Ricochet is the best place on the internet to discuss the issues of the day, either through commenting on posts or writing your own for our active and dynamic community in a fully moderated environment. In addition, the Ricochet Audio Network offers over 50 original podcasts with new episodes released every day.
How Serious Does it Have to Be For Americans to Get Worried?
Putin has lifted the ban on supplies of S-300 air defense missile systems to Iran, effective immediately. The S-300 is Russia’s top-of-the-range air-defense system. Anyone really think those sanctions will just snap back?
The moves come after world powers, including Russia, reached an interim deal with Iran on curbing its nuclear programme and signal that Moscow may have a head-start in the race to benefit from an eventual lifting of sanctions on Tehran. The Kremlin said Putin signed a decree lifting Russia’s own ban on the delivery of S-300 anti-missile rocket system to Iran, removing a major irritant between the two after Moscow cancelled a corresponding contract in 2010 under pressure from the West. A senior government official said separately that Russia has started supplying grain, equipment and construction materials to Iran in exchange for crude oil under a barter deal.
Sources told Reuters more than a year ago that a deal worth up to $20 billion was being discussed with Tehran and would involve Russia buying up to 500,000 barrels of Iranian oil a day in exchange for Russian equipment and goods.
The batteries must presumably be operated by Russian crews before Iranian teams could be trained in their use. In other words, if the US or Israel attempted to destroy the missiles and caused Russian casualties, you’d have a direct superpower confrontation.
I know going on about Hillary’s campaign video three days running makes me sound obsessed, but it spooked me. It seems to me that anyone who has even the vaguest sense that these events are really happening would find that video astonishing. I keep thinking: the ad was extensively tested. A very significant number of Americans must like it and think it’s appropriate. The only way I can understand that is that is to imagine they literally have not heard that any of this is happening–or somehow don’t see it as connected to the United States. How else can it be explained?
Published in General
They may not need to invade. There are already Iranian militias and advisers in Iraq now. They just need to continue to bolster their existing force structure, hunker down and stay. When there’s a power vacuum, someone will fill it.
I think MSM is driven by the profit motive more than ideology so any grave international incident that is attracting eyeballs will get them talking… Alas, this fact is also known to the enemy so they use proxies and divert attention.
If they attack Iran. An option the general public really doesn’t seem to be keen on.
I don’t know how accurate this wikipedia article is, but it indicates that S-300s are operated by 14 countries, including Ukraine – which makes me wonder how effective they are wrt stopping a land invasion.
If we recognise that Iran has an unshakable requirement for some defensive capacity, which option would you think is acceptable to everyone involved – ie something that could certainly put up some sort of fight against attacks by advanced countries, like the US or Israel (therefore acceptable to Iran) but that couldn’t be used to support a land invasion of Iraq (therefore acceptable to the US)?
(1) A major terrorist attack in the US, with 100 or more fatalities — i.e. on the scale of Oklahoma City or the Marine Barracks in Beirut.
(2) An extraordinary terrorist attack on a major US European ally, with 1,000 or more fatalities — i.e. on a scale relatively close to 9-11.
(3) Any nuclear attack.
I seriously question whether anything less would do it.
Invited in – perhaps unwisely, perhaps not – by the Iraqis themselves. And where they’re fighting ISIS, which seems like a good thing. In any case, making an Iranian invasion of Iraq supported by S-300s a moot point.
I do see your point about a power vacuum, but – right now the two real choices seem to be between an Iraqi State that’s allied with Iran and ISIS.
The American people can rely on the hashtag warning system devised by our Department of State to ascertain the severity.
Right now we are about to be #RatherConcerned
If Putin does not shape up that will escalate to #PrettyCheesedOff
And he will not like it and we will all be on notice if it moves to #EverSoCross and obviously, nobody wants to go there.
WHAT ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?!?!
You hit here on another point – one that perhaps also addresses what Claire asked.
Put simply – Americans are beyond caring what happens there because this administration flat out has no obvious and understandable concrete plans to support or oppose. We have no bloody clue what Obama is trying to do, we have no appetite for another invasion, we threw away all of the gains we made there, and in the absence of any appearance of a direct threat to the US we have no real reason to care.
We can’t even bring ourselves to care about what happens to nominal US allies there. Sure ISIS is evil and horrifying, but so was the Taliban before. It was only the Taliban’s open harboring and support of Al Qaida and Bin Laden that rallied US support for an Afghanistan invasion, so unless ISIS actually invades a NATO ally, or uses a nuke, we just have no reason to care.
Iran is awful too, but I think most Americans would rather see Iran and ISIS duke it out rather than have the US wade in again.
1) “If they attack Iran”…your assertion that American & allied pilots will be put at risk only under this condition is clearly wrong. If Iran attacks Iraq, their forces will have S-300s along, and will put pilots trying to help stop this invasion at risk.
2) Ukraine and stopping a land invasion: obviously, an air defense system can by itself neither execute a land invasion nor stop one: it is a component in a combined-arms mix.
3) “unshakeable requirement for defensive capacity”…if there is another uprising against the regime in Iran, and America (under a different President) chooses to support it, there may be a need for selective air strikes against regime forces. Would you be opposed to such support? Is your loyalty to the Iranian people, or to the current regime?
Actually Israel quite easily defeated an air defense system equipped with S-300s when they attacked and destroyed the Syrian attempt at a nuclear program a few years ago. Additionally, the S-300, while quite lethal isn’t current state of the art, especially in its export versions.
All that being said, I think that most Americans do not care much about the Middle East and Iran. Maybe they should, but when things are so dysfunctional at home, it is hard to care about what is going on other places, and things are really dysfunctional in the US. I fear for the continuation of the republic.
With respect to Iran directly: Tel Aviv probably would do it. Prague. Vienna. New York.
With respect to terrorism inspired by Islam generally speaking: A major American city.
This may have been said already but I bet Kerry/Obama were informed of this a while ago. Either it’s because Russia realized they’re spineless or because it was in exchange for something ( beyond Obamas desire to punish Israel ).
Expect crickets here in the US.
Brian Watt
Well, I’m certainly not concerned at all because Mary Harf of the State Department has put me at ease:
Putin won’t back off until Harf declares that he’s on the wrong side of history.
The S-300, also know as the SA-20, is one mean air defense missile, it has a high Pk versus air breathing targets (aircraft and cruise missiles) as well as a decent Pk versus ballistic missiles. It is guided/controlled by a very capable phased array radar. Without going into classified info, while the US may have some capability against this system, I am unsure if the Israelis do. Once these missile batteries are operational, taking out the Iranian nuclear program with a military strike becomes that much more difficult.
I wouldn’t put my bets on the F-35 as the strike platform, that program has a lot of problems, the F-22 would be a more likely player.
In answer to the question, when will Americans get worried, I think when one of the US’s major city centers goes up in a mushroom cloud. For the past six years, the Russians have been much more aggressive in there nuclear bomber flights. In addition to the Out of Area Patrols (OOAPs) you read about occurring in Europe, they have flown numerous OOAPs near Alaska, Hawaii, and even the west coast of the US. We haven’t seen this since the end of the cold war. Even during the cold war, they never flew down the west coast! We have barely heard about them in the media. Putin knows BHO is an empty suit and will push for everything he can get. I think the Iranians know the same. Americans are more concerned with Dancing with the Stars, pro sports, to whom Kim Kardashian is married and who will give them more ‘free’ stuff.
Unless someone else does something, the Iranians will get a nuclear bomb and a delivery system within the next few years. They will be able to hit Israel and Europe with an intermediate ranged missile and can use a container ship as a delivery method against the US. Unfortunately, this time I don’t think deterrence will work. The Soviets were evil, but rational in a western european sense. Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) worked with them since they didn’t want their ‘worker paradise’ vaporized. However, when you are dealing with a nation that really believes that the end of the world will work out well for them (apocalyptic millennialism ), MAD probably won’t suffice.
Our next president needs to be Ronald Reagan on steroids.
This just can’t be right.
What on earth is going on–could this really be true? How did Americans become a people who wouldn’t care what was happening in the world unless an American city was nuked?
I’m afraid it will take something on this order…
When you allow yourself to become a ward of the state you remain in an adolesence mind set. Mommy and Daddy know what there doing. Don’t you worry about a thing.
They only worry or become upset if the events of the world have the slightest chance of impacting on them.
Americans stopped worrying about overseas threats the moment Nixon created the all-volunteer force. Why worry when there’s absolutely no chance that you or your children are going to get caught up in it? In the 12 years after 9/11 approximately 1% of the nation aged 18-40 served. And Marines are the 1% of the 1%.
But a nuke on DC may upset them because it will slow down the checks or the tax refund.
Claire,
Americans are used to having a government that is fundamentally taking care of American interests. This administration has a choke hold on foreign policy and the military. They are using it to run American interests into the ground. The media has been the administration’s assistant in this escape from all responsibility.
This administration started by letting the mullahs off the hook when BHO could have been rid of the regime. Since then BHO has demonstrated his amazing capacity to ignore genocide, encourage our worst enemies and damage our friends.
Our Constitutional system gives us only one real from of relief and that is Impeachment. The Republican Party was so badly burned with Clinton it is extremely reluctant to embark on this course.
I don’t blame the American People anymore than I blame the rest of us. The country fell for this Marxist pettifogger and now we must escape from this nightmare one way or the other.
Regards,
Jim
Claire,
As you well know, there was once a world war on multiple continents in which the United States was officially neutral until an American base in Hawaii was attacked. The stretch in which Americans cared was an aberration and we are happy to revert to sticking our heads in the sand.
History (supposing there is anyone around in the future to record it) will not look kindly on us.
” To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal”
Henry Kissinger
THAT’s the message we are sending loud and clear.
For the last 20+ years we’ve been hearing a litany of phrases:
Americans are sick of it, but they have also absorbed it all too. They really do believe that Putin, Iran, ISIS, Chinese regional aggression, etc. are all our fault somehow, and we must atone and pull back. Much of this is flat out fatigue, also mixed with disgust at how these regions can’t sort out their own problems.
I want to argue with you and tell you you’re wrong. But I can’t explain that Hillary announcement. It was designed for children, not the adult citizens of a superpower.
And I’ve heard the words too many times: “Why should I care?”
They could attack shipping in the Gulf with significant protection from air attack.
Being able to defend their own air assets and bases gives them a significantly stronger offensive capability.
Stop the handwringing about our fellow Americans. We are sounding a bit snobbish on this thread.
In our federalist system we can measure our elected politicians with a ruler that has at the one end public servant and at the other end public leader.
On matters closest to our daily routine we want public servants to do our bidding – we don’t want leaders when it comes to our money, our roads, our marriages, etc. We expect to be the final arbiter of those things closest to us.
On matters further from our routine we want leaders – like on foreign affairs. The most involvement we want is to elect people we trust, with whom we feel some kinship, so that we feel confident they will make decisions for us we would likely make for ourselves, ensured by similar interests in the end result.
That’s what the “representative” in representative democracy means. We aren’t Athenians in our democratic process.
Are we supposed to be concerned that the garbage man who works nights bartending to put his kid through school can’t untangle the complexities of the Russo-Persian relationship with the precision of Ricochet’s well-schooled and experienced international affairs expatriate writer?
I find that no more troubling than if Claire doesn’t know how to make me a good martini or knows where the toothpick ends up after I throw it away. We all have our place in this world and apply importance to the things that moves our own lives forward.
Our system isn’t set up so that we all must convene a family meeting every time Putin sneezes. I have too many fun things to do, which is part of my freedom. I like that our system doesn’t depend on me keeping abreast of everything. I can’t.
That’s why Hillary’s video is appealing. She is appealing to the public servant part of politics – the part that is closest to the American daily routine.
S300 air missile defense system? I’ve got a President, a State Department, a military complex and a CIA to take care of that, and Claire to 4th estate them.
I’d rather watch the Mets – because I can.
That’s America.
We have all the trappings of a superpower, but not the heart for it. Generations that really wanted to be active in the world for any sustained length of time were the generations that fought World War II. Starting with their children, there has been a regression back.
Almost every American alive has lived in a world in which America was a major world power and we think it is our birthright and it will go on forever. Until one day it stops.
As a member of your Fourth Estate, I’ve got to tell you that the President, State Department, military complex and the CIA don’t seem to have a handle on things.
Now what.
That’s what elections are for.
To any and all – please go to Amazon and read Claire’s book Menace in Europe written 9 years ago – I just started it and am astonished – amazed at how ignorant I am about history. This current article’s topic is just a continuation of the ignorance, apathy, appeasement, political corruption and moral decline that the average person, with their constant distractions, is missing. Discussed in her book and other authors, like Joel Rosenberg, we are witnessing the the results of, as Claire stated in her book, the end of the Judeo-Christian era that kept the reins on evil – I see in every aspect of life the message we don’t need God – there is no absolute Truth – no good vs. evil – just whatever you want.
Spring Break just ended here in Panama City Beach – used to be a big party – not this time – a young girl was drugged, raped in broad daylight surrounded by hundreds of drunk kids watching, and more concerned about spilling their beer, no one stopped it, shootings, sex on the beach again in broad daylight while everyone watches (I kid you not) – the world is asleep Claire – Putin did not push GW Bush – he knew better – what just took place with these Iran talks was appalling – I know much of the world is now secular, but you cannot win a spiritual battle without spiritual armor and this is a spiritual battle – everything that is coming to pass today has been recorded by the Hebrew prophets of old –
The world is turning its back on Israel as predicted, men’s hearts have grown cold, there is no common decency – attacks on Christians and Jews as predicted – I’m not giving up – we have some good candidates lining up on the bench – but politics won’t save us – in fact like Claire predicted in her book when she wrote, in the opening pages an attack was forthcoming and it came to pass shortly after, because the writing was there for all to see, I think the writing is there for us as well – financial problems this Fall, and certainly more turmoil from terrorism etc. Get your house in order and when you can, stand up with your voice, your money, your time for what is right and decent. Claire, I hope you still have your spiral notebook, and your notes with bad handwriting – keep up the good work and God bless you!
The only way I can understand that is that is to imagine they literally have not heard that any of this is happening–or somehow don’t see it as connected to the United States. How else can it be explained?
I remember thinking that the Monica Lewinsky affair was exactly the sort of problem Americans (or maybe it’s just people?) can get interested in. Smutty, entertaining, and everyone from the garbage man/bartender to the experienced foreign affairs correspondent can imagine himself or herself into the story in any of the various roles and vigorously defend or oppose propositions like “If I Were Hillary, I’d Leave Him” and “Chelsea Deserves Better” and “Fiddling Around With A Cigar Is Sex” and “The Republicans Are Prurient Hypocrites.”
It was so much easier than trying to master the details of NAFTA, or figure out whether we were doing enough to protect ourselves from Al Qaeda—and there actually had been an explosion on American soil on that one.
So I think Tommy de Seno is right—there are issues (foreign and domestic) that are big, complicated, and demand expertise that not all of us have, or have time to acquire. Generally speaking, we probably give the President the benefit of the doubt when it comes to foreign affairs on the assumption he either knows what he or she needs to know, or has people around him who do. This was true in 2004 (I remember thinking: Bush must know something I don’t...) and it’s true today.
Having said that, I do think Hilary’s ad was, even by that low standard, disturbingly “lite.”
I read Claire’s book too! Came across it in the library by chance last week and enjoyed it very much!