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Rubio Leads the Ricochet Caucus, Trump Gaining
It’s that time again for your monthly update. Rubio continues to lead the pack with a sizable margin with Cruz right behind him. In 3rd and 4th place are Fiorina and Trump(!), more on that later.
For the 2nd choice, the Ricochet vote is roughly an even split between Rubio, Cruz, and Fiorina. Interestingly, Christie emerges from statistical insignificance.
For Rubio supporters, their 2nd choice mostly goes to Cruz and Fiorina.
For Cruz supporters, their 2nd choice goes to Rubio and Fiorina.
It seems Ricochet members have mostly settled on Rubio or Cruz. Among those who supported Trump, their second choice goes to Cruz, which makes sense given the dynamics of the race.
I plotted the vote shares of these four candidates and you can see Trump’s rise. He’s still far back in the pack but last month Ricochet members saw something in this guy that made them want to select his box.
Lastly, I want to show a chart comparing Ricochet with the RCP average. This graphic gives a nice visual illustration of where Ricochet members diverge from the national primary GOP electorate.
The sample size was 357, which yields a sampling error of less than +/-5.2%.
Published in General
Too busy to check in. But it’s disappointing to see an intelligent group favoring an amnesty shill so strongly. It’s really quite pathetic. If he wins, enjoy the one-party state and rule that will follow from amnesty. At least Rubio supporters will still get invited to all the fashionable liberal cocktail parties in the urban areas around the country. Enjoy your Starbucks.
Oh, for God’s sake. Really?
Thanks for answering. ;)
Never been invited to one. Please.
So happens I voted for Rubio because I believe at this stage he looks like the candidate most likely to preserve as much freedom as possible.
Max, can we get hold of the dataset?
I think it is unfair to cast Rubio as an amnesty-guy.
If we get the Presidency and hold House and Senate, we still need to try and create a bipartisan aspect to any decision on immigration. One problem with Obama care besides being fiscally unfeasible, is that it was jammed through. An historic piece of legislation, one of biggest impacts ever – and Democrats wouldn’t compromise and include some fiscally sound measures like competition and expansion of HSAs.
Immigration will have to include some pathway to legality. And it is better to get some sensible Democrats in on it. And I believe Rubio was simply trying to get a deal better than what we have now, which is executive orders and bureaucratic marching orders – all on steroids.
He is smart as a whip and he is great on 90% of what we believe in and he would kick Hilary’s butt.
Actually, it doesn’t. We don’t need any new laws we just need to enforce the ones already passed. That is the job of the president. If the current ones aren’t being enforced what expectation is there that new ones will be?
There doesn’t need to be a compromise either, if we have the votes, because we won. Obamacare is the law of the land. It won’t be repealed but it’ll likely be “fixed”. That it does not have one republican signature on it doesn’t make it any less of a law.
Legalization will happen because the politicians want it to happen and legalization is amnesty.
What I meant is that I voted in one poll and it was never clear to me that new primary polls were up periodically. I saw what I assumed to be the same poll warning not to vote in it twice, so I did not.
Historically how well does this poll track with actual primary voting?
Appears that now the acceleration of Cruz’s curve rules. Good.
The real key is not association with one of 12 self-described organizations that use the words “TEA Party” in their endless fundraising letters, but the reality of the 98% ACU rating.
I suspect that our comm enter here is simply another one of those anti-immigrant absolutists.
Does anybody here actually believe that there’s a dime’s worth of difference in the ultimate political implications of “legalization” vs. “path to citizenship?”
Once formerly-illegal immigrants are legal residents, the pressure to live up to “who we are” and allow them to become part of that grand panorama that is America will stigmatize anyone who tries to keep them off the voting rolls.
The rule of law is an anachronism now.
Yup. Those “Jose Crow” laws will never stand.
Well, maybe a dime’s worth. I actually can see that sticking for a good long time. But even if it did, I don’t think it’s a difference that will have much long-term impact on the future of the country.
I like Rubio but you are right. Rubio has integrity but he is not conservative. He is Center right, more fiscally conservative than G.W. on Finances but on the social side a look a like. Other than on Common Core Rubio is actually more of a moderate than Jeb who is very conservative fiscally and on many social issues.
So the Cubans are winning. We might actually have to thank the corpse of Castro for giving us a one of the few Conservative Presidents we will have had in 130 years.
I’m confused. Isn’t the big knock on Rubio that he made promises on immigration while running that he immediately broke as soon as he took office? That’s not a hallmark of integrity.
Am I in the right center-right club? Rubio at 40%? Who’s been baiting the RINO squishes??!
I didn’t vote as unfortunately I’m citizenship-challenged (being a Canadian) and don’t want to skew your numbers. But … really? Cruz and Fiorina are both clearly superior candidates to Rubio (especially my fellow Canadian Cruz :-) )…though they both would benefit from personality makeovers. Maybe Rubio would donate his personality to one of them after he gets out of this race…
“Center-right” is relative to how far left you think the center is. I’ll follow up with an old diatribe I saw here years ago.
— Found it —
You are not citizenship-challenged at Ricochet and we still want your vote on this. You shouldn’t misunderstand what polls here mean. We need all members participating and we are grateful that you know so much about the U.S. political system and problems. We are all citizens of the world at Ricochet — this is the nation of the mind here.
Larry’s correct. The Ricochet GOP nominee polls are polls of Ricochet members, not American citizens.