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Update on the Attack in Nice and the Failed Turkish Coup
Gokhan Tan/Getty Images. This photo is already justifiably famous.
Editors have been writing and calling me all weekend to ask if I can comment on events in France and Turkey. Of course, this would happen be one of the very few weeks in the past decade that I’ve neither been in France nor Turkey.
But I’ve been following the news closely in both places. I wrote this piece about the attack in Nice for City Journal. It was monstrous and terribly depressing, but not surprising. I’ll be back in France tomorrow afternoon, and I’ll then be able to tell you a bit more then about the investigation and how France is reacting.
As for Turkey, to tell you much beyond what’s in the news, I’d have to be there. It’s a catastrophe, and people there will suffer for a long time because of it.
Many aspects of the story so far make no sense to me — why did the putschists bomb the Turkish Parliament, of all insane things? Why was the coup attempt so incompetently executed? That doesn’t mean there’s no explanation, only that I don’t yet understand it.
Although Vox isn’t where I’d usually go for incisive commentary, they interviewed someone to whom I would turn for that. As Dani Rodrik points out, the whole coup attempt is very puzzling:
For one thing, it seems to have been very poorly planned. For example, most TV channels were left operating and there does not seem to have been an attempt to take Erdogan in. … Second, it is not clear who would benefit from a coup. The military is no longer the secularist stronghold with a strong esprit de corps and sense of mission it once was. (Hence the widespread theory in Turkey that this was a coup staged by Erdogan himself, designed to pave the way for an Erdogan dictatorship. But this doesn’t quite ring true either, in light of Erdogan’s recent attempts to mend fences with Russia and Israel to strengthen the economy. He must know that even a failed coup would wreak havoc with the economy.)
And it’s very unclear how anyone could have imagined that bombing parliament in Ankara and blocking bridges in Istanbul would overthrow Erdoğan, not least because he wasn’t in Istanbul or Ankara. He was in Marmaris.
The theory that Erdoğan staged this himself is insane, even if a number of my friends suspect so. Many real people have died. Were they all actors? How did he persuade so many people to sign up for a suicide mission in service of this theater? What’s pretty clear is that he’ll be the beneficiary, however; and this will give him cover to persecute any opposition remaining and pass a new constitution arrogating all power to himself. That’s an unqualified disaster.
It’s perhaps more plausible that he knew there was a faction planning a coup and chose not to disrupt their plans. But even that seems implausible — it’s a wild risk to take; how could he be so sure it would fail? But the lack of organization and inefficiency might be because they prepared for or at least entertained the idea of a coup, but somehow the preparations were discovered, forcing them to act prematurely. This is just wild speculation on my part, though.
It has already been followed by a massive purge of the judiciary and the army. The numbers change depending who’s reporting it, but they’re in the thousands and obviously go way beyond any evidence that could have been uncovered since Friday. Thousands of judges have been sacked and hundreds more arrested. Not only does this leave me wondering who will be left to judge the alleged coup-plotters, it makes me wonder whether everyday jurisprudence will now be in short supply. Who’s going to be left to adjudicate contract disputes and traffic tickets?
Erdoğan is unsurprisingly placing the blame on Fethullah Gülen; he and many in Turkey believe that we’ve been sheltering Gülen explicitly for such purposes. His demand that we extradite him has the potential to escalate quickly to a crisis. Last night a Turkish minister, Süleyman Soylu, explicitly blamed the US for the coup attempt: “The instigator of this coup is United States,” he said, and “Behind the terror in [Turkey’s] southeast, and troubles in Syria and Iraq, is the USA’s ambitions and plans.”
Last night Erdoğan announced that those who stand by Gülen would be “at war” with Turkey. As of last night, Incirlik was shut down, with much speculation that it would remain that way until Gülen was returned. I don’t know if this is true, but if it is, it will at least temporarily starve anti-ISIS forces in Syria of air support.
Over the years I lived in Turkey, I wrote a few pieces that might be useful as background to this. Here I ask, who is Fethullah Gülen? I wrote more about the relationship between Erdogan and Gülen in Turkey’s Two Thugs.
Murat Yetkin is probably the best journalist to follow for detailed timelines and accurate English-language reporting from Turkey. See, e.g., Anatomy of a Failed Coup.
I’ll be writing a bit about this over the week and I’ll post the links here.
Of course, I’m worried about my friends in Turkey.
Published in General
That is interesting. Here’s the link to the story, not just the jpg.
But how do we focus on it when we can’t use “Islam” or “Muslim” in the description of what we are looking at?
Claire & all,
My earlier comments about the likelihood of an Erdogan conspiracy and the coup being staged, appears to have some confirmation.
Turkey government seemed to have list of arrests prepared: EU’s Hahn
Regards,
Jim
Not so “insane,” eh? Whodathunk…
Do you mean “Because the Left will call us bigots/haters for doing so?”
If so, tell them to shove it.
Who says we can’t? I owe no obedience to the Left, or to the racists who show themselves by the racism they manufacture out of the nothingness.
Eric Hines
As we tend to disagree in so many other respects, not so much. Hardly worthless though, it does speak well of you to stick up for Meyer when he is attacked since you two are of similar mind.
I think he meant that the problems with Islam make Christianity and Judaism look good.
No, unfortunately he meant that Islam says nice things about Christianity and Judaism. For free! No, seriously, that’s what he meant.
Thanks. The word “democracy” seems to be missing from Erdogan’s speech following the failure of the coup, or whatever it actually was. He mentioned the support of the people, not democracy. Certainly the NYT’s story on Sunday noted that the crowds of Erdogan’s supporters who filled the streets hardly referred to democracy at all.
Erdogan’s Rabia gesture looks to be a signal that Turkey has reached its station and descended from the democracy train. That plus his rousing version of “I’ve Got a Little List.”
Since to join the EU and NATO a country must have a stable democratic government and the rule of law… But “Sharia” is a code of law, isn’t it? If the situation weren’t so dire, watching the EU ignore the little difficulties with Turkey might be amusing.
OLC,
More and more evidence that Turkey’s coup was Erdogan’s coup.
Turkey’s Failed Coup: Erdogan Purges Military, Police, Civil Service
He defeated a full Military coup and rounded all of these people up in just 48 hours. What a guy.
Regards,
Jim
It’s good that they expressed “alarm” rather than “concern.” But does “coup suspects” give the ministers an out if the suspects should be tried and convicted before execution?
And given the control Erdogan has over the European immigration spigot, will “would be dashed” stand, or will the ministers find other principles?
OLC,
Really good questions. I’m not the Turkey expert. Nor do I trust the EU. However, they must both be feeling the heat a little so there is hope.
Austrian Presidential Candidate Questions Loyalty Of Turks In Europe
Regards.
Jim
Hi all, I’m sorry. I’ve been so swamped with deadlines that I’ve had no time to answer your excellent questions. I’ll try to post an update by the end of the day.
Wait for the new movie: Return of the Qadi