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Two simple questions.
Again, not an expert here– but I’ve been told by folks who live over seas that San Fran doesn’t really seem important. NYC and maybe DC, then “big military bases” or other obvious targets. They might recognize the landmarks from TV, but the Space Needle just doesn’t seem that impressive— it’s decoration. That’s why they didn’t hit the Statue of Liberty.
It has seemed to me that the temperature of the world has been very September 10th for the past several months. However, with ISIS on the march in Syria and Iraq, the Russians all but invading Ukraine, and China changing the groundwork in Hong Kong, it feels a little different than 2001. Of course, we had the Hainan Island incident with China back then, so perhaps similar enough.
Honestly, it feels more like 1979 to me. Unrest in the middle east, Russia acting ominously, a feckless President, this current ineptitude, this focus on domestic power, rewarding supporters & punishing enemies, this inability to respond to crises. Bonus – Jerry Brown is again governor of California.
The difference, I think, is that Jimmy Carter wanted to act, but couldn’t because of a lack of options. President Obama has the resources, but is unwilling to act because he doesn’t know how to lead/is afraid.
Overall, I’m worried that if an Administration in the midst of a general election couldn’t handle September 11th in 2012 when a mis-step could threaten re-election, how can they possibly handle a threat now, when there are no electoral stakes?
I agree with Foxfier that homegrown terrorists are the greater threat on a day-to-day basis.
Though the mere existence of this thread demonstrates the terrorizing effect of 9/11-style attacks, it seems to me that Al Qaeda/ISIS are less focused on terrorism than on strategic warfare.
If their primary goal is to scare people, then the most effective means is not to strike at epicenters of business or shopping malls but rather at random grocery stores, schools, and homes in small and mid-sized towns. That would convince people that no one is safe, ever or anywhere. Such attacks require no planning, just a bunch of hateful fanatics. I saw a story today about churches in Indiana that found graffiti in the form of Koran verses sprayed on their property. The vandalism could as easily been arson.
My point is that simple terrorism is easy to accomplish and impossible for agencies like the FBI or NSA to predict. So why aren’t we seeing that? Probably because the Al Qaeda/ISIS are focused on big targets which might significantly damage our national economy or intimidate our government rather than our people. It’s remarkable, really, how coordinated these groups are, considering that we don’t even see many individuals or splinter groups breaking away to perform those easier forms of terrorism. Evil and irrationality are not the same.
The best defense against real terrorism is alert civilians. Unfortunately, it will be up to civilians to kill the bastards because our government treats captured terrorists with absurd deference (ala Nidal Hassan).
I have decided not to live in fear of the future. I know the terrorists will do more. Guessing when or where (for me, not the CIA, FBI, or Homeland Security) will color what I do.
AUDad are flying to Boston to celebrate our 35th anniversary. I realized we will be there on the 11th. I chose to not let it shadow the trip.
What Mugwump said.
Up here in the Great White North, one of the top presumed, potential targets for terrorism is pretty nondescript:
That’s the Garden City Skyway, where the Queen Elizabeth Way crosses the Welland Canal.
Doesn’t look like much, eh? How about if we take a look at the map:
So, bring that bridge down, by blowing up and sinking a freighter right underneath it, and you stop Great Lakes shipping for a good, long while (not to mention shutting down one of the country’s busiest and most vital highway links to the United States).
(The Ambassador Bridge between Detroit and Windsor, and the Blue Water Bridge linking Michigan and Sarnia, are the other two sweet spots, as they carry the majority of all commercial traffic between the two countries.)
On Black Friday, the body count could be incredible. Especially because even in places where folks conceal carry, the sensible people who do will *not* be at the mall.
I saw an expert on Fox News say ISIS probably would want to have their own infamous day of terror to differentiate from Al Queda. Sounded plausible me. but what do I know?
(My comment here is mostly an attempt at humor …)
Of course, ladies and gentlemen, this post might well be interpreted as a case where ordinary, run-of-the-mill Americans provide foreign terrorists with actionable scenarios … all for free. No need to send those ISIL terrorists on a risky mission to scout locations for a targeted attack when, with just a little help from your Ricochet friends, ordinary Americans will pick out our most vulnerable locations and offer handy ways to completely shut down America.
Now, this convenient assistance is available for our Coolidge level members.
Just think of what you’ll get if you sign up for the Thatcher or Reagan levels!
Plus, you get a coffee mug!
Let’s face it, any place where people congregate is a target for people whose only goal is to randomly kill. Government buildings or iconic symbols of America (the Twin Towers) are especially so. My assumption is that if they do anything on 9/11, they would want it to be as big as the original 9/11 (otherwise, it can be read that they are diminished).
Read Michael Burleigh’s superb book Blood and Rage. It’s a cultural history of modern terrorism (since the Fenians and the Russian nihilist anarchists). Message: modern terrorism has been with us for a long time and it’s not going away any time soon.
Even so, I’m not going to let the remote possibility of a terrorist act keep from doing anything I would normally do on 9/11 or any other day. I think most of us are the same.
There is some information that ISIS is actually being directed by Iraqi army officers who went to Syria after the 2003 invasion and directed some of the terror attacks from there. This may explain their better organization than prior iterations along this line. They also seem to have people capable of driving tanks, etc. We may see more strategic thinking on their part if this is true.
Laced with poison…mwahahaha…
And if I were the one doing it, that’s what I’d do; part of why I thank God that I can’t understand their priorities– if they were rational in their choices, it would really hurt.
There are a lot of folks who aren’t sensible. :D
I’ve actually been out at the last three Black Fridays because my husband’s grandparents do a “family reunion” on Thanksgiving week, and That Is What The Women Do.
You can bet that I had my head on a swivel and was paying attention to what was cover and what was concealment….
Third Question: Why should I care?
Most scenarios regarding where Islamic extremists will strike next involve Boston or New York or California- places far away from me.
I’m a Fred Cole libertarian these days. Why should we (the people of Oklahoma) involve ourselves in foreign entanglements?
Don’t worry. Keep your eyes on the long term. In the long term, we will still be America and they will be either dead or lost in the desert. Sure they can cause us damage in the near term but we are 300+ million strong and have a $15 trillion economy. We can take a few hits. I hope we don’t but it could happen.
“But this long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the long run we are all dead.” – John Maynard Keynes
If they bombed those places I might have to reconsider if they are truly as evil as I thought.
Rob! This is code! RUN!
Answers.
Will we be hit on 9/11? Maybe
How? Who knows.
Why? Because I get the feeling that these folks are not all that organized. They don’t work together much. They are more a warrior culture and not a soldier culture. This means that individual and small groups of warriors can do their own thing without much guidance from above. So a small group may hit the largest target they can when they can but from a strategic point of view it might not make much sense. Thus they are hard to predict.
Some things and some spirits are eternal. Keynes was a know-nothing.
9/11 would be an auspicious time to for the Jihadists to send a message to Americans. That said, regarding the question of the means: I have noticed that al Qaeda tended to use a wide varity of means against a wide variety of targets and tended to mix these up. Consequently I believe that one could only guess at the Jihadists’ next target and means of mass murder. Getting that guess correct would be dumb luck.
Lone gunman attacks would only be effective for a for a relatively short window before the tactic was rendered useless by the simple expedient of encouraging citizens to be armed in all public places that don’t have airport/courthouse level security. Pretty soon, lone gunman attacks end like this scene, where a pair of Nobel laureates (not) attempt to rob a cop bar.
Some tactics are so easily countered that while they may work once, out of sheer surprise, they’re useless as a regular form of attack. After 9-11, trying to hijack a plane became a ticket to an instant ass kicking by everyone else on the plane.
Some parts of the country would undoubtedly take longer to figure out how to counter lone gunman attacks, but as Rick said in Casablanca:
Let’s hope that the carnage could include a country club or a fairway or two so that BHO will take it serial