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Actual Analysis Indicates We Aren’t Doomed
Donald Trump scored a third straight victory on Tuesday night in the Nevada Caucuses.
Sick of hearing about The Donald’s string of allegedly crushing victories (and being numerate, unlike the saps who follow Bernie Sanders), I decided to check out what was going on under the hood.
So, just as any decent engineer should, I opened up Excel and plunked in information such as we have it. Here’s the picture that emerged:
It seems that despite Trump’s supposed strength, the reality is that two thirds of the Republican electorate is actually arrayed against Trump. The delegate count favors him wildly and doesn’t reflect the weakness of his frontrunner status.
Trump tends to perform less well as the size of the sample increases; For instance, Nevada represented just 10 percent of the total votes cast in South Carolina, with lowly Ben Carson dwarfing Trump’s Nevada total. In short, Trump is once again, the tallest midget — not a colossus bestriding the horizon.
Having examined the numbers in detail at this point, my advice to conservatives is: Don’t panic. Yet. There’s still time to derail Trump given a couple of conditions:
- Ben Carson and John Kasich leave the race and endorse not-Trump;
- Rubio and Cruz reach détente for the good of the Party and the nation.
Offer Kasich the position of Postmaster General. Tell Ben he can host the National Prayer Breakfast live from the Great Pyramid. Do whatever you have to do — but get them out of the race.
The bottom line is this: There aren’t enough Trump supporters in larger primaries to beat the remainder of the party if it’s united against him. The numbers don’t lie. The only thing standing between us and defeating him is the ego of the assorted participants.
Published in General
Speaking of Raiders, I’m starting to feel like people’s heads are going to start melting soon if this continues. Not without good cause, mind you.
Not exactly. The Democrats had the “fortune” of creating a coalition of the south and north with FDR. The Democrat Party’s coalition and or strategy of winning since Woodrow Wilson or maybe Williams Bryan has been to more or less bring countless interest groups together (or at least as they view them) and to promise certain political advantages to the groups that supported them.
For decades the Democrats held the union’s support by maintaining the tariffs on many imported goods. They won over many blacks with affirmative action and other federal programs. They got the support of the south by getting Wilson elected in and by usually placing southern democrats in leadership roles like Bill Clinton, John Garner, Lyndon Baines Johnson, or Harry Truman.
They won over feminists by showing support for pro-abortion institutions like Planned Parenthood. They won over a number of leftists christians with their support for increased welfare which the Democrats spun as being true charity and christian in character. They have won over many wealthy business entrepreneurs with regulatory state which serves to preserve their businesses by creating massive barriers to foreign and new domestic competition as well as funding new useless research (example Solyndra).
Obviously many of these groups are thrown against another by these policies. But the Republicans are not promising such really so they must be worse…. right?
In the late 1970’s that Nielsen sample represented 70 million homes, but it was accurate and consistent for programs which had low ratings, such as minor golf tournaments on weekend afternoons.
Only 8% of the Nevada caucus goers were Hispanic, so the overall sample size was ~1080, not too shabby. The Hispanic vote roughly paralleled the overall. Nothing surprising.
We are completely doomed. I thought you were trying to cheer us up. Cruz’ ego is visible to the naked eye from space and I’m supposed to be happy that’s the only thing stopping us from defeating Trump? Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
Yes! Cruz as SC Justice would be pretty awesome!
But, he’d need to be confirmed by the Senate… which despises him. Rubio needs to sit down with the Senate GOP and work a deal. Guarantee a Cruz nomination by President Rubio in return for Cruz bowing out and supporting Rubio. And I think the Senate would take that deal, if they want any coattails… and I think Cruz might take it, too.
Rubio could then announce Fiorina as running mate and unleash her like the Kracken… first against Trump, then against Hillary.
I know this is pie-in-the-sky thinking… but I’d love to see the author of “The Art of the Deal” get sunk by a good deal.
I think this needs to happen BEFORE Super Tuesday.
And it’d be REAL NICE if Ben and John would drop out before tomorrow’s debate.
I have seen polls (for what they’re worth) saying between 40% and 60% of the GOP won’t vote for Trump. I’m thinking that 40% is closer to the right answer, but that is a significant block.
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Cruz’s brain is also supposed to be pretty spectacular. Reportedly, Alan Dershowitz said Cruz was the smartest student he ever had at Harvard Law School. The question is whether Cruz’s brain is large enough to overcome his ego. The poll out today showing essentially a 3-way tie among Rubio, Cruz, and Trump for Texas ought to give him something to think about.
Nominate Cruz for SCOTUS. Senate would be so happy to get rid of him they’d waive the hearings.
Once on the bench, Cruz would likely drive Ginsberg, Breyer and Kennedy to retire to get away from him.
Double win!
Steven Tyler has a message for those who think that if everybody but Rubio (or Cruz) got out of the race, Trump would be toast.
I told you guys how to beat Trump six months ago. You didn’t listen. If you had, we wouldn’t be having this conversation. If the establishment had shown the slightest interest in addressing the concerns of the base, there would be no Trump candidacy, much less his near-certain nomination.
Instead of trying to understand the base’s concerns, it was much simpler and more satisfying to dismiss them as crazies, children throwing a tantrum, etc.
The Bible says you reap what you sow. For decades, the GOP establishment has sown the wind, and now it is reaping the whirlwind.
There is some encouragement to be had from Trump’s Nevada victory, though. It demonstrates that Trump learns quickly and well from his mistakes. He blew Iowa by not building a proper GOTV organization. He did not make the same mistake in Nevada. He not only got his supporters to the caucus sites, he saw to it that they were provided with signs and t-shirts for the occasion. He didn’t just have phone banks nagging people, he had boots on the ground distributing the swag.
Maybe he figured it out on his own, or maybe he really has “gotten the best people” to work for him. Nevada is “making people’s heads spin”. Or explode.
Carey,
Neither Rubio or Cruz is the establishment. Jeb! is the establishment. He is the lunatic that spent a huge amount of money attacking Rubio while he couldn’t get the polls to register more than 3% for him. When the idiot finally got around to pushing back against Trump he went up to a whopping 6%.
Don’t blame Rubio or Cruz for this. I didn’t need Nevada to understand the situation. Each State is different but Trump has been let loose while the best candidates have been held back.
Let’s not cry over spilt milk. It’s Kasich and Carson that should get out and endorse either Cruz or Rubio. If they let their people be absorbed by Trump with no guidance they deserve a swift kick.
I agree that Cruz and Rubio have been less than perfect on issues but this is a totally phony attack because Trump makes them both look like perfect conservatives. Ann Coulter’s magic formula always involves a litmus test for everybody except Trump. I think Trump’s Taxes might just very well be his real Achilles heel. I doubt Romney would have said anything otherwise.
Regards,
Jim
Oh, Susan. I came to this thread for a little solace. Back to the ledge.
What’s left? Plutonium is his tea?
Ok 1/3 polls shows Cruz tied with Trump, the other 2 show Cruz winning. In all three polls Rubio is in 3rd. Now lets look at Florida. Rubio has never led his own State. The Real Clear Average shows Rubio and Curz basically tied for 2nd. (This could change some now that Bush is out of the race). If Cruz should drop out because Texas is tight, then Rubio should drop out because the polls show he is losing his home state.
I won’t dispute that Rubio must begin winning, but if Cruz can’t decisively defeat Trump in his home state it makes arguing that he can do so nationally… Problematic.
Congrats on your FoxNews appearance:
http://video.foxnews.com/v/4774241639001/has-donald-trump-reached-peak-support/?playlist_id=2694949841001#sp=show-clips
The problem with this analysis, from mid-January, is that it assumes that “Cruz will consolidate the evangelical vote.” This is not happening.
Trump won 33% of Evangelicals in SC and 40% of Evangelicals in NV.
Rubio won another 22% of Evangelicals in SC and 23% in NV.
I’ve found relatively little info re second choices, but the recent IBD national GOP nomination poll has:
It’s a relatively small poll with a 5% margin of error, and it doesn’t cross-tab first and second choices.
But this is some support for the idea that both Rubio and Cruz are more likely than Trump to pick up votes if others drop out.
And what about Rubio’s inability to win his home state? Crickets…
If Rubio doesn’t win his home state then it’s lights out.
But Texas goes first. If Cruz goes down there, then he needs to be sensible about this.
But Trump doesn’t need to pick up as many votes. It’s good to be the frontrunner.
Rubio actually is a natural with Evangelicals. My guess is that the reason Trump won so many of them in South Carolina is that the pastors down there were trying to ram Cruz down their throats, and they were gagging. Maybe they looked around and said, “if Jerry Falwell, Jr., likes this guy Trump, he must be all right. Can’t abide that Cruz fellow.”
That is correct, but Super Tuesday states are all proportional delegate, and nobody is threatening to break through the winner-take-all threshold anywhere really.
What is likely to happen on Tuesday is this: Trump will essentially hold serve by winning pluralities in multiple states while Cruz and Rubio will fall slightly further behind him.
Depending upon the outcome in TX, Cruz has a difficult decision to make.