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Announcing Ricochet’s 2014 Midterm Elections Pool!
We’re a week away from Election Day and that means that it’s time to put yourself on the line with midterm predictions. For this year’s elections, we invite you to leave your comments predicting (A) how many seats Republicans will end up with in the Senate and (B) which specific states the GOP will win (and possibly lose, if you’re feeling bearish about the likes of Georgia, Kansas, or Kentucky). Whoever comes closest will be the recipient of a brand new Ricochet tote bag (or, if you’ve already received a tote bag as part of your Reagan membership, a gift of comparable value).
Feel free to leave House and gubernatorial predictions as well, but the Senate races will be the sole standard for winning the contest. And, Ricochet contributors, we want to hear from you too — but no swag for you. We’ve heard the stories about John Yoo selling Ricochet coffee mugs out a van in Oakland. Leave your predictions below.
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GOP +9: Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia
Shaheen will squeak by. North Carolina is too close to call, so I’m hedging my bet there.
GOP will win Georgia outright, but Louisiana will go to a runoff, which the GOP will win.
Greg Abbot will beat Wendy Davis by double digits.
Scott Walker will hang on by less than 1%.
GOP picks up probably no more than 10-15 seats in the House. Gerrymandering means the balance of power is probably going to stay where it is for a while.
On election night, a surprise win in NH will prime the faithful for a big celebration. The GOP will also pick up SD, WV, AK, AR. A loss in KS will be the first indication that things are about to go horribly wrong. They will hold KY. Of CO, IA, and NC, two will be GOP losses, and one will be decided by less than 1,000 votes, triggering a recount. GA and LA will be headed for run-offs. If I’ve done the math right, Wednesday morning the Senate will be 49D – 48R.
The recount will be played with the “Keep counting until the Democrat wins, then stop” rule in effect.
GOP will win in GA and lose in LA. The final outcome: 51D – 49R.
This is the most painful scenario I can imagine, which, I believe, makes it the most likely.
I’ll second this. But EJ came up with it first, so, as the lawyers say “first in time…so he wins.”
LOL, yeah I think so too.
If you’re under court order to Gerrymand majority-minority districts I don’t know how you don’t end up Gerrymandering them all…
Republicans hold all their current seats (Georgia after a runoff) and win West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, Arkansas, Louisiana (after a runoff), Alaska, Iowa, Colorado, and North Carolina. R+9
I’m going out on a limb to announce the end of Charlie Crist’s political career. Scott by 1.5 %.
Woo hoo! I like it!
GOP Catches the Wave.
AK, AR, CO, GA, IA, KS, KY, LA, NH, NC All break the right way.
114th Congress Senate: GOP 55 Dem 45, House GOP 241 DEM 194
Integrity suggests I should wager for:
A) None of the above.
B) None of the above.
After all, it’s who I’m voting for.
You know, the Democrats are likely to demand the GOP share their House pick-ups. You know. The Republicans give the Dems half of their gains . . . because fairness.
Seawriter
Two years ago I predicted the R’s would take the Senate as well, so consider the source.
If you had Romney in a landslide you might not want to play…
I’m only slightly less pessimistic than EJ – I predict the GOP only wins a net 6 seats to barely take control of the senate. The Obama administration’s shenanigans and general Dem vote fraud will keep the Republicans from winning any more seats.
Just today the FBI announced they are investigating the GOP senate candidate in SD for selling VISAs when he was the governor. The investigation has been going on for over a year – why the announcement now? The FBI isn’t saying. This race has been tightening in recent weeks and now looks like a toss up.
It’s amazing what you can accomplish when you have zero regard for the law or the constitution and the media refuses to hold you accountable.
My regard for the American voter is at an all time low. I sincerely hope I am wrong.
I’ve been in some losing campaigns before (both political and career), and I’ve honestly told a lot of people “It’s too bad we lost, but I’ll always be proud to have fought alongside you.”
But in your case I’m willing to reverse that even if we won. Hope you enjoy Australia!
A) Final Count GOP with 53 seats.
B) Wins: Montana, West Virginia, South Dakota, Arkansas, Louisiana, Alaska, Iowa, Colorado, Georgia, Kentucky.
Losses: North Carolina, New Hampshire, Michigan, Minnesota.
Final count: Republicans 54 seats, Dems and fellow travelers 46.
GOP net 8 in Senate: WV, MT, SD, AK, AR, LA, IA. CO, and a nice surprise in NH. The bad surprises will be losses in KS and NC.
GOP gets 53+ seats in Senate. NC & NH too close to call. Momentum good for Republicans in both states, but may have started too late (as usual GOP push is late in starting and risks not being able to catch up to lead Dems built up earlier).
In summary pick up Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Hold Kentucky, Kansas and Georgia.
GOP picks up a net 4 seats. They are unable to overcome the margin of fraud.
The margin of fraud is no more than 1.5% and really less than .75%. Fraud also requires the party committing the fraud to be in power.
I doubt many elections will be that close , and the few that will be are likely in places controlled by Republicans.
Seawriter
I’m just hedging my bets — either my prediction is false, and we pick up the Senate, or my prediction is true, and I win a tote bag.
So, what you are saying is don’t really want the tote bag.
Seawriter
I look at it as a kind of consolation prize.
Colorado is one ripe for fraud. However, the margin is so good for Gardner that if they managed to pull it off, it would likely trigger something big. Like a revolt.
I predict a narrow win for Hickenlooper, though, and a lot of doubt about the legitimacy of his continued tenure.
I will go for an “Honorable Mention” tote bag . . .
Joe Manchin of West Virginia will switch parties after the election if the Republicans take the Senate.
As an aside, I thought he would do it before the election to downplay any talk of him being an “opportunist”.
This guy:
…huh? …not yet?
Oh.
Never mind.
I’ve been thinking the same thing.
GOP ends up with 53 seats.
First, take as given RCP’s Safe and Likely ratings: GOP floor is 45.
Dems take IL, MI, MN, NJ, NM, OR VA going away (45).
GOP takes AK, AR, KY comfortably. (GOP 48 seats)
Gardner (CO) wins by 2-3 pts (49), Ernst (IA) wins by 1-2pts (50). LA and GA both go to runoffs where Cassidy and Perdue win handily (52).
Enough folks in KS take a deep breath and vote for Roberts, letting him eke out a narrow win: less than a point, but beyond the margin of fraud (53)
Hagan holds in NC; wins by 2pts: absentee returns this year (ftp://alt.ncsbe.gov/enrs/absentee11xx04xx2014_Stats.pdf) are spot-on to 2012’s (ftp://alt.ncsbe.gov/enrs/absentee11xx06xx2012_Stats.pdf) in terms of percentage of ballots cast from GOPers vs Dems, so I don’t see any particular GOP wave happening there.
Shaheen wins by a point in NH. Brown has quite a bit of momentum in the RCP average lately, possibly from late-focusing voters, but I don’t think it gets him over the top.
So, I think we walk away from Tuesday with 51 seats, with two more likely to add to the icing on the cake once the runoffs happen. Those are soft, though, as there’s nothing stopping Landrieu and/or Nunn from using the same tactics as Cochran (MS) in his primary runoff earlier this year…
Senate: GOP +8. That is, 53 seats.
We win CO, AK, AR, LA, MT, SD, WV, KS, and IA.
We lose NC and NH.
Regarding embattled governors in the Rust Belt: Snyder wins by 5-6 points in MI (I’d put it at 8+ points, but the Dems’ machine is really quite impressive) Walker wins by 3-4 points for the same reason.
No red states lost, although GA forced to a runoff that R wins in the end.
R’s pick up: AK, AR, LA, IA, MT, SD, WV, CO, NC, NH, NM.
So, R’s come away with 55 seats plus GA after the January runoff.