California Chaos?

 

ChaosWhile I haven’t listened to Rush in years (Limbaugh, not the holy triumvirate), I am wondering how many may participate in one of his political calls to arms: Operation Chaos.

California’s Republican Party doesn’t make it easy to vote Republican if you are “non-partisan” (CA’s version of “Independent”). The state GOP seems to be protecting themselves from lefties participating in disruptive voting as you cannot vote in the current Republican primary unless you are registered as a GOP voter, meaning you can only vote for the GOP slate. The California Democrats however welcome both Democrats and Independents which means Bernie has a stronger likelihood of winning as he has done in other “open-primary” states.

For those outside of Rio Linda, Hillary and Bernie are polling in a statistical dead heat before the CA primary on Tuesday. While Clinton’s nomination is a fait accompli, many would like to see her stumble across the convention finish line severely weakened after losing her most recent primaries accompanying her potential indictment.

This would undoubtedly be a moral blow to her campaign, which could strengthen Bernie’s hand in contesting Hillary’s superdelegates at the convention. Whether he stays in the race if he loses tomorrow is to be determined.

I don’t know if El Rushbo has been discussing this, but this may be the only time I can recently remember CA playing a role in a Presidential campaign. How many conservatives will participate in Operation Chaos 2016 before sitting back and passing the popcorn?

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  1. David Sussman Member
    David Sussman
    @DaveSussman

    Judge Mental:

    David Sussman:

    Lazy_Millennial:I’ve been listening to Rush daily since February. He’s not advocating another Operation Chaos this time around, though about once a month a caller will ask about it.

    On Bernie- be careful what you vote for. I don’t think Bernie’s going to run third-party, but if he does, he might win the whole thing. His favorable/unfavorable ratings are way better than either Clinton or Trump. Unlike any “white-knight” Republican who might enter should Sanders run, Sanders will have an easy time getting ballot access thanks to his rabid, unemployed/underemployed supporters.

    As far as state deadlines for 3rd party registration, that ship will have sailed long before any serious effort could be made.

    Did you see David French’s column today saying he will not run? He doesn’t think the ballot access is a big problem. I saw someone else say successful challenges could be done for $250M.

    Which strikes me as one more example of a different set of rules for the rich and connected.

    I don’t understand this thinking. There are several states where the deadline is coming up in a few weeks, which means tens of thousand of signatures are required to get on the ballot, and the largest Conservative state of Texas deadline already passed last month. Without every state, there is no formula whereby any candidate can secure enough votes to reduce the major party candidates electoral votes requiring a House vote. Perot couldn’t even do it with 20% of the popular vote.

    Just of a few of the upcoming or already missed states from BallotPedia:

    Petition signature requirements for independent presidential candidates, 2016

     State  Formula Signatures needed  Filing deadline
    Illinois 1% of the total number of voters in the most recent statewide general election, or 25,000, whichever is less 25,000 6/27/2016
    Indiana 2% of the total vote cast for secretary of state in the most recent election 26,700 6/30/2016
    New Mexico 3% of the total votes cast for governor in the last general election 15,388 6/30/2016
    North Carolina 2% of the total votes cast for governor in the previous general election 89,366 6/9/2016
    Texas 1% of the total votes cast for all candidates in the previous presidential election 79,939 5/9/2016
    • #31
  2. Joseph Stanko Coolidge
    Joseph Stanko
    @JosephStanko

    David Sussman: The polling showing Bernie beating Trump much higher than Hillary. I think you may have a point, but my gut tells me there are still more voters who understand what 95% tax rates will do and he loses.

    No no no, David, the 95% tax rate is only for the rich.  They’re rich, so by definition they can afford to pay it.  We’re middle class, so we’ll get a tax cut plus lots of expensive stuff will be free under Bernie: education, health care, even lunch!

    • #32
  3. Lazy_Millennial Inactive
    Lazy_Millennial
    @LazyMillennial

    David Sussman: There are several states where the deadline is coming up in a few weeks, which means tens of thousand of signatures are required to get on the ballot, and the largest Conservative state of Texas deadline already passed last month.

    In discussions of a possible 3rd-party run, the number “10,000 signatures per state” was tossed around as enough to get on the ballot in ~37 states. Presumably some (but not all) of the other 13 allow write-in candidates. Check more reliable sources for better info.

    David Sussman: Without every states, there is no formula whereby any candidate can secure enough votes to reduce the major party candidates electoral votes requiring a House vote.

    If even a single state votes for a third-party candidate, there’s a chance that no candidate gets a majority. This chance increases if the state is a swing state (like NM) that usually determines the winner. Candidates with strong support in one state (Sanders in Vermont, Romney in Utah) are thus more likely to throw the election to the House than factional candidates with wider but shallower bases of support.

    • #33
  4. David Sussman Member
    David Sussman
    @DaveSussman

    Lazy_Millennial:

    David Sussman: There are several states where the deadline is coming up in a few weeks, which means tens of thousand of signatures are required to get on the ballot, and the largest Conservative state of Texas deadline already passed last month.

    In discussions of a possible 3rd-party run, the number “10,000 signatures per state” was tossed around as enough to get on the ballot in ~37 states. Presumably some (but not all) of the other 13 allow write-in candidates. Check more reliable sources for better info.

    David Sussman: Without every states, there is no formula whereby any candidate can secure enough votes to reduce the major party candidates electoral votes requiring a House vote.

    If even a single state votes for a third-party candidate, there’s a chance that no candidate gets a majority. This chance increases if the state is a swing state (like NM) that usually determines the winner. Candidates with strong support in one state (Sanders in Vermont, Romney in Utah) are thus more likely to throw the election to the House than factional candidates with wider but shallower bases of support.

    Respectfully, we’ll disagree. Im not happy about the current situation, but a write-in campaign will lose SCOTUS until long after we are all food for worms.

    • #34
  5. Teresa Mendoza Inactive
    Teresa Mendoza
    @TeresaMendoza

    Doctor Robert:Mr Sussman misses the undelicious irony that the Republicans have already been victimized by an operation chaos. Physician, heal thyself.

    This is another thing that I wondered about all primary season – is Trump really the choice of Republicans, or did some Democrats launch a super-secret — and super-successful — Operation Chaos? I think we would have heard about it. Plus, Trump’s popularity seems to spring from some deep but largely overlooked and misunderstood animus among the hoi polloi toward the status quo.

    • #35
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