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A Reply to Paul Rahe
Paul Rahe makes many good points and I agree with him that Republican politicians over-promised in 2010 and 2014. This does not strike me as particularly new. Further, I don’t agree that over-promising is a capital offense that merits the total dissolution of the party — and that’s what has been achieved.
The betrayal narrative overlooks the fact that most of the country is not solid red. The Republican Party also has to win votes from less ideologically pure parts of the country — places like Loudoun County, VA, and Montgomery County, PA. Most Americans, and yes, even many who vote Republican, hate government shutdowns and let their feelings be known. As the anti-government party, Republicans always get the blame for government shutdowns and always will. (Though at this point, this seems a moot point, since the Republican Party is about to be destroyed.) Republican leaders have to take account of their members who come from blue states too. Jim DeMint famously said he’d rather have 30 true conservatives in the Senate than a majority. He may get his wish very soon.
Prof. Rahe argues that “it is the president who shuts down the government” and dismisses the sorry history of Republicans always getting the blame by asserting that
Every time they tried they lost their nerve and backed down. Cowards who back down always get the blame. Think about it. Can you think of a single instance in which a man has taken a bold, brave stance and then later backed down in which he did not become an object of contempt?
Well, speaking of over-promising, Sen. Ted Cruz, a key leader of the shutdown effort, did a bit of over-promising himself. During his prolonged effort to keep the government closed until Democrats in the Senate and White House relented, he was asked, by Sen. Rand Paul, if he would ever agree to a compromise:
“My question to the Senator is, If he can’t get everything he wants, if he can’t defund ObamaCare, which is exactly what he and I both agree on, and millions of people across America want us to get rid of ObamaCare, if the Senator can’t, if he stands today and argues and cannot get rid of it, will he accept a compromise?”
Sen. Cruz replied:
The Senator’s question was would I vote for something less than defunding ObamaCare. Personally, no. Why? Because I have committed publicly over and over to the American people that I will not vote for a continuing resolution that funds one penny of Obamacare.
Yet, a week later, when the Republican Party’s approval rating had dropped to its lowest level since Gallup began asking the question (plunging 10 points in two weeks), Sen. Cruz voted to reopen the government without the repeal of Obamacare.
Arguably, shutdown theater cost Republicans the governorship in Virginia and distracted from the very instructive and shambolic roll-out of Healthcare.gov.
Despite their posturing, the shutdown crew never had a game plan. They could not hope to override a presidential veto. It wasn’t a matter of lack of courage, but lack of votes. They were playing to the conservative gallery (amplified a thousand-fold by talk radio hosts who have grown very rich by attacking fellow Republicans) and others who used this futile gesture to raise money.
Was that a “betrayal?” Maybe. But I’m supporting Ted Cruz for president now because there are larger issues at stake — namely, the survival of the conservative movement and the dire necessity of preventing Donald Trump from getting anywhere near the nuclear codes.
That dead elephant in your post, Prof Rahe, makes me weep.
Published in General
Why in the world do you think I’m celebrating? Do you think I’m a Trump supporter? I’m not. I think he’s a disaster.
I’m just hoping Mona Charen, and those that agree with her, will recognize that the way the party acts (and treats its voters) has consequences. In this case, the consequences are pretty clear, and pretty bad.
I also always think it’s always a very, very bad idea to blame one’s problems on other people’s stupidity. It only leads to more of the same behavior.
Hmm, yes, what are the possibilities here? Give it a little thought…
And the name…
You have no idea how the party works or what is happening in the party or the conservative movement. You’ve demonstrated that repeatedly. You have a simplistic narrative in your head about where things are now and what caused that, backed up by nothing and which is consistently debunked upon deeper inspection of the available data. You’re a walking case of confirmation bias.
(deleted: nuff said)
So, explain why 25-35% of the people who feel “betrayed” by the party consistently have voted for either Rubio/Bush/Kasich, the so called “establishment” candidates? Also, why does Trump consistently win a third or more of the vote from the people who say they don’t feel betrayed by the party? Why does 55% of the party support “amnesty” if it’s supposedly political suicide for a GOP candidate to support that?
If you can offer coherent answers to any of those questions that completely defy your reductionist narrative, I’ll concede that you have some clue as to what you’re talking about. Otherwise, you’re simply trolling with bogus “facts” and facile reasoning.
Such as? I don’t recall that, and even if they did, that would be legislation that hadn’t passed yet.
That’s completely different that not funding a passed legislation. You’re confusing the issue.
I tend to agree with that. But that doesn’t give us the leeway to do it also.
The main spending Reagan wanted but the Dems didn’t was military. The Dems routinely refused to fund existing programs to get Reagan to cave to their demands on other things. I have no idea what you could possibly mean by not funding passed legislation. No Congress is required to fund programs established by a previous Congress, or even themselves, if previous appropriations are exhausted and require an appropriation. If they are in a position to refuse to fund it, then they are entitled to refuse. If the money has been appropriated already, they would need new legislation to defund, which is not what we’re talking about here.
Can you please clear up what you are arguing here?
“So…25-35% of the people who feel ‘betrayed’ by the party consistently have voted for either Rubio/Bush/Kasich…”
Well, if this is true (if, as they say in Sparta) , you’ve got a lot of work to do to figure it out. Reject my explanation if you so judge.
By the way, hurling insults is not wise. If you think I’m that stupid or unreasonable, the proper response is to desist. Calling me names and berating me is a bad idea because if I am a fool, then so are you for engaging with one (tip of the day.)
I personally loved the government shutdown. It was inspiring and instructive to learn that most of us are fully capable of getting on with our lives without Leviathan. A lot of people in Virginia depend on Leviathan, however, resent having their jobs disrupted, and won’t vote for the party that’s responsible.
If I were speaking to you in a private situation I wouldn’t be engaging you at all. But since this is a public forum and I suspect that much of the nonsense you’re spouting counts as conventional wisdom among a significant portion of the GOP electorate, I think it’s important to debunk that conventional wisdom and set people who hold it straight.
As far as me having to figure things out, I don’t think so. The fact is that Mona has diagnosed this problem correctly. A large chunk of voters has been persuaded that insufficient commitment to suicidal political tactics is what ails the GOP and have bought into the demonization of large parts of the party. This has been done by cynical people exploiting the frustrations of about a third of the conservative movement for personal gain.
This third of the movement believe they are the true believers and keepers of the flame and refuse to accept that they don’t make up a majority of the conservative movement, let alone the majority of the country that is needed to hold power in this country. So they undermined party unity and scapegoated other conservatives, meanwhile Donald Trump saw an opportunity to exploit the division and used his celebrity and shameless demagoguery to hijack the party.
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We had half a dozen very good candidates who could have unified the party and accomplished a lot of good for conservatives and the country. Now, though, we will learn what political exile really looks like until conservatives decide to hang together and focus on the true sources of rot in our culture and system of government, and stop demonizing each other.
I believe that we as conservatives need to make it clear that Congress’s overspending is a threat to the future of the country and that Democrats (as the party of government) have zero interest in getting the spending under control. They want precisely the opposite: a massive expansion of spending (4 trillion annual Federal spending) and higher taxes for decades to come. And if there’s a debt crisis well just more regulation outright nationalization of private businesses.
Hey Justin, Welcome to Ricochet! Unusually contentious thread for it.
I think you’re right that we ought to have a party that’s dedicated to cutting the size of government. Unfortunately I think many of us have lost faith that the Republican Party is such a party. We all saw the shutdown over Obamacare, but we also saw Ted Cruz drag the party kicking and screaming to it.
It seems ironic to me that the shutdown was supposed to destroy our chances in the next election didn’t, but the lack of shutdowns after 2014 did.
Everyone, it seems, has betrayed the Trump voters. Elites, establishments, the GOP, Mexico, China, exporters, Congress. So sure why not support a conspiracy theorist? It is somehow fitting. Conspiracy is the ultimate betrayal. Everything is rigged; the little guy is done in by the lobbyists, consultants, party bosses. But all is ok for there is a table-thumping wind bag whose opinions are completely uncertain yet who will restore faith and trust and end the great betrayal. And pigs will fly. The mood of betrayal has much to do with the panic felt by Americans who are falling behind and are grasping at straws that someone, even a fake Mussolini, will fix their plight. The most tragic thing of all is that there may be no fix. You can’t pass a law or shutdown government to revive dead industries or lost jobs or vacant cities. And “terrific deals” won’t change these fundamentals either.
If everyone is Judas, then no one is.