Whoa, Look at the Euro!

 

shutterstock_106463024For those of you thinking a life in Paris is glamorous, let me explain how I spent my typical glamorous morning: carefully going over the gas, rent, electricity, and grocery bills.

For those of you wondering, “How do I get to be an expert political analyst?” Well, that morning is kind of key. I’m paid in dollars, but I pay my bills in Euros. So “the falling Euro” is anything not an abstraction to me. If it really reaches parity with the dollar by the end of the year, as some predict, then I somehow managed, though the weirdest luck in the world, to move to a city I can afford to live in — this as opposed to Istanbul, which was too expensive for me — and my life gets a lot easier (by sheer dumb luck, as it happens, but I’ll say I predicted it, anyway. That’s how you get to be an expert analyst).

But I’ll be happy enough with being “a good enough analyst.” Things like European deflation, Syriza’s victory in Greece, consumer price indices in France, and Greek debt restructuring are very interesting to me. Enough so that I might bother to really care about the details — because it’s personal — and then, with a bit of marketing, I’ll be an informed expert.

The short term for me is that a fall in the Euro is good–for me. Long term? I want stability and prosperity in Europe, of course. Lots of details in between, but “paying my bills” is really why I’m looking at articles like this:

Here’s How to Play an Improving Europe, Falling Euro

And thinking, “Yes, I’d like to know!”

Pretty much what I want. An improving Europe, a falling Euro. I’m someone who’s trying to pay her bills, not the WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund, but I figure — whoever they are — they’re also trying to pay their bills, and thus looking carefully at what’s happening in Europe.

The WisdomTree Europe Hedged Equity Fund HEDJ +0.85% has collected $2.2 billion in new investor money so far this year, the most of all 1,651 ETFs. Of that, a stunning $1.3 billion in new assets has poured in since the European Central Bank announced its massive bond-buying program Thursday. That figure amounts to 17% of the fund’s total assets under management.

Of course, they’re betting, as we all are, but some bets are more informed than others, and peoples’ bets tend to get better when self-interest is involved. So what I want to know is how to figure out what’s beyond all the nonsense self-promotion over there at “WisdomTree,” and what the wisdom part of it really is. I’m not inclined to say, “none at all,” because they too have a huge interest in getting this right, so I doubt they’re just totally guessing.

But I’m not massively impressed by the explanation they’re offering, which is that they have an insight called “Smart Beta.” Come on, Wisdom Tree. Assume I’m a Smart Alpha. But I congratulate the Smart Alphas in your marketing department who knew your customers well enough to think, “Smart Beta might sound good to people, as opposed to totally insulting, so let’s market-test that slogan.” I myself would have said, “Don’t even bother testing ‘Smart Beta,’ it’s ridiculous.” I would have been wrong. So clearly, yes, their Smart Alphas are smarter than me about marketing, and thus maybe they know more than me about lots of things.

If I could sit down with the folks at Wisdom Tree, I’d say, “Look, Smart Alpha to Smart Alpha: How are you really making this call? I know you’ve got reports you’re not sharing with people over there but — if they’ve got good arguments in them — I may use them to decide whether to pay some bills now, or wait a few more days and accept the late fees on the bills.”

Of course, I understand that it’s not in their interest to share those arguments with me, because then no one would have to pay them to think this through. It’s in their interest to pretend this is all totally incomprehensible. But I doubt it is. Bet we can figure it out.

What do you think they’re thinking? We’re all Smart Alphas here. My instinct says, “Yes, they’re right,” but my instinct would have been “You can’t advertise how smart you are with the slogan ‘Smart Beta,'” so my instincts are fallible. Hence “I’d like to know more.” If I figure it out just right, I can make money grow on a tree–or at least figure out whether it might be worth it to stall on paying a few bills.

Your thoughts? What’s the Euro going to do and why? What’s the best way to hedge this bet?

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There are 33 comments.

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  1. user_235504 Inactive
    user_235504
    @GabyCharing

    Claire Berlinski

    What do you make of Varoufakis?

    I think he looks like a thug. But other people tell me he’s cool.

    • #31
  2. user_645 Member
    user_645
    @Claire

    Gaby Charing:

    Claire Berlinski

    What do you make of Varoufakis?

    I think he looks like a thug. But other people tell me he’s cool.

    Thug/cool isn’t quite the distinction you’d need to make here. It’s “whose thug.” And I reckon that like most thugs, he’ll succeed in this shakedown–whoever offers him the most money will win. Mind you, we’ve got some tricky coalition politics going on. He’s got to actually deliver the goods to those voters, soon.

    • #32
  3. Marion Evans Inactive
    Marion Evans
    @MarionEvans

    Gaby Charing:

    Claire Berlinski

    What do you make of Varoufakis?

    I think he looks like a thug. But other people tell me he’s cool.

    Left-wingers always seem cool until they steal your money and ship you to Siberia.

    • #33
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