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U.S. House Win in Arizona for the (R)
So Republican Debbie Lesko has won a special election for Arizona’s 8th congressional district over Dem. Hiral Tipirneni.
Lesko, a former state lawmaker, will head to Washington to replace Franks, who resigned his seat in December midway through his eighth term over sexual-misconduct allegations. She will complete his term, which expires in January, and run for a full two-year term of her own in the fall elections.
Meanwhile, Democrats will point to an unbroken string of nine special federal elections now in which they have improved over their 2016 showing. That performance has the party looking ahead to the November elections with an eye toward regaining control of one or both chambers of Congress.
To do that, they still need to win a net 23 seats in the House after falling short in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District.
Moments after winning, Lesko gave an emotional talk to supporters at the home of a neighbor who hosted her victory party.
“It’s very surreal,” she said. “Twenty-five years ago, I left an abusive husband. And I sure as heck, never would have dreamt in a million years that I would be running for Congress, be a congresswoman.”
I thought that the Elephants would never win again and we were facing a never-ending onslaught of Blue Wave. The Mainstream Media is talking about the narrow margin of victory for Lesko and why it portends disaster for the party of Donald Trump in the fall. But just maybe, maybe, that won’t be the case.
Published in General
It is most assuredly not yet. If McSally wins the primary, it would be, and I would vote for her (if an Arizonian).
If Ward wins the primary (she is leading after all), an “Arizona Republican” would vote for her.
I couldn’t read the Washington Post article as I’m not a paying member. Others have said it was written by Jennifer Rubin, a notorious never Trump columnist. Does she cite evidence in her column?
Who is no longer credited as a conservative anymore, by the way. So I’m not sure why her column is still called “Right Turn.”
Now you have added additional qualifiers to being in good hands. Before you gave only one.
What is good for America though and how will government accomplish those ends? Has he accomplished those ends yet? How long will it take?
I don’t agree that we don’t want to win. The big obstructionist in our party, IMHO, is Mitch McConnell. Maybe there are others that I’m not mentioning who are located in the hallowed halls of Congress, but the rank and file out here in the hinterlands wants to win and govern.
And forgive me for inserting words into the honorable Mitch McConnell’s mouth, but as I stated in a previous comment in this discussion…NO! I honestly do not believe he cares one way or the other, to be generous.
I know That’s why I elaborated. I could tell by your response I wasn’t clear
Easy. The Republican establishment no longer get to play that game without at least equal and opposite response. If this is the game, and these are the rules, than I will play along:
I won’t vote for McSally and I am an Arizona Republican. (I am [expletive] near “NeverMcSally.”)
If McSally wins, I will volunteer my services to “Republicans for Sinema.” (I’m already on her email list for some reason, so this will be very easy.)
A vote for McSally is a vote for Sinema. This is a binary choice. Do you prefer Sinema or Ward?
(Gee, sounds like a 5th grade playground! Let’s be adults and support our party nominee.)
Getting himself elected is not the same as getting a gaggle of Congress critters over the finish line. He has failed to move Kelly Conway into his reelection organization, where she can help him shape the primaries for the House and Senate in favor of the MAGA agenda. The window is rapidly closing and he is losing leverage against the current boat-anchor Congressional leadership. He was badly burned trying to play nice with McConnell in Alabama.
See my other comments to suggest that the available data from other elections over time in the OP district paints a better picture than the catastrophizing in the comments here.
Your math is faulty. The Rule since the adoption of the 22nd Amendment of alternating between the two parties every two terms has not been accurate only 6 times out of 8, it has been accurate 14 out of 16 times.
7 out of 8 times, a Party has been returned for a second four year term, with the only exception being in 1980, when the Democrats were not granted a second term. Jimmy Carter was that bad.
7 out of 8 times, a Party has not been given a third four year term, with the only exception being in 1988, when the Republicans won the third term of Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan was that good.
The odds were 7 out of 8 that the Democrats would not get a third term in 2016. Any Republican would have won. We just nominated the worst candidate, who is transforming the Republican Party from a conservative to a populist party. Trump is as bad as Jimmy Carter and will be defeated.
Ward is a Trump Clone. To rephrase Mike Pence, I am an American, a Conservative and a Republican in that order. Trump is Un-American, and he is a Populist, not a Conservative. As an act of political hygiene, I would vote for Sinema, one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, to help remove the Trump tattoo from my party.
It is essential to send the clear message to Republican Primary voters that a vote for a Trump clone is a vote for the Democrat.
I think you can read ten Wapo articles a month at no cost. Also, the cost of a WaPo subscription is only $99 a year, much less than other papers.
Hi Clifford,
I am an Arizona Registered Republican in Coconino County Precinct 24. Are you an Arizona Registered Republican?
Gary
No, your math is wrong. As I showed.
[…]
Thanks for asking. I just checked my voter registration status and it is:
Reason VALID REGISTRATION
Party REPUBLICAN
Permanent Early Voter? Y
Precinct Name PRECINCT UNKNOWN
Like to know my voting history?
Arpaio has no chance of winning the Republican primary. Ward’s chances aren’t much better, and not only that she would have no chance in the general election. She is a local politician, and does not have statewide appeal. Ward’s praise of Steve Bannon is problematic for her. Bannon carries no weight in Arizona. He’s seen as an outsider that can’t afford a haircut, or a razor. In other words acerbic loudmouths who look like a transient do not impress Arizonans, call it cowboy culture if you like. You are expected to be polite and soft spoken while trying to get your message out.
The difference between Flake and McCain is that McCain built a political machine that could crush his opponents, Flake spends most of his time outside of Arizona. He rarely is mentioned on the local news in Tucson. He’s like Ron Wyden from Oregon, who actually lives in New York.
McSally has the best chance of becoming the next Republican Senator from Arizona.
There were 16 elections between 1956 and 2016 inclusive. The rule of a second term but not a third term was followed 14 times, with exceptions only in 1980 and 1988. That’s 14 out of 16.
I last missed a primary or general election in the 1970’s.
Good for you. Haven’t been in the state that long and the data cut off where you see it.
OK, I see your mistake. The claim is “the American Party have alternated between the two parties every 8 years, with the sole exception of Reagan beating Carter and H.W. winning Reagan’s third term.” So the observation is every eight years, 8 cases. If we revise the formula to “if PARTY reelected, then PARTY loses subsequent election,” we still get 8 data points.
Underlying both the “every 8 years Presidency changes parties” and the “midterm correction” phenomena seems to be a voting public far less passionately partisan than the average Ricocheteer. But we have few cases and many possible variables. No Sabermetrics here!
The exact same words were said of Donald Trump in April, 2016.
Thank you! Finally an answer to my question of several pages back! You do want us voting for Democrats because of your hatred for Trump.
That’s not what he said…
If it’s not, it’s a distinction without a difference.
A tool that was correct 14 times out of 16 times is highly statistically significant. (Or if you go back to 1951, it was correct 15 out of 17 times.) The point is that the people who insist that only Trump could have won in 2016 have it all backward. 2016 was a Republican year, only Trump could come so close to blowing it.
Free for six months with Amazon prime, then $3.99 a month, in case you don’t want to toss $99 a year to encourage bias in journalism.
We seem to have different conceptions here of what it means to “win.”
Is it socially responsible to support the hate media by sending them money?
I think if you look at the actual 2016 results you could easily come to a different conclusion. I certainly thought at the time that Trump would be handily defeated. Yet to come to a different conclusion you would have to see if there are states that Trump did not carry that would have been carried by a Republican candidate. In addition, it is difficult to see how any other GOP candidate other than Trump would have carried Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where fewer than 80,000 voters made the difference and won the election for Trump.
I preferred many of the other GOP candidates, Cruz in particular, to Trump, but looking back on it, I have to acknowledge that Trump may have been the only one who could have won in the specific conditions of 2016.
Hillary Clinton was historically unpopular. The Democratic Party was in disarray and divided. And she not only had an ethical baggage train a mile long, but was a terrible candidate in terms of just basic skills.
No. The specific conditions favored a Republican. That’s why so many of them ran. That’s why even George Pataki ran. Because it should have been an easy win.
The only reason it was close is because the Republicans ran the only person whose unpopularity could rival Hillary Clinton.