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What Did You Learn in 2015?
Tomorrow’s the day for New Year’s predictions and resolutions. But before making them impulsively, join me in reflecting a bit on 2015.
What was the most important thing you learned in 2015? Specifically,
- What was the most important new insight you had about American politics?
- What trend or event surprised you most?
- What was the most important new insight you had about global politics?
- What trend or event surprised you most?
If you were surprised, what underlying assumptions led you astray?
Published in General
The Trump phenomenon teaches that the desire for the unprincipled strongman never dies. His chin thrust reminds me of Mussolini.
I’ll take a principled conservative instead.
Why? Serious question. Also, do you think it is possible that by providing the relief valve of migration the problems in Syria will actually be prolonged and made worse? If those who are fleeing had nowhere to run, is it possible that they might, by staying and having no choice but to pick a side and fight, solve their country’s problems and do so more quickly?
Well, when one half supports the dismantling of traditional Western culture, advocates open borders and the subsequent importation of hostile barbarians that will put the lives of the other half at risk, and further wishes to disarm the other half, hatred and distrust is only logical.
The majority of Syrian refugees will have to be settled, permanently, in third countries.
–And hear a) you lose me, and b) History shows you wrong. It would be quite simple to fix Syria and settle the refugees back in there homeland.
–We just lack the will of proceeding generations to do so. We are to comfortable. Once briefly the world was shaken by 9/11 and people behaved properly. But after a brief victory in Afghanistan people retreated back into there comfortable sleep.
–I have been watching a lot of Poirot recently. Edwardian England was a golden age. And we will miss what we currently have when its gone.
–When Iran uses its Nuke to take out New York city and kills a couple million people. I think that will be the civilizational shock that ends this epoch and replaces it with the next.
–A whole lot of people are going to die after that.
Why do you assume NYC? I would assume Tel Aviv instead. Other than that, I agree with you completely. I think what comes next might, just might, make WWII look like a minor skirmish in regard to the number of dead.
What was the most important new insight you had about American politic?
More Republican voters than I imagined possible are susceptible to carnival barker politics based on their insecurities and need to be gratified by their celebrity candidate.
What trend or event surprised you most?
Tie between the continual, opportunistic surges of the Trump campaign and the colossal error of Merkel’s refugee policy, which was at least grand and proportionate to the crisis, unlike our chief executive’s posturing.
What was the most important new insight you had about global politics?
It all depends on smart assertive leadership and confident assertion of national interest. Hope and change postures and globalist pandering is bootless. Big winners in 2015: two nations whose sole economic asset is cratering: Iran and Russia. I cannot imagine they will not conspire on some event to send that asset towards $150 per barrel soon.
What trend or event surprised you most?
The end of American influence on (let alone over) world events. It’s ending in a whimper from Republicans and golf claps from liberals.
If you were surprised, what underlying assumptions led you astray?
My assumption that while adults, particularly more centrist and conservative adults, may react to events with emotion and fear, we soon rebound and respond with common sense, decent regard for facts and practical if imperfect reference to our values. Maybe I haven’t recovered from the past five years with five teenagers in the house, but the country seems so adolescent.
1.) How intellectually bankrupt the mainstream right is
2.) How rapidly the republican coalition is falling apart.
3.) Europe is still very much a collection of ethno-states underneath the surface
4.) The muslim invasion of western europe.
Because NYC (or London or Paris or Berlin) is what it will take for people to realize that the Iranians cannot be reasoned with. If Tel Aviv goes up a distressing number of people will claim that the Jews had it coming.
Well, look what the last two nominees got them, particularly in 2012.
Romney was everything they were told could take back the White House: Northeastern roots, blue state governor, and moderate. Establishment, next in line, etc, etc.
Sorry – but he may be the Ross Perot of our time – if he makes good on choosing Cruz as his VP – they may be the ticket – we’ve had actors, peanut farmers for presidents – as a business developer, at least we know he would surround himself with the best – it’s what he does in business. It’s not the end of the world as we know it – but it could be if the Clintons were allowed back in the White House….and Lincoln bedroom…
Anybody but Omarosa.
ToryWarWriter – welcome to Ricochet – glad to have you – can you share where you report from – just curious? Claire, I hear you – it’s overwhelming – the combined threats surpass any one individual threat, but that being said, I wonder if there is a Hitler character that we do not recognize, but you may be observing – as things unravel on a world-wide scale – I cannot remember in my lifetime where so many serious issues seem to be engulfing the world simultaneously – it is truly disturbing.
But it’s New Year’s Eve – you are safe with your kitties – your dad is well and recuperating – Happy New Year to you! We left a Mexican restaurant after seeing a movie – and a few shared Margaritas – on the way home (to hug our kitty and watch the Twilight Zone Marathon – we’re lightweights), we were listening to a radio show where “Alice Cooper” was hosting…..he was playing oldies but goodies…we cranked the Allman Bros. and I said to my husband, this is what separates us from the terrorists! Southern Rock… not gonna let ’em catch me – no!
I don’t recall those Romney talking points in 2012 EJ. Wasn’t
“severely conservative”, “self deportation” (a good policy but a bad marketing move) and “pro-growth Reaganite” the snake oil then?
I agree that you’ve accurately summarized the reality of Romney. I lived in the New York Berkshires during Romney’s MA gubernatorial run in 2002 and was treated to his apologetic left-of-center positioning daily on public radio. His pride at his mother’s role in legalizing abortion in their home state, his “unequivocal” support for abortion etc. ad nauseam.
Yet that doesn’t make Cruz, or Rubio, a McCain or a Romney.
And it doesn’t make Trump’s campaign any less of a carnival barker/insult comic routine in my opinion.
Quake, I’m not defending Trump or his supporters. But certain conditions have to exist for people like him (and Obama) to exist. The Republican Party is Dr. Frankenstein and this is their monster.
Well, let’s hope we can strand the DC GOP, National Chamber of Commerce, Mitch McConnell, Karl Rove, Haley Barbour, Rick Wilson, Jeb! Bush and Donald Trump in a metaphorical North Pole this January before too much damage is done and begin to nominate a real conservative.
I don’t think he’s an unrecognized threat, but it strikes me as remarkable that on that list of concerns, I didn’t even mention Kim Jong-un. North Korea’s a tyranny without parallel in the contemporary world and a full-fledged nuclear power. Somehow this news went barely reported in May:
And I assume this is roughly correct as well.
They’re also a one-stop online shopping bazaar for nuclear and ballistic missile technology — and this is a huge problem for all the reasons I mentioned. I suspect we’re so used to hearing Kim Jong-il threaten to incinerate us that we tune it out as bluster that means nothing. But they’re able to inflict more damage than Hitler could have dreamt, and the regime is demonstrably every bit as cruel and crazy. I don’t think that can be shrugged off.
************
*In a world of bad news, the opening of Burma is a bright spot, and I think it’s been handled well by the Obama Administration. It’s diminished the likelihood of Burma becoming a North Korean customer.
Because most won’t be able to go back, barring a miracle — by which I mean an event so unlikely and unprecedented in history that it can be explained only by divine intervention. Syria’s been destroyed.
No. The outflux isn’t a “relief valve.” They are really refugees — no scare quotes.
I have a feeling sometimes that people don’t believe the reports of the scale of the catastrophe in Syria, but I don’t know why they don’t. I understand that people suspect partisan bias in the media, but this is going too far — it can be independently verified in a million ways. This isn’t like the Holocaust, when people could plausibly say that they didn’t realize it was happening or they thought it was warmongering propaganda. We know it’s happening.
Now that Russia’s involved, there’s no hope, barring a miracle. Russia will see to it that there’s nothing left but Assad and ISIS. The only power that could conceivably stop it is ours, but there’s absolutely no way Americans would be willing to do it, so it’s a moot point.
We don’t have the power to take on Russia — how could Syrians? And their only alternative, at this rate, will be ISIS. That wasn’t true before, but that’s going to be true soon enough.
This has really happened; this is happening. What greater hell could there be than being penned between two genocidal armies? Of course they’re fleeing and will keep trying to flee, no matter how we try to push them back in.
Not me – only because I expect them to be rational in their target selection. America is well armed (mostly) so I think a Mumbai type attack to end up more like the aftermath of the Boston Bombing.
That’s true in a sense, ‘Stug, but there are relatively unarmed pockets.
Then again, there is Kennesaw Mountain, Georgia – God bless them.
Michael Totten has to report on some pretty grisly stuff, doesn’t he. Wonder if it gets to him after a while.
Thanks for another excellent link.
From Michael Totten’s article that you linked to (and people should read the entire article):