pollsters balance the sample they look at based on what they think turnout will look like on Election Day. Using dissimilar turnout models, two different pollsters, working from the same data set, could come up with different numbers. So pollsters make educated guesses as to what the turnout will be in a various elections, based on voter enthusiasm.
In wave elections, pollsters underestimate voter turnout in favor of the party benefiting from the wave.
Enten went back to 2006 and looked at polling data at this point in the cycle as compared to performance on Election Day. The party that won the national House popular vote overperformed polling at this point by about three points. So if Democrats are currently ahead in the generic congressional ballot by an average of D+8.3 then, well, you can do that math, but it looks like they’re going to have a big night.
Enten also looked at individual district polls and found that the effect is larger in district polls. In 2006, the average district poll had Dems down by 1.5 points, and they ended up winning by, on average, four points. So if you look at individual polls, add another 5.5 points.
And that’s just the average! I think it’s fair to say we are in extraordinary political times. Despite a hot economy, presidential disapproval is over 50 percent. The one issue on the ballot this November, the issue that’s driving Democratic enthusiasm, is the President. If take a look at FiveThirtyEight’s map forecasting every congressional district, there are lots of districts marked as leaning Republican that could get swept up in a big wave of Democratic turnout.
At the same time that Democrats are eager to get to the polls, Republicans may not be as motivated. A recent poll showed that a majority of Republican voters don’t think the Democrats will take control of the House, including 57 percent of those who strongly support the President. (This perception is no doubt bolstered by talk about a Red Wave.)
And maybe there will be a Red Wave. Maybe, despite historic presidential unpopularity, the historical trend for the party controlling the White House to lose seats in midterm elections, Americans’ preference for divided government, and polling data, the Republicans might keep control of the House.
But I wouldn’t bet on it. In fact, I’d bet the other way: that there will be an enormous Democratic turnout, and the predictions of modest Democratic gains will turn out to be incorrect, and that it will be a big night for the Democrats.
*That may be a direct quote or close paraphrase of Sen. Sasse. I wasn’t able to find the precise words skimming back through the podcast.
Published in General
Who are you kidding? You’re not just betting, you’re hoping.
That’s kind of irrelevant to the question, isn’t it?
“What do you mean ‘we,’ white man?”
About that blue wave…
That makes me want to sing …
No. Confirmation bias. Pollsters have it. You have it. Members of the board have it. It’s why you might as well be looking at pig innards. About as useful.
Zzzzzzzzzz . . .
Yeah. All humans have it. That’s why 57% of Trump supporters don’t think there’s a blue wave coming.
Good analysts and good pollsters do their best to mitigate their personal biases. One of the reason we don’t look at a single poll, but rather averages, is because it helps to mitigate biases and other problems that you get from looking at an individual poll.
It’s not a trick. It’s not a gimmick. It’s not a conspiracy. It’s what good analysts do. You don’t cherry pick individual data, you look at the data more broadly.
Are there normal Democrats left?
Also, “Tsumani!”
Drink!
Commentator posts such as this one are as common as dust throughout the internet and indeed throughout all forms of print and legacy electronic media. The viewpoints expressed are by no means original. Rather they sing a ubiquitous tune that can be heard at all times everywhere, whenever and whenever one turns to local news, local sports, entertainment, national or international events or even intimate family discussion. I am tired, very tired of this. If the Contributor in questions feels that my comment represent a hecker’s veto, then so be it. I’m sure his faith in the Truths of Libertarian Purity or the glories of the (very distant) Reaganesque past will remain undiminished.
I believe that Trump would have worked with (i.e., done deals with) characters like Chuck Schumer or Nancy of S.F. if they’d gone one-tenth of the distance needed to recognize him as President. Doing deals with adversaries is what Trump lives for. He’s the most non idealogical President since Eisenhower. By giving up any possibility of leverage with Trump they’ve decided for scorched earth and the conceivably the destruction of our country. Whatever the Commentator thinks, this tragedy cannot be laid at the feet of Trump. The Commentator’s glee at the ongoing chaos is most unbecoming and not what I turn to Ricochet for.
The conventional wisdom says GOP will lose the House, and with a 50/50 country, the Senate possibly is in play. Sometimes the conventional wisdom is wrong. We all hope it is. But it becomes conventional wisdom because it’s usually right.
Yes, after 1000 articles telling us that there will be a blue wave, a blue wave will be completely unexpected.