Rubio Leads the Ricochet Caucus, Trump Gaining

 

It’s that time again for your monthly update. Rubio continues to lead the pack with a sizable margin with Cruz right behind him. In 3rd and 4th place are Fiorina and Trump(!), more on that later.

1st choice ALL

For the 2nd choice, the Ricochet vote is roughly an even split between Rubio, Cruz, and Fiorina. Interestingly, Christie emerges from statistical insignificance.

2nd choice ALL

For Rubio supporters, their 2nd choice mostly goes to Cruz and Fiorina.

2nd choice Rubio

For Cruz supporters, their 2nd choice goes to Rubio and Fiorina.

2nd choice Cruz

It seems Ricochet members have mostly settled on Rubio or Cruz. Among those who supported Trump, their second choice goes to Cruz, which makes sense given the dynamics of the race.

2nd choice Trump

I plotted the vote shares of these four candidates and you can see Trump’s rise. He’s still far back in the pack but last month Ricochet members saw something in this guy that made them want to select his box.

Top 4 trend line

Lastly, I want to show a chart comparing Ricochet with the RCP average. This graphic gives a nice visual illustration of where Ricochet members diverge from the national primary GOP electorate.

RCP vs. Ricochet

The sample size was 357, which yields a sampling error of less than +/-5.2%.

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  1. BuckeyeSam Inactive
    BuckeyeSam
    @BuckeyeSam

    Too busy to check in. But it’s disappointing to see an intelligent group favoring an amnesty shill so strongly. It’s really quite pathetic. If he wins, enjoy the one-party state and rule that will follow from amnesty. At least Rubio supporters will still get invited to all the fashionable liberal cocktail parties in the urban areas around the country. Enjoy your Starbucks.

    • #61
  2. Max Ledoux Coolidge
    Max Ledoux
    @Max

    BuckeyeSam: At least Rubio supporters will still get invited to all the fashionable liberal cocktail parties in the urban areas around the country.

    Oh, for God’s sake. Really?

    • #62
  3. RabbitHoleRedux Inactive
    RabbitHoleRedux
    @RabbitHoleRedux

    Bereket Kelile:

    RabbitHoleRedux:Where do we vote?

    The vote takes place towards the end of each month. You’ll see it in the side bar to the right.

    Thanks for answering. ;)

    • #63
  4. Leigh Inactive
    Leigh
    @Leigh

    BuckeyeSam: If he wins, enjoy the one-party state and rule that will follow from amnesty. At least Rubio supporters will still get invited to all the fashionable liberal cocktail parties in the urban areas around the country. Enjoy your Starbucks.

    Never been invited to one. Please.

    So happens I voted for Rubio because I believe at this stage he looks like the candidate most likely to preserve as much freedom as possible.

    • #64
  5. Ball Diamond Ball Member
    Ball Diamond Ball
    @BallDiamondBall

    Max, can we get hold of the dataset?

    • #65
  6. douglas shaw Member
    douglas shaw
    @douglasshaw

    I think it is unfair to cast Rubio as an amnesty-guy.

    If we get the Presidency and hold House and Senate, we still need to try and create a bipartisan aspect to any decision on immigration. One problem with Obama care besides being fiscally unfeasible, is that it was jammed through.  An historic piece of legislation, one of biggest impacts ever – and Democrats wouldn’t compromise and include some fiscally sound measures like competition and expansion of HSAs.

    Immigration will have to include some pathway to legality.  And it is better to get some sensible Democrats in on it.  And I believe Rubio was simply trying to get a deal better than what we have now, which is executive orders and bureaucratic marching orders – all on steroids.

    He is smart as a whip and he is great on 90% of what we believe in and he would kick Hilary’s butt.

    • #66
  7. Cantankerous Homebody Inactive
    Cantankerous Homebody
    @CantankerousHomebody

    douglas shaw:Immigration will have to include some pathway to legality. And it is better to get some sensible Democrats in on it. And I believe Rubio was simply trying to get a deal better than what we have now, which is executive orders and bureaucratic marching orders – all on steroids.

    Actually, it doesn’t.  We don’t need any new laws we just need to enforce the ones already passed. That is the job of the president. If the current ones aren’t being enforced what expectation is there that new ones will be?

    There doesn’t need to be a compromise either, if we have the votes, because we won.  Obamacare is the law of the land. It won’t be repealed but it’ll likely be “fixed”.  That it does not have one republican signature on it doesn’t make it any less of a law.

    Legalization will happen because the politicians want it to happen and legalization is amnesty.

    • #67
  8. TeamAmerica Member
    TeamAmerica
    @TeamAmerica

    Max Ledoux:

    TeamAmerica: I assumed the sidebar poll was still the original one. It did not, AFAIK, indicate it was a second poll.

    I don’t know what that means.

    This was actually the 10th poll of the year.

    What I meant is that I voted in one poll and it was never clear to me that new primary polls were up periodically. I saw what I assumed to be the same poll warning not to vote in it twice, so I did not.

    • #68
  9. The Independent Whig Member
    The Independent Whig
    @

    Historically how well does this poll track with actual primary voting?

    • #69
  10. Tom Riehl Member
    Tom Riehl
    @

    Bereket Kelile:It’s that time again for your monthly update. Rubio continues to lead the pack with a sizable margin with Cruz right behind him. In 3rd and 4th place are Fiorina and Trump(!), more on that later.

    Appears that now the acceleration of Cruz’s curve rules.  Good.

    • #70
  11. Duane Oyen Member
    Duane Oyen
    @DuaneOyen

    Hoyacon:

    Jetstream:

    Rubio publicly disavowed any association with the Tea Party immediately after he won the Florida election for the U.S. senate. Rubio said in an interview he wasn’t associated with the Tea Party. If Rubio wasn’t associated with the Tea Party, how could he have a Tea Party origin?

    I’d just be repeating my previous answer, and I’m not all that wedded to a dispute over what “origins” means. Are you really going to make me go looking for endorsements of Rubio by various tea party organizations before or after his first candidacy? Rubio’s words as to his associations somewhat beg the question as to how those associations viewed him when it mattered.

    The real key is not association with one of 12 self-described organizations that use the words “TEA Party” in their endless fundraising letters, but the reality of the 98% ACU rating.

    I suspect that our comm enter here is simply another one of those anti-immigrant absolutists.

    • #71
  12. T-Fiks Member
    T-Fiks
    @TFiks

    Larry Koler: I’m starting to remember what I first liked about Christie a few years ago. I never got all that upset about his Obama/Hurricane Sandy photos but I did become worried he wasn’t really willing to do the hard work against immigration.

    Christie is up there near the top for me too. I prefer Cruz, but think that Christie and Rubio are more electable. I, too, wasn’t all that unhappy about the Hurricane Sandy episode by itself. It was his overt self-promotion combined with his lack of fire for Romney during his 2012 convention keynote speech that soured me on Christie for a long time. I think he’s a pretty good politician, though.

    • #72
  13. T-Fiks Member
    T-Fiks
    @TFiks

    Does anybody here actually believe that there’s a dime’s worth of difference in the ultimate political implications of “legalization” vs. “path to citizenship?”

    Once formerly-illegal immigrants are legal residents, the pressure to live up to “who we are” and allow them to become part of that grand panorama that is America will stigmatize anyone who tries to keep them off the voting rolls.

    The rule of law is an anachronism now.

    • #73
  14. Ball Diamond Ball Member
    Ball Diamond Ball
    @BallDiamondBall

    T-Fiks:Does anybody here actually believe that there’s a dime’s worth of difference in the ultimate political implications of “legalization” vs. “path to citizenship?”

    Once formerly-illegal immigrants are legal residents, the pressure to live up to “who we are” and allow them to become part of that grand panorama that is America will stigmatize anyone who tries to keep them off the voting rolls.

    The rule of law is an anachronism now.

    Yup.  Those “Jose Crow” laws will never stand.

    • #74
  15. Leigh Inactive
    Leigh
    @Leigh

    T-Fiks: Does anybody here actually believe that there’s a dime’s worth of difference in the ultimate political implications of “legalization” vs. “path to citizenship?” Once formerly-illegal immigrants are legal residents, the pressure to live up to “who we are” and allow them to become part of that grand panorama that is America will stigmatize anyone who tries to keep them off the voting rolls.

    Well, maybe a dime’s worth. I actually can see that sticking for a good long time. But even if it did, I don’t think it’s a difference that will have much long-term impact on the future of the country.

    • #75
  16. Brian Clendinen Inactive
    Brian Clendinen
    @BrianClendinen

    jetstream:

    Hoyacon:

    LilyBart:I didn’t see where we got to vote again. It discourages me that so many are willing to support Rubio the opportunistic liar.

    Some care about a 98% American Conservative Union rating, tea party origins, and at least the possibility of beating Clinton. Hurling invectives isn’t our thing either.

    Rubio doesn’t have Tea Party origins. The Tea Party got behind Rubio in his challenge to Charlie Crist and was a factor Rubio’s senate campaign victory. After Rubio won the election he disavowed any relationship with the Tea Party.

    I like Rubio but you are right. Rubio has integrity but he is not conservative. He is Center right, more fiscally conservative than G.W. on Finances but on the social side a look a like. Other than on Common Core Rubio is actually more of a moderate than Jeb who is very conservative fiscally and on many social issues.

    • #76
  17. Brian Clendinen Inactive
    Brian Clendinen
    @BrianClendinen

    So the Cubans are winning. We might actually have to thank the corpse of Castro for giving us a one of the few Conservative Presidents we will have had in 130 years.

    • #77
  18. Freeven Member
    Freeven
    @Freeven

    Brian Clendinen:

    jetstream:

    Hoyacon:

    LilyBart:I didn’t see where we got to vote again. It discourages me that so many are willing to support Rubio the opportunistic liar.

    Some care about a 98% American Conservative Union rating, tea party origins, and at least the possibility of beating Clinton. Hurling invectives isn’t our thing either.

    Rubio doesn’t have Tea Party origins. The Tea Party got behind Rubio in his challenge to Charlie Crist and was a factor Rubio’s senate campaign victory. After Rubio won the election he disavowed any relationship with the Tea Party.

    I like Rubio but you are right. Rubio has integrity but he is not conservative.

    I’m confused. Isn’t the big knock on Rubio that he made promises on immigration while running that he immediately broke as soon as he took office? That’s not a hallmark of integrity.

    • #78
  19. R. Craigen Member
    R. Craigen
    @

    Am I in the right center-right club?  Rubio at 40%?  Who’s been baiting the RINO squishes??!

    I didn’t vote as unfortunately I’m citizenship-challenged (being a Canadian) and don’t want to skew your numbers.  But … really? Cruz and Fiorina are both clearly superior candidates to Rubio (especially my fellow Canadian Cruz :-) )…though they both would benefit from personality makeovers.  Maybe Rubio would donate his personality to one of them after he gets out of this race…

    • #79
  20. Ball Diamond Ball Member
    Ball Diamond Ball
    @BallDiamondBall

    R. Craigen:Am I in the right center-right club? Rubio at 40%? Who’s been baiting the RINO squishes??!

    I didn’t vote as unfortunately I’m citizenship-challenged (being a Canadian) and don’t want to skew your numbers. But … really? Cruz and Fiorina are both clearly superior candidates to Rubio (especially my fellow Canadian Cruz :-) )…though they both would benefit from personality makeovers. Maybe Rubio would donate his personality to one of them after he gets out of this race…

    “Center-right” is relative to how far left you think the center is.  I’ll follow up with an old diatribe I saw here years ago.

    — Found it —

    If America is indeed a center-right country, as measured against an old standard which we probably all agree is itself biased or at least out of date, then Ricochet as a group of people really is the center, and no offense, but that would mean that (say) half the people here are actually on the left.  Please keep that in mind the next time somebody gets indignant at being compared to pedigreed democrats: you all look the same to us.

    • #80
  21. Larry Koler Inactive
    Larry Koler
    @LarryKoler

    R. Craigen:Am I in the right center-right club? Rubio at 40%? Who’s been baiting the RINO squishes??!

    I didn’t vote as unfortunately I’m citizenship-challenged (being a Canadian) and don’t want to skew your numbers. But … really? Cruz and Fiorina are both clearly superior candidates to Rubio (especially my fellow Canadian Cruz :-) )…though they both would benefit from personality makeovers. Maybe Rubio would donate his personality to one of them after he gets out of this race…

    You are not citizenship-challenged at Ricochet and we still want your vote on this. You shouldn’t misunderstand what polls here mean. We need all members participating and we are grateful that you know so much about the U.S. political system and problems. We are all citizens of the world at Ricochet — this is the nation of the mind here.

    • #81
  22. Max Ledoux Coolidge
    Max Ledoux
    @Max

    Larry’s correct. The Ricochet GOP nominee polls are polls of Ricochet members, not American citizens.

    • #82
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