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We Had a Bit of Geopolitical Instability Last Night
I woke up to the unsurprising news that the moment the Houthi militias got near the port of Aden, Obama authorized the Saudis to take matters into their own hands:
9.45am (Yemen time) Washington: US President Barack Obama has authorised US logistical, intelligence support for GCC countries in Al Hazm Storm military operation launched in Yemen, according to the White House. Ten countries, including five GCC countries, have launched air strikes against the Houthi rebels.
This key phrase has been oddly lacking in most reporting until this point, but you’ll see it everywhere now:
(Universal time) Yemen is located on Bab el-Mandeb, the fourth-biggest shipping chokepoint in the world by volume, through which 3.8 million barrels a day of oil and petroleum passed in 2013, according to the EIA. Its closure may keep tankers from the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal and the SUMED Pipeline, diverting them around the southern tip of Africa, adding to transit time and cost, the EIA said on its website.
One reason to join Ricochet is that it comes with stock tips you can use, if you read between the lines. (I’ll just put it out for you: The words “near Aden” mean “Brent Crude’s going up.” I sadly don’t have the money to translate thinking about the things you can’t mess with into stock market forecasting, but you can’t mess with chokepoints on the SLOC. War will break out. Brent Crude will rise. How much? Don’t know, but if I’d had the money, I’d have taken my own advice. Alas, I still need to ask you to join Ricochet.)
11:49am (Yemen time) Egypt announces its political and military support for the steps taken by the coalition in support of the legitimate government in Yemen. A statement from the Egyptian Foreign Ministry says that Egypt’s support for this move comes in response to the coalition’s request, emanating from its historical responsibilities towards Arab national security and the security of the Arab Gulf region. The statement also adds that Egypt followed up with great concern over the last weeks the severe deterioration in the political and security situation in the brotherly Yemen, and what has been witnessed of attacks on the legitimate institutions and the spread of violence and terrorism, a matter which Egypt announced its full rejection of, and called for the full implementation of the outputs of the National Dialogue and respect for its legitimacy. The statement explains that the Egyptian government is currently conducting coordination with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council for Arab States, on participation’s arrangements by Egyptian air and naval forces, and even a ground force, if necessary, in the framework of the alliance, in order to defend the security and stability of Yemen, preserve its territorial integrity and the maintenance of security of Arab countries.
PressTV is alarmed (sounds like they’re wondering if they’ve overplayed their hand). So much so that they’ve made a rare typo:
Obama’s created the appearance that he’s willing to cut a deal with Iran and do absolutely nothing to stop Soleimani. Maybe that’s every bit as feckless as it sounds. Maybe there’s strategic brilliance to it. Maybe he’s been figuring, “Let the Saudis do the dirty work when Iran gets overconfident and overplays its hand. Syria’s one thing, the Bab el-Mandeb’s another. That will wake them up.”
Update: Now everyone is looking to China to see what’s going to happen:
11:58 (Yemen time) China’s foreign ministry says it is deeply concerned about the worsening situation in Yemen. Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said that China urges all parties to act in accordance with United Nations Security Council resolutions on Yemen, and to resolve the dispute through dialogue. Hua told a news conference that China hopes all parties involved will “quickly resolve the dispute through political dialogue, solve the current crisis and restore domestic stability and normality to Yemen at an early date.” She said that all Chinese people and institutions in Yemen were safe, adding that the foreign ministry and the Chinese embassy in Yemen had warned its citizens not to visit Yemen.
I’m deeply concerned about the worsening situation too. Especially if people figure, “now China’s got a problem.” But it looks to me as if oil is heading for its biggest six-day gain since 2009–as is gold and the yen.
Film at 11.
Published in General
I don’t have anything like enough basic intuition about the China and SE Asia side to say what’s wrong with the analysis. I was wondering this morning: what if the US does not divert naval forces to the Gulf? At what point would the Saudis start to wonder whether they could buy a bit of help from the ROCN? I don’t see that happening tomorrow, but I’d be curious to know whether anyone thinks that could happen. What do we know for sure China has too much of? Young men. Cheap PLA labor+Saudi money? I’d be thinking of that, if I were trying to envision all the ways this could go wrong.
Claire,
This is ancient history and irrelevant. No more Soviet Union. Sisi is not Nassar. Iran didn’t exist as a Jihadist State but as an American ally. Sisi has been fighting a hot war already against the Brotherhood. I suggest you think about the costs of continued inaction as the situation deteriorates. There was nothing as strategic as the Gulf of Aden in Vietnam. Vietnam was 7,000 miles away from the US. I think maybe the Egyptians and Saudis ought to think about the cost of inaction to themselves.
There has never been a military action in the history of the world where a lot couldn’t go wrong. There is nothing casual about it.
Regards,
Jim
I doubt it, because the military is the constant in Egypt.
No, but he’s “an Egyptian military leader.”
I’m sure they’re thinking about it–I don’t think today’s news was the product of a sudden whim. I’m just very doubtful that they’ll be successful. This doesn’t mean I would be against their success. Obviously not. You don’t have to convince me that it would be great if they could stabilize the situation.
Business Insider in Australia lists the 11 most powerful militaries in the world. Bab el Mandeb is a big deal for a lot of countries’ vital interests – not just China’s or the US’s or Russia’s.
Claire,
There is much too much talk about the air strikes. The ground forces that the Saudi coalition is sending it what it is all about. Make no mistake. If the Saudi ground forces coordinate the air strikes with ground movement and, as is likely, will not be restricted by our rules of engagement given they are fighting a Jihadist terror army, they can rip the Houthi rebels to shreads. I am looking for the Egyptians because they have plenty of recent experience in the Sinai killing Jihadists.
Yemen is a direct threat to Saudi & Egyptian sovereignty. They are the regional powers of the Red Sea. Iran can shut it’s mouth as they have fomented this and have no legitimate purpose here. If Iran wants war they can have it right now! They will be facing 4 regional powers. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and that funny little country with the white and blue flag. You know the one with the six pointed star on it.
I think John McCain ought to climb into an eagle and shoot up a few Houthi. The man should never have gone into politics it’s just too boring for him.
Regards,
Jim
Yeah, if the Iranians have a puppet controlling access to the Red Sea and Suez, and control of the straight of Hormuz, a lot of people are going to be nervous.
Oh, please don’t misunderstand me: of course replacing Obama would not fix anything he has already broken. This would be a start, I suppose, but all firing Obama would accomplish is stop him from making everything worse.
That said, the aftermath of Obama’s best efforts would confound a Bismark.
It appears to me that a certain segment of the voters seemed to have the notion America’s active engagement with the world is optional, that everything we were doing was unnecessary and that nothing bad could happen to us if we just opted out. So they voted for a holiday from history by electing Obama. As you alluded, it is not Obama’s fault that he is President.
Kinda validates George Kennan’s opinion that democracies aren’t the smartest animals on the planet.
That said, the aftermath of Obama’s best efforts would confound a Bismark.
Claire: It was probably a good thing that you didn’t have a bunch of $$ to spend on Brent Crude options. I don’t know if the unrest in Yemen was already factored into the price, or if the markets just don’t see it as much of a threat, but there’s been very little movement. Closing prices have been:
$56.07 today (3-27-15)
$59.19 on 3-26
$56.48 on 3-25
$55.11 on 3-24
$55.92 on 3-23
There was a small spike on 3-26, but I don’t know if it was caused by the situation in Yemen or other factors.