Gentlemen, It’s Time to Do Your Sad Duty

 

Over at The Weekly Standard today, Bill Kristol put up poll results from South Carolina. Although the pollster wished to remain anonymous, Bill explained, he was unaffiliated with any of the campaigns and is both “honest” and “competent.” Here’s where his work indicates that matters now stand:

  • Trump 32
  • Cruz 26
  • Rubio 20
  • Bush 10
  • Carson 7
  • Kasich 2

In re which, a friend left this note in my inbox:

If Bill’s friend’s numbers are right, Jeb needs to get out of this race … for the good of the Republic.

Things are getting serious — and the phrase “for the good of the Republic” does indeed apply, does it not? And it goes without saying that if the moment has come for Jeb, then it has come as well for Dr. Carson and Gov. Kasich.

Gentlemen, it’s time.

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  1. Theodoric of Freiberg Member
    Theodoric of Freiberg
    @TheodoricofFreiberg

    Peter Robinson:Gentlemen, it’s time.

    Right you are, sir!

    I don’t see any of the support for Bush or Kasich going to Trump. That’s 12 points right there. I would assume that most of Carson’s support would not go to Trump either since their personas are antithetical. That’s 19 points in total. If they’re split between Cruz and Rubio, you have a whole new race:

    • Cruz 35.5
    • Trump 32
    • Rubio 29.5
    • #61
  2. Ball Diamond Ball Inactive
    Ball Diamond Ball
    @BallDiamondBall

    Guruforhire: SS and Medicare are largely popular on the right. “Keep your hands off of my medicare” was 50% of the tea party.

    You keep saying that.  I don;t think that’s true.

    • #62
  3. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    BDB, Tea Parties are not ubiquitous and frequently have different priorities.

    However, where SS and Medicare are concerned these are treated as sacrosanct and are the reason(s) I think the Tea Parties’ hypocrisy is keeping us from being a national party/force at the federal level.

    The Tea Party limited government, free market, mantra stops at age based entitlements. It is a flaw in the message that is hindering Tea Party influence.

    • #63
  4. Kate Braestrup Member
    Kate Braestrup
    @GrannyDude

    Ball Diamond Ball:

    Kate Braestrup: Also, Trump didn’t break faith with the base because Trump has never been elected or, for that matter, hired to do anything for the base or for anyone else. Except Trump. As soon as he is in the White House, Trump will break faith with somebody, and probably with everybody. Except Trump.

    Obvious and not the point. if Marco Rubio sponsored a bill to give Ball Diamond Ball a million dollars, I would campaign against it because I do not trust him. I don’t mean because he’s some sort of unknown. He’s not sorry, he doesn’t repent of amnesty, he screwed us, and he’ll do it again. That’s not a vague suspicion, or a prognostication borne of a visceral dislike for some loudmouth Noo Yawkah. That’s his plan, as he says.

    Rubio IS amnesty, and amnesty is destruction.

    Trump really is a protest vote, then, BDB? (By the way, I wish you were running—your protests would be just as provocative and a lot more fun to listen to).

    If amnesty is destruction, destruction is inevitable: Hillary = Amnesty, and Hillary can definitely beat the Donald. I think Bernie can beat the Donald, too.

    If we’re rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic anyhow, why isn’t it worth our while to get some conservative justices on the S.C. or prune the regulatory state, or reinvigorate welfare reform, so Americans can be a little happier and freer before the ship actually slides beneath the waves? Or, for that matter, why not try to hire a president with an attractive face and voice (perhaps the soothing, standing-by-your-hospice-bed mien of Dr. Carson?)  if only so we don’t have to look at the Donald’s hairdo and pinched and squinty expression for four years? Sorry, I know that’s shallow and trivial.

    I suppose it’s a question of how close to the End we believe ourselves to be?

    • #64
  5. Guruforhire Inactive
    Guruforhire
    @Guruforhire

    Gilmore is the one true way and the only candidate who can unit all the factions.

    All you have to do ladies and gentlemen is turn away from the trainwreck.

    • #65
  6. Ball Diamond Ball Inactive
    Ball Diamond Ball
    @BallDiamondBall

    BrentB67:BDB, Tea Parties are not ubiquitous and frequently have different priorities.

    However, where SS and Medicare are concerned these are treated as sacrosanct and are the reason(s) I think the Tea Parties’ hypocrisy is keeping us from being a national party/force at the federal level.

    The Tea Party limited government, free market, mantra stops at age based entitlements. It is a flaw in the message that is hindering Tea Party influence.

    As you say, your mileage may vary.

    • #66
  7. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Editor
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    Kate Braestrup: If we’re rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic anyhow,

    … then I want my Social Security. I’m only willing to negotiate on that up if you can convince me we’re not.

    (This is an oblique reply to BB67. I’m thinking about what it would take to persuade people that they have to deal with this. I don’t think scaring them will make them do it; in fact, I think it has the opposite effect. I think they have to be inspired to think there’s a future for the country.)

    • #67
  8. Ball Diamond Ball Inactive
    Ball Diamond Ball
    @BallDiamondBall

    Kate Braestrup: If we’re rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic anyhow, why isn’t it worth our while to get some conservative justices

    You;re making the nihilist argument for same old same old?  new one on me.

    • #68
  9. Ball Diamond Ball Inactive
    Ball Diamond Ball
    @BallDiamondBall

    Kate Braestrup: If amnesty is destruction, destruction is inevitable: Hillary = Amnesty, and Hillary can definitely beat the Donald. I think Bernie can beat the Donald, too.

    BULL.  This is the defeatist GOP thinking that has earned them a trip to the trashheap.

    If amnesty is inevitable, why bother with any of this?  Shoot yourselves now and leave a note in Spanish, right?

    • #69
  10. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Editor
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    Kate Braestrup:I realize this may seem like a trivial issue to some, but given how race relations have deteriorated in the past 8 years (?!?!!), whom do y’all think has the best shot at improving the actual and perceived conditions for African Americans?

    I think both would be helped most by a vibrant economy in which people feel and see the possibility of upward mobility around them. But I’m afraid we may not get that kind of economy for quite some time, because we’ve got some huge economic transformations going on, and people want to be protected from them, which will prolong the agony. So I’m asking myself who would best help to keep people basically decent if it’s a very rough decade ahead, which I think it’s apt to be.

    • #70
  11. Fat Dave Inactive
    Fat Dave
    @FatDave

    I’ll go with the defeatist over the deluded any day.  “The problem with this country is it is being run by billionaires, developers, and Democrats, so I’m voting for a billionaire Democratic developer!”  “Rubio has screwed us, so I’m voting for a friend of Hillary with whom I agree 98% on 50% of his positions, which he has held for 1.5% of his lifespan.”  While I am no Cruz supporter, at least be honest with yourself and support him over Trump.  Trump is a complete charlatan and most likely a Clintonista fifth column.

    • #71
  12. RyanFalcone Member
    RyanFalcone
    @RyanFalcone

    We are in this pickle because generations of men have snorted at whatever followed any exhortation that followed the phrase “For the good of the Republic…” It is hyperbolic to refer to a paper cut as deadly…unless it is the 1000th such paper cut.

    • #72
  13. Ball Diamond Ball Inactive
    Ball Diamond Ball
    @BallDiamondBall

    Fat Dave:I’ll go with the defeatist over the deluded any day. “The problem with this country is it is being run by billionaires, developers, and Democrats, so I’m voting for a billionaire Democratic developer!” “Rubio has screwed us, so I’m voting for a friend of Hillary with whom I agree 98% on 50% of his positions, which he has held for 1.5% of his lifespan.” While I am no Cruz supporter, at least be honest with yourself and support him over Trump. Trump is a complete charlatan and most likely a Clintonista fifth column.

    Lick the hand that feeds you.

    • #73
  14. Ball Diamond Ball Inactive
    Ball Diamond Ball
    @BallDiamondBall

    Fat Dave:I’ll go with the defeatist over the deluded any day. “The problem with this country is it is being run by billionaires, developers, and Democrats, so I’m voting for a billionaire Democratic developer!” “Rubio has screwed us, so I’m voting for a friend of Hillary with whom I agree 98% on 50% of his positions, which he has held for 1.5% of his lifespan.” While I am no Cruz supporter, at least be honest with yourself and support him over Trump. Trump is a complete charlatan and most likely a Clintonista fifth column.

    Don’t shout at me, bud.  Hit up your fellows in the travelling coward political show who prefer defeat to fighting with an unknown outcome when it matters.  Get the establishment to sign up for Cruz, and Trump goes away.

    Short of that, you can all burn.

    • #74
  15. Ball Diamond Ball Inactive
    Ball Diamond Ball
    @BallDiamondBall

    Fat Dave: While I am no Cruz supporter, at least be honest with yourself and support him over Trump. Trump is a complete charlatan and most likely a Clintonista fifth column.

    I am honest.  Perhaps you haven’t been listening for the last year.

    • #75
  16. Mike H Coolidge
    Mike H
    @MikeH

    BrentB67:

    J. D. Fitzpatrick:

    Frank Soto:

    Fred Cole:

    Frank Soto:

    Fred Cole:“For the good of the Republic” seems a touch hyperbolic. As if the Republic will collapse if Rubio isn’t nominated. It just isn’t so.

    Quick reminder that Fred is on record as hoping that both parties are destroyed at contested conventions. Some men just want to watch the world burn.

    That’s not what I said and, no, not the whole world.

    Context is important. And if I recall, when you questioned me on it, I quoted Thomas Jefferson:

    I hold it that a little rebellion now and then is a good thing, and as necessary in the political world as storms in the physical.

    Take a joke, Fred.

    In Fred’s defense, I did not take your remark as a joke either. Perhaps you are taking humor lessons from Ted Cruz? ;)

    Why the Ted Cruz slander?

    Now that was obviously a joke. There’s a freaking wink after all! ;)

    • #76
  17. Fat Dave Inactive
    Fat Dave
    @FatDave

    Ball Diamond Ball:

    Don’t shout at me, bud. Hit up your fellows in the travelling coward political show who prefer defeat to fighting with an unknown outcome when it matters. Get the establishment to sign up for Cruz, and Trump goes away.

    Short of that, you can all burn.

    My experience is here is Virginia, so I don’t know what Trump’s following is elsewhere, but the Trumpkin ringleaders in the Commonwealth are the same people who have been forcing ever-stricter ideological litmus tests on the Party, declaring anyone to the left of them GOPe and RINOs.  It is pretty darn disingenuous to then support someone with absolutely no ideology whatsoever, besides might makes right.  I have to admit, the GOP has done a horrible job cultivating the blue collar vote, and a couple of friends and I did an experiment in our precinct with a local state senatorial candidate, staging a meet’n’greet at a local watering hole.  The candidate won that precinct handily, but despite our protestations, his bowtied little College Republican campaign manager refused to help us with our effort or use it in other precincts.  Combine that with a TEA Party spoiler, and a rock-ribbed conservative went down to defeat in favor of someone who previously had approached the Democratic Senatorial leadership to run on their ticket.  We can win the blue collar vote, but it takes more than slick college kids to do it.

    • #77
  18. Kate Braestrup Member
    Kate Braestrup
    @GrannyDude

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    Kate Braestrup: If we’re rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic anyhow,

    … then I want my Social Security. I’m only willing to negotiate on that up if you can convince me we’re not.

    (This is an oblique reply to BB67. I’m thinking about what it would take to persuade people that they have to deal with this. I don’t think scaring them will make them do it; in fact, I think it has the opposite effect. I think they have to be inspired to think there’s a future for the country.)

    I agree, Claire. The seductive temptations of despair; “things are bad but things can get better” is a good message.

    I understand the rage-n-pain part of Trump-Appeal. I just don’t get the Trump part of Trump-Appeal.

    • #78
  19. Kate Braestrup Member
    Kate Braestrup
    @GrannyDude

    Fat Dave: the Trumpkin ringleaders in the Commonwealth are the same people who have been forcing ever-stricter ideological litmus tests on the Party, declaring anyone to the left of them GOPe and RINOs.

    Well, yes. This, too.

    It’s very odd.

    • #79
  20. Bob Laing Member
    Bob Laing
    @

    Guruforhire:So what is the message here for the 35-40% of the party that supports Trump?

    Go away? Shut up and send money? This isn’t really a coalition, you work for us, now shut up? Interesting, and you guys call trump a fascist.

    You don’t think the 30% (It’s not 35%-40%) of the party that supports Trump isn’t doing the same thing?  I think we have reached an impasse. I’m truly starting to believe that Cruz is the reasonable compromise between Rubio and Trump.

    • #80
  21. Kate Braestrup Member
    Kate Braestrup
    @GrannyDude

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    Kate Braestrup:I realize this may seem like a trivial issue to some, but given how race relations have deteriorated in the past 8 years (?!?!!), whom do y’all think has the best shot at improving the actual and perceived conditions for African Americans?

    I think both would be helped most by a vibrant economy in which people feel and see the possibility of upward mobility around them. But I’m afraid we may not get that kind of economy for quite some time, because we’ve got some huge economic transformations going on, and people want to be protected from them, which will prolong the agony. So I’m asking myself who would best help to keep people basically decent if it’s a very rough decade ahead, which I think it’s apt to be.

    I think it’s interesting that race (and, for that matter, class) relations are  so bad after eight years of Obama. Has anyone explained the phenomenon? If I were Obama (or H or B) I’d really be doing some soul-searching on this. Making black people at least feel better if not actually be better is what the left is supposed to be all about.   I wonder if they would go on getting worse under either Hillary or Bernie, and  might they actually get better (perhaps the economy, too?) under the GOP? (Is this something only I worry about?)

    • #81
  22. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    Kate Braestrup: I just don’t get the Trump part of Trump-Appeal.

    “to the last I grapple with thee; from hell’s heart I stab at thee; for hate’s sake I spit my last breath at thee.”

    That is what the Trump part is about.   The plebes realize they are losing the fight and are going to make it hurt as much as it can.

    • #82
  23. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    Kate Braestrup: f I were Obama (or H or B) I’d really be doing some soul-searching on this.

    This action requires a soul.  Thus Obama (or H or B) can not do it and can not even understand why they would want too.

    • #83
  24. I Walton Member
    I Walton
    @IWalton

    Bush can’t get out until the parasites have spent all his money.  Let’s just get them to spend it on anti Democrat ads.   I almost said anti Trump ads but they get it wrong and increase Trump support.

    • #84
  25. wmartin Member
    wmartin
    @

    First real poll out of SC just came out, from Opinion Savvy (pollster with a pretty good record). Big lead for Trump at 36%, Cruz and Rubio way behind at 19% and 15%.

    • #85
  26. Guruforhire Inactive
    Guruforhire
    @Guruforhire

    After SC it maybe to late to turn to the only hope the party has:  Gilmore.

    • #86
  27. Mike H Coolidge
    Mike H
    @MikeH

    wmartin:First real poll out of SC just came out, from Opinion Savvy (pollster with a pretty good record). Big lead for Trump at 36%, Cruz and Rubio way behind at 19% and 15%.

    It’s basically a duplicate of the most recent poll before that. I wonder if that’s really how the race stands or they were eyeing that poll strongly when they were in the field.

    • #87
  28. Douglas Inactive
    Douglas
    @Douglas

    Fake John/Jane Galt:

    Kate Braestrup: I just don’t get the Trump part of Trump-Appeal.

    “to the last I grapple with thee; from hell’s heart I stab at thee; for hate’s sake I spit my last breath at thee.”

    That is what the Trump part is about. The plebes realize they are losing the fight and are going to make it hurt as much as it can.

    Well, in National Review’s case, it’s “For hate’s sake, I publish at thee!”

    • #88
  29. Douglas Inactive
    Douglas
    @Douglas

    Guruforhire:After SC it maybe to late to turn to the only hope the party has: Gilmore.

    Jeb Bush is going to strangle your hope the way he’s going to strangle his rivals… with their own entrails. There can be only one!

    • #89
  30. Arizona Patriot Member
    Arizona Patriot
    @ArizonaPatriot

    The Opinion Saavy poll was for the Augusta Chronicle and is reported at RCP under this name.

    RCP has 2 polls for SC circa January 20, and one today.  Adding the poll reported in Peter’s OP gives the following averages, showing minimal change:

    Trump:  38% mid-Jan, 34% now
    Cruz:  21% mid-Jan, 23% now
    Rubio:  12% mid-Jan, 18% now
    Bush:  9% mid-Jan, 11% now
    Kasich:  2% mid-Jan, 6% now

    We’ve seen in both IA and SC that the actual results can depart significantly from the polls.

    I agree with Peter that Bush doesn’t have a winning path forward.  Ditto for Carson.  They ought to drop out, and probably will after SC.

    I think that Kasich will remain in, as he still has a winning path, though it’s a long shot.  We’ve seen talk of a brokered convention and an alternative like Mitch Daniels, who did not even run.  Kasich has a better case to make than Daniels.

    • #90
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