The Trump Prisoner’s Dilemma

 

Alexandra Petri at the Washington Post sums it up. “If Candidate A and Candidate B are really in it to win it,” she writes, “Congratulations, Nominee Donald!”

Screen Shot 2016-03-02 at 06.24.51

After Marco’s comparatively poor showing, it seems to me he’s the one who should drop out. This pains me, because I like him more than Cruz. Heavy stress on “like,” I don’t necessarily have exceedingly good arguments for preferring him. I just find his a much more appealing personality. But I thought he’d do better in the general, and after today, it looks as if I may have been, again, wrong. Numbers are numbers. Cruz has excelled him in delivering the delegates.

That said, Texas is his home state, leaving just enough uncertainty that Marco may be able to convince himself not to believe the numbers yet.

I reckon one of these men must drop out now, because if they wait until more data comes in, they’ll be waiting too long. I hate to say it, but looks like it should be Marco.

Anyone disagree?

 

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  1. Mike LaRoche Inactive
    Mike LaRoche
    @MikeLaRoche

    Hillary Clinton will never be the President of the United States.

    • #31
  2. tigerlily Member
    tigerlily
    @tigerlily

    T-Fiks:Regarding Kasich and Carson, their respective choices to continue really confirm what I’ve suspected about politicians for a long time: Once they get into competition, personal affirmation means much, much more to them than advancing a particular set of ideas.

    Yeah, and BTW, can anybody tell me what Kasich’s set of ideas are?

    • #32
  3. Sash Member
    Sash
    @Sash

    Mike LaRoche:Tonight, John Kasich had this to say about Marco Rubio:

    “Senator Rubio has been more hyped than Crystal Pepsi, but he has flopped even worse. Even a well-conceived, high-financed marketing campaign won’t work if people don’t want to buy the product.”

    Says the man at 4% in polling.

    Rubio out performed his polling in every state, and after just 5 days of telling people who Trump really is…..

    We need Kasich and Rubio to stay in long enough to educate the voters.

    Then they will be begging to replace Trump at the convention.

    • #33
  4. Mike LaRoche Inactive
    Mike LaRoche
    @MikeLaRoche

    As I write this, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are in a neck-and-neck race for the Alaska caucus.

    • #34
  5. Leigh Inactive
    Leigh
    @Leigh

    J. D. Fitzpatrick: FWIW, compared to the last poll, Trump lost 5, Rubio gained 5, Cruz lost 5, Kasich gained 3, Carson gained 2. (I realize polling is inexact, but I suspect that some Trump voters went for Kasich.) It still wasn’t enough for Rubio to win, which is all that matters in FL. And again, this is his home state.

    Right. But the other point is that the anti-Trump offensive barely had time to sink in. Rubio did this in four days, and he was barely even in the state. I don’t know how much ad spending they put in here, but I’m guessing it’s a fraction of what is about to happen in Florida.

    Besides Rubio is doing something to Trump right now that I don’t think Cruz can do. So long as they don’t get tangled up against each other, having them both in has its effect for the moment. Suppose Rubio can’t win Florida he should get out first — but not now.

    T-Fiks: If Cruz dropped out, his voters would probably prefer Trump to Rubio. If Rubio dropped out, his voters would eventually migrate over to Cruz.

    I don’t know who you support — but I keep hearing this from Cruz fans, and they perhaps need to realize it’s a double-edged argument that confirms the reasons we’re with Rubio in the first place.

    • #35
  6. Joseph Stanko Coolidge
    Joseph Stanko
    @JosephStanko

    Mike LaRoche:Tonight, John Kasich had this to say about Marco Rubio:

    “Senator Rubio has been more hyped than Crystal Pepsi, but he has flopped even worse. Even a well-conceived, high-financed marketing campaign won’t work if people don’t want to buy the product.”

    Well since John Kasich said it, it must be true!

    • #36
  7. Sash Member
    Sash
    @Sash

    Knotwise the Poet:

    Joseph Stanko:I question the premise. So far Trump hasn’t cracked the 50% threshold anywhere. Has anyone run the numbers on this thing? Suppose for the sake of argument all 5 candidates stay in until the end, does Trump win a majority of the delegates, or do we end up with a brokered convention?

    Maybe a brokered convention is our only hope to stop him. And in any case it would be fun.

    There’s part of me that wonders if a brokered convention would feed into the “GOP Establishment conspiracy screws over the base” narrative that is driving much of Trump’s support and might lead them to sit on their hands come election day. I feel one candidate beating him mano-a-mano might bring better results in the long run.

    I am fine if the racists stay home.  I’d rather lose than have their support.

    [Editors’ Note: Please see our comment here.]

    • #37
  8. Leigh Inactive
    Leigh
    @Leigh

    Joseph Stanko:

    Mike LaRoche:Tonight, John Kasich had this to say about Marco Rubio:

    “Senator Rubio has been more hyped than Crystal Pepsi, but he has flopped even worse. Even a well-conceived, high-financed marketing campaign won’t work if people don’t want to buy the product.”

    Well since John Kasich said it, it must be true!

    What did Kasich say about Trump?

    • #38
  9. J. D. Fitzpatrick Member
    J. D. Fitzpatrick
    @JDFitzpatrick

    Joseph Stanko:

    Mike LaRoche:Tonight, John Kasich had this to say about Marco Rubio:

    “Senator Rubio has been more hyped than Crystal Pepsi, but he has flopped even worse. Even a well-conceived, high-financed marketing campaign won’t work if people don’t want to buy the product.”

    Well since John Kasich said it, it must be true!

    A postman shall lead them.

    • #39
  10. Hoyacon Member
    Hoyacon
    @Hoyacon

    J. D. Fitzpatrick:.

    Anyway, people upset about immigration are voting either Trump or Cruz. That’s what I take away from reading threads on Ricochet. If Cruz drops, those people go to Trump, not Rubio.

    Look, it’s too bad that the guy who looks better in the general election can’t get the support of his own party. Maybe he just needs to try again when he’s older.

    OK.  I say a candidate with a functioning Republican party apparatus in Florida who is already running well ahead of candidate #3 in the state shouldn’t drop out to benefit candidate #3.  We’ll agree to disagree.

    • #40
  11. Mike LaRoche Inactive
    Mike LaRoche
    @MikeLaRoche

    J. D. Fitzpatrick:

    Joseph Stanko:

    Mike LaRoche:Tonight, John Kasich had this to say about Marco Rubio:

    “Senator Rubio has been more hyped than Crystal Pepsi, but he has flopped even worse. Even a well-conceived, high-financed marketing campaign won’t work if people don’t want to buy the product.”

    Well since John Kasich said it, it must be true!

    A postman shall lead them.

    Kevin Costner for president!

    • #41
  12. Sash Member
    Sash
    @Sash

    T-Fiks:Claire, yours is the same argument Ace of Spades made yesterday on his blog. If Cruz dropped out, his voters would probably prefer Trump to Rubio. If Rubio dropped out, his voters would eventually migrate over to Cruz.

    It seems awfully strange to say this, but the bristly Cruz has now become the compromise candidate.

    Regarding Kasich and Carson, their respective choices to continue really confirm what I’ve suspected about politicians for a long time: Once they get into competition, personal affirmation means much, much more to them than advancing a particular set of ideas.

    Cruz can’t win.  Rubio voters will split.  I am finally okay with Cruz, but not happy about it, many would rather slit their wrists.

    And then Cruz isn’t going to win in the fall, many Rubio voters are voting for who can win.  That will split for sure.  Because if they liked Cruz they’d already be there.

    • #42
  13. J. D. Fitzpatrick Member
    J. D. Fitzpatrick
    @JDFitzpatrick

    Leigh:

    T-Fiks: If Cruz dropped out, his voters would probably prefer Trump to Rubio. If Rubio dropped out, his voters would eventually migrate over to Cruz.

    I don’t know who you support — but I keep hearing this from Cruz fans, and they perhaps need to realize it’s a double-edged argument that confirms the reasons we’re with Rubio in the first place.

    I’m afraid I’ll need to have this explained to me.

    • #43
  14. Whiskey Sam Inactive
    Whiskey Sam
    @WhiskeySam

    Time for them to cut some deals and solidify behind one candidate.

    • #44
  15. Joseph Stanko Coolidge
    Joseph Stanko
    @JosephStanko

    Mike LaRoche:Hillary Clinton will never be the President of the United States.

    Clinton will wipe the floor with Trump.  Biggest landslide since ’84.  Her margin of victory will be huuuge.

    • #45
  16. Sash Member
    Sash
    @Sash

    Gabriel Sullice:Can we afford to wait for Florida? If yes, I disagree. If no, I agree.

    Anyone know the hard numbers on this? Can we wait? If we wait, do we risk allowing both Rubio and Cruz to stay in too long because they’ll be too close to one another?

    Anyone dropping out is a gamble… no one knows where his support goes, and Trump gets a boost of at least some.

    It’s safer to try for the convention, and keep trying to drive Trump’s numbers into the dirt.

    • #46
  17. Mike LaRoche Inactive
    Mike LaRoche
    @MikeLaRoche

    Joseph Stanko:

    Mike LaRoche:Hillary Clinton will never be the President of the United States.

    Clinton will wipe the floor with Trump. Biggest landslide since ’84. Her margin of victory will be huuuge.

    The opposite will happen.

    • #47
  18. Sash Member
    Sash
    @Sash

    J. D. Fitzpatrick:

    Leigh:

    T-Fiks: If Cruz dropped out, his voters would probably prefer Trump to Rubio. If Rubio dropped out, his voters would eventually migrate over to Cruz.

    I don’t know who you support — but I keep hearing this from Cruz fans, and they perhaps need to realize it’s a double-edged argument that confirms the reasons we’re with Rubio in the first place.

    I’m afraid I’ll need to have this explained to me.

    Which is why you can’t see how bad Cruz really is.

    • #48
  19. Sash Member
    Sash
    @Sash

    Mike LaRoche:

    Joseph Stanko:

    Mike LaRoche:Hillary Clinton will never be the President of the United States.

    Clinton will wipe the floor with Trump. Biggest landslide since ’84. Her margin of victory will be huuuge.

    The opposite will happen.

    Nope, because much of the Republican party will help her.

    • #49
  20. Sash Member
    Sash
    @Sash

    J. D. Fitzpatrick:

    Leigh:

    J. D. Fitzpatrick:It’s better for the GOP if Rubio drops now.

    Cruz would have a chance to win FL (99 delegates), and Kasich would have a chance to win Ohio (66 delegates). Trump’s path to the nomination gets harder.

    Rubio stays in, Trump still has a strong chance of winning FL and a strong chance of winning OH.

    FL folk know Rubio; what can they learn about him in the next few weeks that would improve their opinion of him?

    I don’t believe those polls — all pre-debate, all before the anti-Trump offensive that barely even had time to register. The polls showed Rubio down double digits here in Virginia too.

    FWIW, compared to the last poll, Trump lost 5, Rubio gained 5, Cruz lost 5, Kasich gained 3, Carson gained 2. (I realize polling is inexact, but I suspect that some Trump voters went for Kasich.) It still wasn’t enough for Rubio to win, which is all that matters in FL. And again, this is his home state.

    Of course, I’m willing to wait and see what FL polls say this week.

    Also, if Carson drops out, there’s an argument for Rubio staying.

    The Florida establishment is still waiting for Bush… it all depends on what Bush does.  Will he let bygones be bygones or does he do a Christie?

    • #50
  21. Mike LaRoche Inactive
    Mike LaRoche
    @MikeLaRoche

    Sash:

    Mike LaRoche:

    Joseph Stanko:

    Mike LaRoche:Hillary Clinton will never be the President of the United States.

    Clinton will wipe the floor with Trump. Biggest landslide since ’84. Her margin of victory will be huuuge.

    The opposite will happen.

    Nope, because much of the Republican party will help her.

    Only a handful of pundits, donors, and remaining Rockefeller Republicans, all of whose influence is waning by the day.

    • #51
  22. Could Be Anyone Inactive
    Could Be Anyone
    @CouldBeAnyone

    MarciN:It looks like Rubio is polling way behind Trump in Florida. That’s not good.

    If we were to assume Rubio dropping out and all his votes going to Cruz, Cruz would still lose in Florida according to this same data.

    Hoyacon:

    Leigh:

    Literally, this is a fluid race. Those polls mean nothing.

    The last Real Clear Politics composite had Trump +14.5 in Virginia. He won by less than +3.

    This is a point people seem to be forgetting here and methinks its because some have an ulterior reason to support such a thesis of coalescing and they want their candidate to be the one benefiting.

    The polls had also indicated trump would win in Iowa and even Oklahoma. In other cases the polls were above or below their predictions. Long story short there is much fluidity in the race still.

    Not even a fifth of all states have seen votes cast and that is an important consideration as well. Now comes the real test of the importance in good debate performances and ad campaigns (due to the time constraints of so many primaries occurring in so little time) where voters across dozens of states will get their only taste of candidates in most cases.

    That and tonight was supposed to be Cruz’s victory night with his Southern Strategy. He needed to do better (not discounting his win in Texas or Oklahoma) and trump again stole the bulk of his steam.

    • #52
  23. Mike LaRoche Inactive
    Mike LaRoche
    @MikeLaRoche

    Trump has crushed his enemies, seen them driven before him, and is hearing the lamentations of the RINOs.

    Just as predicted.

    • #53
  24. Sash Member
    Sash
    @Sash

    No body is dropping out.  I think there is a plan in place to make sure Trump does win unless they get concessions out of him.

    Trump cannot get a majority unless he gains significantly and he is falling after people started learning who he is.

    Give it some time.  The GOP was really late in the oppo research, so all these staying in is buying the time they need.

    Rubio’s attacks worked.  It’s only been a few days, and the polling changed significantly.

    Since Trump didn’t win as much as he promised will he do another debate?  He’s terrified of the Cuban Sandwich.  He tried to chicken out.

    • #54
  25. Hoyacon Member
    Hoyacon
    @Hoyacon

    Does Kasich know that there are strong rumors that Chrystal Pepsi is coming back?  Can we really afford to have someone with the nuclear football who doesn’t know that New Coke is the standard for soft-drink flops?

    • #55
  26. Could Be Anyone Inactive
    Could Be Anyone
    @CouldBeAnyone

    Mike LaRoche:Trump has crushed his enemies, seen them driven before him, and is hearing the lamentations of the RINOs.

    Just as predicted.

    You think Cruz supporters are RINOs? That isn’t a very nice thing to say about his supporters.

    • #56
  27. Sash Member
    Sash
    @Sash

    Mike LaRoche:Trump has crushed his enemies, seen them driven before him, and is hearing the lamentations of the RINOs.

    Just as predicted.

    He didn’t win nearly what he predicted!  He lost at least three… going in, he was maybe going to lose one, but that was doubtful.

    Trump showed he is vulnerable.

    And his trying to chicken out of the debate… that shows he is scared of the Cuban Sandwich.

    And he should be…. the education has only begun.

    • #57
  28. Hoyacon Member
    Hoyacon
    @Hoyacon

    Joseph Stanko:

    Mike LaRoche:Hillary Clinton will never be the President of the United States.

    Clinton will wipe the floor with Trump. Biggest landslide since ’84. Her margin of victory will be huuuge.

    I have the over-under on Trump electoral votes at 80 .  If he gets the nomination, I’m open for business.

    • #58
  29. Sash Member
    Sash
    @Sash

    Rubio gained 15 points in VA since the debate, that is huge!

    Life is looking up.

    • #59
  30. Mike LaRoche Inactive
    Mike LaRoche
    @MikeLaRoche

    Rubio went 1 for 11 on Super Tuesday.  He’s got Trump right where he wants him!

    • #60
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