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What Happens After June 23rd …
The day of decision on Brexit is fast approaching, and we’ll soon know whether the term will have a lengthy entry in the history books or be relegated to a mere footnote. Some of you may need a distraction from your troubles so — with the polls unbelievably close, not to mention just generally unbelievable — here is my hostage-to-fortune take on the future, either way.
Aside from the important economic, immigration and sovereignty issues, this is really an existential political battle, even if neither of the two main parties realise it. If the vote is to Remain, it will signal the death knell of small-c conservatism in Britain, leaving the technocratic big government center to dominate. If the vote is to Leave the left will be castrated.
Should We Stay …
A vote to Remain will not split in the Conservative Party. The high profile-figures in the Leave campaign will gravitate back to the government and the die-hard Eurosceptics will return to the long war on the backbenches. The result will, by-and-large, be accepted. The new political orthodoxy will lead to a further leftward lurch by the modernizers who lead the party. Big government imposed social justice will increasingly become a Tory totem, mixed (as it is) with the old paternalistic streak in the Etonian clique running the party. Thatcherism, meanwhile, will be pushed to the margins while the Wets will have won.
This “move to the center” will be made possible by the Old Labour leadership of Jeremy Corbyn, MP. While the center-left, europhilic, Blairite wing of the Labour Party will temporarily revel in their victory, they will soon see their base evaporate as the working class vote deserts them as the Scots did to the SNP after the 2014 referendum. Corbyn will continue with his unreformed socialist message — think of him as Senator Bernie Sanders’s humourless tutor — speaking to a core of hard leftists and unknowing young snowflakes. Unless there is an economic disaster clearly attributable to the government, or some other black swan event, they will be out of power for an election or two.
While Eurosceptism will not die out, it does not necessarily follow that the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) will be its only home. While much of the mud slung at UKIP is unjustified, there is an element that turns many away. The collapse of the thuggish British National Party (BNP) coincided with the rise of UKIP, leading many to suspect them of harboring the BNP’s xenophobia. Hence, we have two Leave campaigns: the official one, and the one run by UKIP. It is, therefore, possible that a Tea Party-style movement will be the child of this Brexit discombobulation. However they coalesce, eurosceptics will be dispirited but succoured in the knowledge that any further treaty changes will require a new referendum… and suckered if they believe the political class will actually allow another after this close run affair.
If Remain wins, the political landscape will shift as once Great Britain adapts to its new client status. A few of us will continue to fight a guerrilla war: pointing out that the new EU army is ineffective and undermines NATO; grumbling at the ever-higher budget costs and loss of autonomy despite being outside of the Euro; wailing as the EU takes our seat on the UN Security Council; howling at the loss of our beloved pints, miles and, the idiosyncratic British belief that the right way to drive is on the left …
The political center will continue its march off the Third Way cliff. They will follow the global governance gang’s edicts, simultaneously assuring their voters that they feel their pain while never actually being in a position to offer any solutions. The disconnect between the political class and the electorate will grow larger. The rise of the Untalented Aristocracy — those who are only famous for their telegenic features and vacuous opinions — will continue until a Trump-like figure emerges from their ranks (think “Simon Cowell”) who will take over the husk of one of the main parties in yet another new revolution against the elites.
… Or Should We Go
On the other hand, a vote to Leave is a Pandora’s box of possibilities. Irrespective of whether David Cameron resigns or stays on, the Conservatives will likely split. In what will amount to a monumental huff, Europhiles who have always put that ideology before party and country, will quit in protest at the voters’ decision. This should be limited to retired grandees rather than serving MPs, unless the former Mayor of London Boris Johnson stands for leader. If that happens, divisions among the Tories could well lead to a larger fracture, as Johnson will be seen to have used the referendum to unseat the first Conservative Prime Minister to win an election since 1992. Once naked ambition enters into it, many will throw their hats in the ring.
The intellectually bankrupt Left will be crippled without their big government allies on the Continent to prop them up. With only Corbyn’s failed socialist policies speaking to an electorate that no longer exists and the sneering metropolitan Blairites having discovered a vast disconnect between their globalism and the “bigots” (to borrow Gordon Brown’s description) who make up their voting core, Labour’s chances of getting elected will rest solely on how badly the governing party is perceived. With UKIP’s fox having been well and truly shot, a united Conservative party could get on with moving the British center of gravity rightward with a free-trade, low-tax, and pro-growth economic policy to capitalise on the opportunities Brexit provides.
This will require a statesman of some substance and, sadly, no one available seems to fit the description. That does not mean one will not emerge, as the times may make the man. If nothing else, this referendum has seen the rise of younger stars and one, very tragically, ending.
But putting my Yossarian cap back on, it is just as likely that Tory splits will lead to a Corbyn Government. This would almost be as bad a result as winning World War II and then electing the Labour Party of Clement Attlee in the middle of the Potsdam conference. However, as we could at least vote them out again, it would be a small price to pay for freedom from the EU, an organisation antithetical to not just conservatism but democracy as well.
Published in General
Fredö,
Check with Soros. He was betting against the EU long before anybody thought that Brexit had a chance and it wasn’t because of anti-EU movements. He was betting against the EU because he knew they couldn’t afford to pay for the mass migration that he’s been pushing.
Either they get the giant dead bureaucracy off their backs or it’s going to drag the whole EU monstrosity down with it. With no democratic control or check & balance possible on Brussels, the only way to put pressure on them is Brexit with all the countries that will follow. Dissolving isn’t really a good description more like implode if nothing changes.
Regards,
Jim
I get the same problems from reading American books. It must be this borderless world we keep hearing about.
Polls became unreliable, now betting markets are questionable. Some say look at Likes and Followers, as of yesterday:
Leave social media count: 521,676 likes, 64,715 followers.
Remain social media count: 514,910 likes, 44,499 followers.
From Guido Fawkes.
Interesting article, many thanks.
Nick,
What do you think of the “Shy Tory” theory? Many conservatives have been bullied by the media so they don’t answer polls but tomorrow they will vote Leave.
Regards,
Jim
Both the Dutch and French had referendums rejecting the EU constitution in 2005. The results of the 2014 European Parliamentary elections saw gains for anti-EU parties across the continent. So any such rise was around long before Brexit which is a symptom of the EU’s dysfunction, not the root.
Many have predicted this. Some have argued we should not leave and get the blame but how stupid will we Brits look if we vote to stay in and it collapses anyway?
I wouldn’t underestimate Brussels’ blinkers though, they even claim that the Euro is a “successful and stable currency”.
I would disagree yes this is BBC narrative but the polling says otherwise I what I have heard about. This is the narrative the London Media tries to tell but unless you have some goo opinion polling with correctly worded questions to prove me wrong, I don’t know if the narrative is sticking. Then again I just read a lot and watch a lot of youtube I don’t live in England so I don’t know what the every bloke on the street is thinking and saying. However no one really does unless they have some decent poll to back of their anecdotal evidence.
It has some truth to it. The broadcast media certainly don’t make voting conservative fashionable. It was a reluctant majority last year but the opposition were very weak.
Whether all Tories are Brexiteers is another question.
I remember that. I was in Italy at the time of the French referendum. (I was in Paris at the time of the London bombings, it delayed my trip, we took the first Chunnel train after it reopened) There was a Frenchman in Italy who described it as a left-wing repudiation, I think because the EU was a really good free trade agreement.
Thus the key thing for the Conservatives is to absorb as much of UKIP as possible. Some UKIP will go back to Labor. Hopefully, the pearl-clutching Conservatives will go LibDem but in smaller numbers than the Conservatives gain from UKIP.
What possible Cameron replacement is best suited to bringing UKIP on board?
My feeling is Gove for the Tea Party types but Johnson for the Trump types.
Not necessarily. UKIP started as a home for disaffected Tories but in the last few years it has been getting more traction in the Labour heartlands. It did not translate into seats for them but it hollowed out the Labour vote in the general last year.
Having UKIP around arguably hurts Labour more than the Conservatives.
“What possible Cameron replacement is best suited to bringing UKIP on board?”
Boris Johnson for sure but that would split the Conservatives ….
The French political elite are the court EUnuchs in Brussels. The people are not so enthusiastic.
The French have enjoyed the protectionism of the EU so have not been mugged by reality and are still rabidly left wing. Their recent ‘Up All Night Movement’ was like Occupy Wall St on a national level.
Apologies, I do love the French but it is probably best not to get an Englishmen started on their political views…