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Can a Big Win for Trump Right the Ship?
As we head into the debate tonight, millions will have seen or heard of the 2005 video in which Trump was bantering crudely with an apparently approving Billy Bush, as well as the Trump mea culpa video on Facebook early Saturday in which a sober Trump admits his failings. Apologizes! (Whoa! Stop the presses! Weren’t we told Trump didn’t have the maturity to ever apologize?) And then pivots to the gloves-off contrast the leaked video now permits him: lewd words vs. actual assault, focus on issues facing the country vs. avoidance of track record.
For that is the entire zeitgeist of this election for many who are still undecided, and thus the target audience of this debate: Which candidate is least bad?
When you saw the video, did you wonder: Are we in Casablanca, that hypocritical world where the authorities are Shocked, Shocked, that Trump might talk this way? Trump’s supporters’ are thinking “Huh? What did you think he talked like when alone bragging with the guys?” But those who never wanted Trump as the candidate are in high dudgeon, and those in the media and on the Left are acting as though this is new news — which it is not.
(One wonders: Were they bothered by how the Kennedys talked about and treated women? Or how Bill Clinton did? Nah. Crocodile tears.)
Will this latest outré outrage make a difference? I think not.
First — Those who support Trump aren’t doing so because they thought he had high moral character, admirable business practices, or the disposition of a statesman. They don’t.
Many Trump supporters don’t care for Trump personally. But what they like is that he’s an outsider, and what they particularly like is that he’s not her. They already know he’s rough, crude, and lewd. Moreover, they think those characteristics may be necessary to clean out our modern Augean Stables: the institutionalized corruption that increasingly defines Washington. Rather than undermining that narrative, the video reinforces it.
Second — Expect Trump to survive this the same way he does everything else, by changing the subject, and attacking his opponents for using mud to obscure with old news their present failings. He will repeat that he has made mistakes, has never pretended to be perfect, and he is not running for saint. He just wants to make America great again.
Third — He will remind people that he recognized that he owed, and gave, the American people an apology — and unlike the video, Trump apologizing is contrary to type, which will help with those waiting for him to act presidential.
Fourth — Trump will turn this to his advantage, and take the counter-punch opening it provides, starting with reminding us that, unlike himself, Clinton feels she owes us nothing, and that no apology, for anything, will be forthcoming from her.
Even more, Trump should say “My words might have offended many of you but her corruption and failed policies have hurt you.” Even her husband, Bill, thinks the Affordable Care Act is horrific — and she will make it worse. (Indeed, Trump needs to talk about Obamacare in a more heartfelt way than he has to date, both because it is an issue that is particularly resonant with women, but also because Bill Clinton’s comments were no accident, but the first step in justifying single-payer, government-run health care.)
Expect Trump to repeat that she’s been at this 30 years with failure as the result, and if you want a true politician, vote for her.
Clinton will bait him with attacks on his character and certainly has plenty of new fodder this week (no taxes, sexist, misogynist).
After his experience last time, don’t expect him to squander time defending himself, but rather to be more like Pence in his demeanor — calm, unruffled, and on offense, hopefully leavened with humor and zingers. Expect him to use his time to attack her (the secret emails released this week, the lies and cover-ups, the immunity deals, etc.) and to sell his own policies.
Trump, if well-prepared, will paint a vivid picture of daily life under corrupt politicians, their cronies, and powerful special interests, versus an optimistic future where the American people get a government that puts them first.
His bar is low for Sunday. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t come to the debate better armed and more on offense.
I’ve got my popcorn. Round two, here we come!
Published in General
Depends on how well Trump manages to work it in to the Town Hall. He also needs to keep the focus on Hillary = BASI (see Comment #1). Your thesis is, as best I understand it, that we’re at “game over.”
I don’t think that’s true and Trump’s brief but impactful political career would suggest I’m right. He’s been counted out so many times and for so many reasons, it’s surprising you’d have such confidence that this is (finally!) the last straw. Might be . . . but I doubt it.
The other 16 who ran
This has been said on here many times before. I maintain there is no way we can say this for certainty as the Dem machine is fully capable of finding dirty information about everyone. No doubt any of the other candidates would have Trump’s particular problems, but few people in politics are squeaky clean. Anyway, what’s the use of discussing it? Trump is the candidate. End of story.
There is no way you can know that. Trump is the candidate, so there is no point in speculating.
It seems to me that the logic of your argument is to give up. All is lost in every election by this rendering. Is that your view? Why are you here if it is?
I’m crossing my fingers and toes in hopes that you are right.
I would hope that the RNC is going to Trump as we speak and asking him if it is possible that there is a recording of him using a racial epithet.
Unless Trump performs a miracle tonight and then stays the hell off his twitter account, it is game over. Truthfully, If one of these reprobates is going to end up in the Oval Office, I would prefer it be Trump rather than Hillary, but I think he stands the same odds as a snowball in hell.
If it turns out that he wins, that you are right and I am wrong, then I will gladly admit I was wrong. I don’t anticipate that happening however, despite all of the crossed fingers and toes. We have seen Trump over and over snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, put his ego ahead of the benefit of his campaign. A leopard is a leopard, and even black leopards have spots that never change.
None of the rest of them were jabbering nitwits.
Except for Kasich.
Is that an argument? What’s your evidence? Who actually qualifies as a “real” Republican, BTW? Paint the word picture that has Jeb! beating Hillary, if you would, since I’m pretty sure there’s no more “real” Republican than a Bushie. (Which sort of begs the question why he never polled above single digits, don’t you think?)
Thank you for acknowledging that I have logic to my argument. Let me assure you that I also feel there is a good deal of logic to yours, though I disagree with it.
Yes, it does, of course. But that’s neither here nor there when talking about Trump. Take responsibility for things you can actually do something about.
This line of thinking actually makes the crime of nominating Trump bigger. Hillary was vulnerable, and we castrated our ability to exploit that.
Really? Then how do we explain that he’s the GOP nominee and tied in the polls with Clinton? I wish I had “defeats” like that!
The voters just didn’t like him compared to Trump. Plain and simple. It was glaringly obvious that the strong alpha male standing on that stage was Trump. Women and men have been attracted to the alpha male since the days of the caveman. It’s just in our DNA. I watched the CBS focus group this morning and was fascinated when they were asked who they wanted to stop and help them if their car broke down on the side of the road, Clinton or Trump. A majority, even Clinton supporters, voted for Trump.
Low energy Jeb would have lost. Most others likely would have won but none of that matters. The jabbering man is headed to the stage soon. I want Hillary and the media humiliated.
I’m not wishing ill for Trump this evening, but I do think that his performance will tell us a lot. We’ve heard talk about the sound bites being a distraction for the debate, but, in a sense, he’s fortunate to have the opportunity to reverse his fortunes quickly. To answer the question in the O/P, it’s possible that a first rate performance could be a big help because it could be played against the pressure he’s been under–and the pressure he would face as President.
That’s a statement. What’s your argument? Rubio couldn’t even beat Cruz or Trump . . . why should I believe he’d do so smashing well against Clinton?
Call me crazy, but I think you’ve just explained why President Trump will be inaugurated in January. {:-))
Sorry — I have no idea what you mean here . . . help me out.
The thing is, people have been giving Trump this kind of advice since he announced his nomination in June 2015. He’s essentially never listened to this advice. Who has the better track record? The pundits or The Donald?
Not to speak for Eugene, but didn’t I at least make a pass at answering that in #30? In short, Trump’s weaknesses as a candidate appear to match up poorly with the manner in which the Democratic political apparatus conducts its campaigns.
Yes, yes, yes, yes!!!!
Not to mention all of the bad news and hard decisions that Obama put off until after the election.
Ask us that again in four weeks.
The hair stood up on the back of my neck when I saw the people who raised their hands for Trump. This accounts for those thousands and thousands of people who attend his rallies and voted for him in the primaries. Did you see the huge amount of people outside Trump Tower who were cheering and begging him to stay in the race?
The problem with Trump is that he fights in every direction – up, down, and sideways. Someone – anyone – takes a potshot at him and he goes off like a roman candle.
Here’s hoping he brings his A game tonight. Lord knows he’ll need it.
They are the “meat” when they don’t have any other. The question is will that meat be enough to get an unliked, uninspiring, corrupt Clinton across the goal line. If all it takes is an insensitivity meter, with the MSM a wholly owned subsidiary of the Democrat Party we might as well throw in the towel now. Insensitivity is about as subjective a measure as one can have.
The countervailing theory of this cycle is that a large block of previously unmotivated, sidelined voters have awoken to the idea that a non-PC guy named Trump can actually occupy the White House. That’s what Trump needs, it seems to me . . . literally millions of people turning out because they are sick of being told what’s an “acceptable” viewpoint, coupled with unmotivated Bernie supporters staying home.
See above at #59. This is the same playbook they use against every GOP candidate . . . what changes is merely the topic of the alleged insensitivity. For Walker, it would have been unionized workers. Cruz and Rubio, “women’s health.” And so on.