Turkey Votes

 

2015-09-08t200504z_1485595093_gf10000197992_rtrmadp_3_mideast-crisis-turkey-pkk.jpg_1718483346According to initial results, a huge number of voters changed their minds at the last minute and decided to vote for the AKP, despite what they said to pollsters. Either this is a huge upset, a sign of fraud, or the early results are way off. With 50 percent counted, the projection is that the AKP will have 331 seats in parliament — enough for single party rule, and to effect constitutional reforms by taking them to a referendum.

The results so far may be skewed because the earliest results are from the east, where the AKP is stronger. CHP and MHP are stronger in the West.

It’s still too early for post-mortems or to say what this means. It will be a long night for those with an interest in Turkey. But right now, it looks like this:

n_90595_1

Published in Foreign Policy
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  1. Titus Techera Member
    Titus Techera
    @TitusTechera

    They’ve been trying for 50 years. It looks like they’ll stop trying. It’s useless. I’m not even sure the Balkan countries would stand for it. EU free movement is now strained by incoming waves of people from the Middle East. Borders with Central Asia & the Middle East are impossible. Everyone knows it… As for all the other, more serious reasons, everyone knows that, too. But it’s Europe.

    • #31
  2. Carey J. Inactive
    Carey J.
    @CareyJ

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:From Michael Koplow, and I agree:

    A Quick Reaction to the AKP Victory

    November 1, 2015

    I need some time to absorb today’s election results and think about them more thoroughly, but a few brief points in the immediate aftermath.

    I certainly will not pretend to have foreseen this result. Had someone predicted to me yesterday that the AKP would replicate its 2011 parliamentary victory, I would have laughed at the idea and dismissed the person as naive or a Turkey neophyte. I know of no serious Turkey analyst, either Turkish or otherwise, who saw this coming, and the polling whiffed entirely, so both I and everyone else need to figure out where the gap is between the polling/analysis and actual results. I will, however, take credit for writing on the day after the previous election that it was not a loss for the AKP, that Erdoğan was still going to control the direction in which Turkey moved, and doubting the analysis of a liberal wave or new era in Turkish politics. At least I got something right!

    Assuming that these results are accurate – and I’ll get to why that may be a question in a minute – Erdoğan and the AKP’s strategy has been vindicated beautifully.

    This result doesn’t surprise me at all.

    “The people who cast the votes don’t decide an election, the people who count the votes do.” – Joseph Stalin

    • #32
  3. Carey J. Inactive
    Carey J.
    @CareyJ

    Titus Techera:They’ve been trying for 50 years. It looks like they’ll stop trying. It’s useless. I’m not even sure the Balkan countries would stand for it. EU free movement is now strained by incoming waves of people from the Middle East. Borders with Central Asia & the Middle East are impossible. Everyone knows it… As for all the other, more serious reasons, everyone knows that, too. But it’s Europe.

    The EU ought to kick them completely out. I’ve never really understood why the EU was ever interested in Turkish EU membership. Cheap gastarbeiter?

    • #33
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