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This Could All Be Over Very Fast
The latest poll shows Ted Cruz opening his lead over Donald Trump in Iowa to nine points — nine points. If Cruz does indeed win in the Iowa caucuses on February 1, he’ll have enough momentum going into the February 9 New Hampshire primary to place second or third. The next primary will take place on February 20 in South Carolina, where the GOP primary voters are deeply conservative — and, I suspect, likely to give Cruz first place. Three days later the caucuses in Nevada will take place. Receiving little attention in the press, this event will be determined largely by organization on the ground — giving the advantage to Cruz once again.
Which brings us to March 1 and Super Tuesday, when two states will hold GOP caucuses and another ten — including southern states, where Cruz polls well, and his home state of Texas — will hold primaries. If by then Cruz has indeed won Iowa, done well in New Hampshire, and won again in South Carolina, then on Super Tuesday he’s likely to prove dominant.
It stands to reason that Marco Rubio will do well in the Florida primary on March 15 — but it could all be over by then.
All this is predicated, again, on Cruz’s winning in Iowa five weeks from now — and that makes five weeks in which anything might happen, including a collapse in his numbers. But as of now it looks to me as if Ted Cruz will indeed win in Iowa — and that the scenario I sketched out above is entirely plausible.
Published in General
Ted Cruz’ ground game has also been good on the road. I understand that he has carpet-bombed Guam, which helps with mastering the requirement under whatever the 2012 rule change math was. Last I heard, he was doing quite well there for the primary.
Looks like the RINOs are getting some coal in their stockings. Fortunately, Ted Cruz has the perfect gift for them:
We can hope.
It’s the Texas revenge. Here in New York City where 80% of voters are Democrats and in much of the Northeast, they think that people who live in “fly-over” country (anyone outside the Northeast, Florida and California) are a bunch of God-fearing gun-toting dummies, especially if they are white, suburban and middle-class. So how appropriate that the next President could be a super smart conservative from Texas.
TX is proportional; FL is winner take all. Advantage Rubio.
CA could be relevant again.
I think this year is different (just like every year, I know), in that the base is FURIOUS with congress. If not for this fact I think Rubio has a good chance, but I don’t see any indication that he is positioning himself as the outsider in a serious way. In addition, the “establishment” (80% of congress) seems to be lining up with Rubio. I think this actually hurts him.
I live near Nashville and Cruz will be here tomorrow. In our state, Cruz being hated by our Senators is a feature, not a bug. I work in Alabama and the sentiment is the same there.
The wild card for Cruz is how will Trump really do when the votes start getting cast by GOP primary voters. Tennessee has open primaries so it could get really interesting. If Cruz really has a better ground game then Trump, then he could start to wrap it up after Super Tuesday. If not, all bet’s are off.
HRC: Senator Cruz is an inexperience candidate who didn’t even serve a full term in the Senate.
TC: Your party’s President Barack Obama, whom you served, without distinction I might add, also served less than a full term in the Senate.
HRC: Senator, I served Barack Obama. I know Barack Obama. Barack Obama is a friend of mine. Senator, you’re no Barack Obama.
TC: Secretary Clinton, you have summarized, in the clearest way possible, my message to the American people
I think you’re getting ahead of yourself. While I agree that Cruz will dominate the early primaries, Rubio has a built in advantage in the late primaries where there are more states with more moderate GOP voters. Either way its going to be very interesting.
Hillary’s attack on Cruz would be a simple one: he’s “Shutdown Ted”, a man incapable of compromise whose presidency promises four more years of dysfunction and animosity.
Overcoming that reputation in the general will be Cruz’s singular challenge, even as it helps him in the primary.
Find it hard to believe Cruz will wrap it up early. As other commenters suggest, I figure Rubio will benefit from most as the field shrinks.
Regardless, I can’t get all that exercised about a Cruz vs. Rubio championship game. I’ll gladly vote for either.
I wonder if Cruz and Trump have reached their ceiling. Candidates are going to start dropping out. Do they go to Cruz or Trump or do they go to Rubio. Not based on anything really I get the feeling Rubio has the most growth potential to attract new voters or voters who supported candidates who dropped out.
Anybody but Trump, but the person who could actually do what I think should be done, is Carly. And at this point, we must remind ourselves, “prediction is really difficult, especially about the future.”
Rubio probably has an advantage among non-Trump voters.
Cruz’s game all along has been to gain advantage among Trump voters.
Who drops out when is important to which one of the two is seen as picking up momentum.
Actually who was it on the pod cast a bit ago said that Jeb is the one who benefits from Trump losing voters. Trump is over overwhelmingly the second choice for Jeb supports and Trump supports overwhelming have Jeb as the second choice. So based on that it is actually because of Trump Jeb is doing so bad. Yes it does not make sense but voters on a whole are not rational or logical when they don’t study the issues like we do.
Jeb may be second choice for a lot of people. I’m looking at Cruz-Rubio.
You highlight the who-when importance. Does the order in which Trump and Jeb drop out make a difference between Cruz and Rubio?
I suspect that Cruz’s unpleasant preachy demeanor will sink in upon further exposure, sort of the way Hillary’s popularity falls the more she is exposed. Those inclined to support him are not as mindless as the Trumpomatons.
Well, I kind of have a unique way of seeing it. That is, I don’t see it at all.
I haven’t watched a single second of debate, I haven’t seen a poll, I don’t have a preference, I don’t really know what order states vote in or how that works…
Here’s what I do: I watch real humans. The people at soccer practice, the people shopping for Christmas gifts, the guy spitting in the street. They don’t know about polls and stuff either. What they know is “it.”
When they see a guy with “it” they like it. Rubio has it.
Trump kind of has it but he has a strange kind of it that, if he tries to cash in on it, he’ll lose it. So he’s stuck.
Nobody else has it.
So that’s my system.
Seriously!?? What does that mean other than people are selecting candidates based on name recognition.
Your system has a pretty good record.
Lindsey Graham dropped out this morning. We will have to wait and see where his 1.5% ends up.
Rubio has it.
Cruz has a good learning curve. He is a lot more likable than he was, to take one example.
I have reservations about both. I think Rubio is likely to be a poor decision-maker – a poor executive. Like others here, I think Cruz is less likely to win when all voters are deciding.
I’m guessing the Pataki juggernaut will scoop it up.
The best part is, when it stops working I won’t care all that much.
Didn’t you mean to say, BREAKING NEWS?!
/snark off
That was my thought as well. Great minds and all that.
Just one other member of the Gang of Eight is running…
But now you have followers to consider. It isn’t easy being a rock star pundit.
Huh. Lindsay Graham was running for President? That is news…
H/T to WC…