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Polling Perplexity Disappears
Last week, I drew attention to what I called the poll perplex — the fact that some polls had Trump ever so slightly ahead while others had Hillary up by as much as 12 points. The poll that had Hillary with a commanding lead was done on behalf of ABC and Pravda-on-the-Potomac.
Today, that poll has Hillary ahead by a statistically insignificant one per cent — which suggests that there has in the interim been a dramatic change in the race. But Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge reports that the only thing that has changed is the weighting of the sample. Last week, they were over weighting Democrats by a ridiculous proportion. On Thursday, when the tracking poll showed Mrs. Clinton two points ahead, they were oversampling Democrats by only 8 percent.
What we may have had on Thursday and Friday — before the FBI announced that they had reopened the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails — was a dead heat. The three most recent polls — all taken before that news was released — show the race tied up or Hillary ahead by one or two points. The reopening of the investigation will surely do her some damage.
At this stage, we may have a wide-open race. This has been a year of incredible surprises. We may encounter another one on the 7th of November. You had better put on your seatbelts. We are in for a wild ride.
Update: As of noon on 10/31 EST, the latest LA Times tracking poll has Trump up by four points.
Published in General
There’s exit polling and they know which areas trend Democrat and which trend Republican.
There’s exit polling. Also, they know which precincts trend Democrat and which trend Republican.
The press has so poisoned the well this year that had I been approached by an exit pollster, I don’t know if I would have told them who I voted for, or verbally abused them. I was in a pretty mellow mood on Saturday, so I might just have asked them if they went into journalism because they weren’t morally qualified for actual prostitution.
http://axiomstrategies.com/abc/#polling
In Florida “Mrs. Clinton had a lead of 41 percent to 33 percent among Cuban voters, with a huge number undecided or supporting a minor-party candidate. Now Mr. Trump leads, 52 percent vs. 42 percent.” NY Times
In almost all polls Trump is getting between +10 to +20 % of Independents.
The winds of change..New Hampshire
“With just over a week to go until Election Day, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has a 1.7 point advantage over former U.S. Sec. of State Hillary Clinton, with 42.9 percent favoring her versus 44.6 percent for her Republican opponent in a five way race.
U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte leads in her race with Gov. Maggie Hassan for New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate seat. Hassan trails Ayotte 47 percent to 49.1 percent, with another 3.9 percent of the electorate undecided”
http://www.insidesources.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/InsideSources-NH-Journal-Poll-10.31.16.pdf
@trinitywaters I don’t agree, but I like the full throated support for Trump. It’s good to see that here on Ricochet. There has been a lot of “tut-tutting” about Trump around here and it’s good to see someone not towing that line. This is a center right site and LOTS of center right people support Trump.
Well, the best candidate since Reagan has managed to put Texas and Utah in play.
Clinton has never lead in any poll in Texas, not once. Trump leads in Texas +4.7
Clinton has not lead in any poll in Utah, not once. Trump lead in Utah +6.0
While Trump’s lead in Texas has grown recently, it’s still almost within the margin of error. It shouldn’t be that close. In 2012, Mitt Romney won Texas by a margin of nearly 16 percentage points.
It would indeed be surprising to find Election Day held on a Monday, but I suppose this year anything is possible.
Democrats voting day is Wednesday. Pass it on.
Well we don’t know what the final results will be in Texas since it hasn’t occurred yet. As of now Trump has lead in every poll ever taken in Texas.