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Prognostications for 2014
When it comes to predictions, I have, ahem, a mixed record.
I got 2010 right very early on, arguing late in the summer of 2009 that the Tea Party Movement was a portent and that, if the Republicans even pretended to get on board, they would sweep in November, 2010—which they did, taking the House and doing better at the state and local level than they had done at any time since 1928.
Buoyed by my success on that occasion, when Mitt Romney picked Paul Ryan as the Republican vice presidential nominee, I set aside my doubts as to whether the proud father of Romneycare could successfully run against the proud father of its offspring Obamacare, and I persuaded myself that the Republicans would capitalize on the same trends that were so evident in 2010.
As some of you will remember, this time I got it wrong. I should have taken to heart the observation of that great philosopher Yogi Berra, who once remarked, “You can predict everything . . . except the future.”
With Berra’s words as a warning, I will turn to the New Year.
If you read the liberal press—and as a penance for my many sins, I do consult it—you will discover that the left-liberal flacks who make a living by posing as journalists are itching to depict Barack Obama as the comeback kid. The troubles with the Obamacare rollout will soon be behind us, they say, and more and more Americans will realize what is in it for them.
I think that they are right in a way, but not in the way they have in mind. As their old insurance gets canceled or proves, thanks to Obamacare, to be no longer available, more and more Americans really will realize what was buried in the bill for them. That is, they will realize that the designers of Obamacare had it in for them, and their anger will grow. It will not abate. Medicare Advantage has been gutted, and the elderly will be furious. Millions will have lost the insurance that they had, and they will not be pleased. Some will find the exchanges impossible to navigate. Others will find that they have to pay through the nose for coverage inferior to what they had before, and many more will discover that they cannot keep their physicians and that they no longer have access to better hospitals and clinics.
And this is just the beginning. For millions more will learn in the course of the year that the insurance formerly offered by their employers will no longer be available for them in 2015. Short of starting a war with, say, Iran, Barack Obama and the sycophants in the press who do his publicity for him will not be able to divert the attention of ordinary Americans from what he has done to them.
What this suggests is that the Republicans will have an opportunity in 2014 comparable to the one they capitalized on in 2010. Moreover, what they need to do to win and win big is a no-brainer. Almost all that they really have to do is to nationalize every single race for the House or Senate by running a version of this advertisement in every corner of this nation:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hYyMMs-WO4U
There are only two things that can go wrong. First, if they lack the requisite wit and ruthlessness— and let’s face it, when it comes to political combat, the Republicans usually do—they can drop the ball and fail to nationalize the local elections.
That is what happened in 2010 in the Senatorial contests. That year, John Boehner took a page from Newt Gingrich’s playbook and got the House candidates to issue an imitation of the Contract with America. Mitch McConnell and the Republican leadership in the Senate did nothing of the sort—and, at a time when the Republicans were vastly increasing their strength in the House and gaining control of governorships and legislatures throughout the land, they failed to take the Senate. This could easily happen again.
That is one problem. There is another. The Republican establishment is intent on reining in the Tea Party Movement.
I have been and am still an admirer of John Boehner and of Mitch McConnell. Boehner managed to take the House in 2010 by rallying his troops behind a common platform. Some of the troubles he has faced since are of his own making, but for the most part, given the serious difficulties he has faced, he has handled himself well. One can chastise McConnell for not doing what Boehner did in 2010, as I just did, but one must also admire him for one great accomplishment: He managed to unite the Republican Senators against Obamacare. That cannot have been easy. It is not often that anyone gets John McCain to do the right thing with regard to domestic matters, and John McCain was by no means the only Republican senator who was more comfortable with the opposition than with his own party. Everything good that has happened in recent years flows from what Boehner and McConnell did in 2009 and 2010.
That having been said, their decision—and that of the Republican establishment more generally—to go to war against the Tea Party in the primaries is folly of the first order. The Tea-Party impulse was the only reason why the Republicans made a dramatic comeback in 2010. It is the only reason why they have a shot at taking the senate in 2014 and the presidency in 2016. It was the Tea Party rebellion of 2009 that caused the Republicans in both houses of Congress to unite against Obamacare. Boehner and McConnell need to figure out how to exploit and discipline that impulse.
In Nebraska, for example, McConnell ought to be quietly lending support to Ben Sasse, President of Midland University, who is as sharp a mind as one is likely to find in those parts. A native of Nebraska, a graduate of Harvard, the author of a prize-winning dissertation in history at Yale, he has worked with the Boston Consulting Group, he has done a stint in the Department of Justice, and he was assistant secretary of Health and Human Services. I know him. I like him. I respect him — and I have no doubt that, as a Senator, he would do the right thing.
In Alaska, he ought to be quietly doing what he can to secure the Republican nomination for Mead Treadwell. A graduate of Yale University—where, in my days as a graduate student, I knew him well—Mead is armed with an MBA from Harvard. He worked for years in Alaska with and for Wally Hickel. After the Exxon Valdez oil spill, he took charge of spill response for the city of Cordova. For a time he was Deputy Commissioner of Alaska’s Department of Environmental Conservation, and, since 2010, he has been Lieutenant Governor of Alaska. He won election by a twenty-point margin. He is a fine, fine man. He can beat Mark Begich, and he ought to be awarded the Republican nomination.
I cannot say what will happen in November, 2014. I can only say that the Republicans have it in their power to produce a wave election. And they have it in their power as well to snatch defeat once again from the jaws of victory. In the last couple of months, Boehner and McConnell have contributed in no small way to splitting the Republican Party. Their aim should be to unite all Republicans and a great many who are outside Republican ranks behind conservative Republican candidates like Sasse and Treadwell.
In November, 2014, Boehner and McConnell both should unite the nominees of their party behind a new Contract with America.
To that end, let me suggest that the Republican establishment put immigration reform on the back burner. I am myself a softie on immigration. I glory in the diversity I find here in Silicon Valley, and I have no doubt that the astonishing prosperity evident here is rooted in that diversity. I do not believe that the illegal aliens present today in the United States will ever leave. I believe that we need to accommodate them, and, in 2012, I defended what Rick Perry and the Republicans in Texas have done along those lines. But there is one thing that I am sure of—that the passage of immigration reform in 2014 will help the Democrats and do untold harm to the Republicans. In 2012, the candidates for the Republican Presidential nomination—Mitt Romney, foremost—did themselves and their party great harm by discussing illegal aliens in the way they did. I sympathize with those in the party who think that it must get past that. But 2014 is not the time, and the bill passed by the Senate in 2013 (with the support of John McCain, let me add) is a travesty—one thousand pages in length. The year 2014 is the year in which John Boehner should quietly bury it. If the Republicans take the Senate in 2014, the Republicans can come up with their own bill. And if Barack Obama is prepared to veto it, he will make their day.
Published in General
In other words, I wish you are right that people will see the damage and choose another path. But I fear that won’t happen. A very jaded way to start the new year!
” I glory in the diversity I find here in Silicon Valley, and I have no doubt that the astonishing prosperity evident here is rooted in that diversity.”
You could use a little doubt, Professor Rahe.
I heard a caller to a talk radio show say that he was laid off from his programming job in Atlanta and replaced with an H-1B worker at 2/3 of what he was being paid. So maybe we’re getting somewhere else’s best and brightest, but our best and brightest are being culled.
American business colludes with regulators to skirt laws which are supposed to prevent such a scenario as noted above. But it is just situations such as this crony capitalism that Boehner and McConnell are warring with conservatives to protect.
I predict that when the Republicans in the House and Senate support immigration reform, many folks like me will stay home on election day. If I lived in Cincinnati, I would vote for the Speaker’s Democrat opponent.
On immigration it is important to note that this issue is seen as a marker of respect for and interest in the Latino community. I see a fair bit of Spanish TV and news and it’s the thing that gets covered the most. It appears that immigration is felt “our” issue by Latinos, regardless of the detasils of any particular policy proposal. So it has to be addressed carefully
Glad, Ricochetti, that you’re calling the otherwise admirable Rahe on his use of ceremonial invocation of the immigration happy talk. To his credit I believe he doesn’t believe that muck: it’s just an incantation reflexively spoken to keep away the evil spirits that curse one with “Racist”, lest one sicken and so die. It’s what people say to get permission to discuss immigrants *at all*.The following cannot be said often enough: There is NO repeat NO lack of technicians scientist and programmers in the United States: the visa programs are FRAUD.
Just look at the trouble our own Joseph Eagar is having, trying to find programming work. [and also look at all the help he is getting from us-awesome!].
Joe, I believe there is a good chance of that happening without immigration reform.
Another fallacy is that the 2012 Presidential Field hurt themselves in that they supposedly spoke too harshly about illegals. They probably would have picked up more votes had they been much harsher. Democrats like Luis Gutierrez come straight out with their cheerleading for illegals (Gutierrez, aka Paul Ryan’s BFF, goes much further and unashamedly flirts with “race replacement” rhetoric).
Enoch Powell was a snooty classics scholar who nevertheless became the favorite politician of England’s working classes, simply because he vehemently and unreservedly took their side in the immigration debate in Britain. There is little reason Romney and Paul Ryan could not have done the same. Instead, they yammered on and on about the “job creators.” A year later, Paul Ryan says openly that he supports amnesty so that Wisconsin dairy farmers won’t have to pay higher wages.
#17 wmartin
Let me back you up on the H-1B visa topic with a vivid anecdote.
Circa 2009-2010, when I was still living/working in Tokyo, I was a team lead for a major software implementation project at a Property/Casualty insurer (the Japan operations of a multinational). The software in question was a “package” system for Claims Management (in this case, a module for automotive insurance policy claims).
Part of our project group was based on-site at the client’s offices in Tokyo, part of the group at a facility located in Bangalore, and part of the group at a “global center of excellence” (for this particular software package) located in Palo Alto.
The Bangalore guys typically aspired to get working stints at the Palo Alto location, and indeed quite a few would find themselves seconded there periodically. But it was common knowledge that the (American) management in PA treated these India transferees like galleon slaves. Moreover, these managers were specifically verbal to the Indians about the whip-hand they held over them in terms of visa control.
This didn’t do wonders for the quality of the software work we took delivery on in Tokyo…
Dr. Rahe,
The issue isn’t amnesty per se. The issue is granting amnesty without first securing the border and demonstrating for a satisfactory period of time that we have controlled immigration.
If we had those things, most conservatives would have no issue with some form of legalization for those already here.
As for McConnell, he has been in DC for 30+ years and must be put out to pasture. He has done nothing to advance the cause of limited government in the Senate, and he is a poor advocate for those ideas. Like Lee in Utah and Cruz in Texas, Kentucky is a state where conservatives can afford to go with a superior alternative like Matt Bevin.
Not to mention, no party leader in Congress has ever been primaried. A succesful primary challenge of McConnell would send a message to the GOP DC ruling class that conservatives cannot be taken for granted.
As for those Hispanics, they do work that Americans are too lazy to do. Here in Silicon Valley, a contractor recently told me, more than 80% of the folks working on construction projects are illegals.
I’m not sure “too lazy” or “unwilling” are case. In the early 2000’s, I was a small independent contractor in construction and furniture making. But I had several friends who were General Contractors. At the height of the boom here in NC, even laborers were being paid about $12 an hour.
As things began to slide, that wage went down to about $10. Then they told me stories of illegals coming to construction sites saying something like “Hey, I’ll do it for $8…”
So, much of this has not been theun willingness of Americans to do construction, landscaping, et. al., but rather the willingness of illegals to undercut all other comers. Their ability to do so to almost any level was often due to large numbers of young, single males renting places, such that cost of living was enormously reduced. It was not uncommon to see 8 or 10 cars outside a small house or trailer.
No, but, under the current law, they have trouble getting work visas. As for those Hispanics, they do work that Americans are too lazy to do. Here in Silicon Valley, a contractor recently told me, more than 80% of the folks working on construction projects are illegals.
You mean “too law-abiding to do.”
Hard to honestly call folks lazy for not committing fraud or taking a third less than the guy who is.
Strangely enough, the Chinese do fine in those same “government schools.” According to Charles Murray, and Jason Richwine’s Harvard PhD thesis, the average Mexican illegal has an IQ of only 89.
How many schools do “English as a second language” teaching for Chinese the way it was inflicted on some of our ranch hands– by teaching them exclusively in bad Spanish? Juan was definitely not stupid, but he was unable to effectively communicate in either language. Once you could get across what the job was, he was the best hand they’ve had.
He had an even worse version of what smart kids get in public school– he was stuck with the just-dragged-over illegals, and kept from getting enough language skills to teach himself.
To continue #53 a bit, the more entrepreneurial among the illegals began to form companies and became more established, still hiring illegals. The last I looked, Hispanic-owned businesses play a large role (and in some cases dominate) framing, drywall, painting, roofing and landscaping. Many of the workers in the other trades (finish work, electrical and plumbing) are Hispanic, but the companies themselves remain mostly Anglo (but I haven’t been looking at the trends for a while, so I’m not sure I remain accurate).
As for those Hispanics, they do work that Americans are too lazy to do. Here in Silicon Valley, a contractor recently told me, more than 80% of the folks working on construction projects are illegals.
…At the height of the boom here in NC, even laborers were being paid about $12 an hour.
As things began to slide, that wage went down to about $10. Then they told me stories of illegals coming to construction sites saying something like “Hey, I’ll do it for $8…”
So, much of this has not been theun willingness of Americans to do construction, landscaping, et. al., but rather the willingness of illegals to undercut all other comers. …
Thank you for elaborating. This is precisely my point in #51. I am surprised that a brilliant man like Dr. Rahe would accept Californians’ “jobs Americans won’t do” argument uncritically.
I don’t know about all places, but in northern Washington this is the advantages illegals have:
It’s so bad that, for example, the food bank I donate to is now requiring gov’t issued photo ID and limiting each one to once a month– and there’s still people coming in with multiple identities.
A family friend is finally turning against illegals when she helped at multiple foodbanks– and recognized several people getting a family’s week’s worth of groceries in multiple towns.
…………….. I have explained here over and over how that ugly legislation, solely because of Gov. Romney’s leadership, saved Massachusetts from a much worse single-payer monstrosity. Governing sometimes requires making tough choices of the lessbad over the verybad when your power base is too limited to effect the good (veto-proof 85% far left Dem legislature). All too often we retrospectively kid ourselves into thinking that we had a different situation than we actually did at the time.
Thanks to Romneycare, which Romney for a time boosted as an example for the rest of the states to follow, Massachusetts in 2014 had the highest per capita medical expenses in the nation.
If one wants to win the war, it is often better to make one’s argument and lose a battle than it is to gin up a compromise that violates fundamental principles and makes it impossible to make a principled argument thereafter. ·3 hours ago
The sure result, had he stayed out of it, would have been Massachusetts single payer. He vetoed the bad elements of the bill, and was overridden. He even tried to avoid a state individual mandate.
Unfortunately Duane, a lot of us have the long-standing experience of having seen the results of “incremental” progress with “center-right” politicians who, shortly after gaining office, forget where they are from, assume that they are really from D.C., and then vote that way, while mouthing platitudes.
Gingrich is a conservative. Rick Santorum is a conservative. Sarah Palin is a conservative. Not center-right but, rather, conservative. Conservative thinkers thinking conservative thoughts.
I’d really like that to happen again. I could even get enthusiastic about such an occurrence. I might even send money to such a campaign, but directly, not through the Republican Party. ·6 hours ago
Donald, please list for us the revolutionary accomplishments of Ronald Reagan. How many programs did he kill? How many Cabinet departments did he eliminate? How much did spending go down?
Unless you strongly control all the levers of government (Obama in calendar 2010 was the only time since LBJ, and neither of them got what they really wanted either), by definition you need to work incrementally.
First, for the most part, the illegals are here because they are willing to do work that all too few Americans are willing to shoulder. Here in Silicon Valley, 80% of construction workers are illegals…
·15 hours ago
Fourth, their children are growing up here. Many of them have citizenship by dint of birth.
This is an open question, constitutionally speaking. In 1898, the Court ruled that the child of parents with permanent legal residence are citizens. They have never ruled with regard to people here on a tourist visa or no visa at all, etc.
And it might be that Fuller, joined by Harlan had the better of the argument in 1898. Does “subject to the jurisdiction thereof” in the 14th Amendment mean “subject to any jurisdiction” or “subject to the complete jurisdiction.” I tend to think that the latter makes more sense. Soil, or location at birth, is the English common law rule, but America followed different principles–new citizens are created by mutual consent of current citizens and those who wish to join us.
It is no coincidence that Harlan joined this dissent two years after his famous dissent in Plessy.
Soil, or location at birth, is the English common law rule, but America followed different principles–new citizens are created by mutual consent of current citizens and those who wish to join us.
Wasn’t there some old stuff about where being born elsewhere while not subject to the authority of the place– say, while an ambassador– didn’t make the kid a citizen of the other place?
Soil, or location at birth, is the English common law rule, but America followed different principles–new citizens are created by mutual consent of current citizens and those who wish to join us.
Wasn’t there some old stuff about where being born elsewhere while not subject to the authority of the place– say, while an ambassador– didn’tmake the kid a citizen of the other place? ·0 minutes ago
Consulates are considered foreign soil. Everyone agrees that the children of diplomats are exempt from soil. But there’s a good argument that the 14th Amendment’s language was designed to be broader. Similarly, some of the major 18th C writers on the law of nature and the law of nations suggest that “natural born” means born of parents of a particular nationality–that’s more natural than soil as an indicator of nationality.
I wish the Republicans would listen to my advice : ) Start impeachment proceedings, even with a bare chance of success. The Left would have little time left to bring up immigration, minimum wage (or any other squirrel) and thus we would not have to ‘react’ but lead the conversation. Remember. We do not care if any of that actually gets ‘done’ right now and would put the spot light on Obamacare, etc.
I would be happy if they just enforced the border.
Same here. That’s the elephant in the room that both political parties are ignoring. The border now is more violent now than it has been in generations; you might have to go as far back as the 1910s, when my maternal grandparents were born and raised in Laredo. I was nearly caught up in a shooting in my parents’ neighborhood in that very city on Thanksgiving night eight years ago; that’s why I now have a concealed handgun license.
Here’s the real kicker: most victims of border violence are Hispanic, and it’s especially bad for those living in isolated, rural areas. But few in our nation’s capital give a damn.
Indian engineering grads and Chinese PhDs are not coming in droves across the border and ducking the cops in San Diego. ·15 hours ago
Edited 1 hour ago
No, but, under the current law, they have trouble getting work visas. As for those Hispanics, they do work that Americans are too lazy to do. Here in Silicon Valley, a contractor recently told me, more than 80% of the folks working on construction projects are illegals.
I love your optimism and respect your wherewithal to make these predictions, but I stand by mine that we wake up to Speaker Pelosi in November. ·14 hours ago
Given my record, your guess may be as good as mine. Alas!
I think the opposite. I think the revenue sources for hospitals are going to be thrown into massive upheaval, and it will look different for each state, since each state has such a mix of payers and different demographics.
I think you won’t see the effects until mid calendar year, as payments start unfolding. You will see cash payments go up (a small slice of the revenue pie), you will see private insurance payments go up (since most of them are part of BarryCare anyway), and Medicare/Medicaid A/B/C/D go down. Since Medicare/Medicaid makes up 40% or more of the total pie, it’s going to be a disaster for budgeting purposes.
The state boards that approve hospital budgets will have their hands full. ·7 hours ago
For what it is worth, I agree.
Government schools are the problem. Put those same children in parochial or private schools with even a tad of discipline and they do well, many are more than qualified for post-secondary education. The success of Jaime Escalante is proof of that, and of note, he had to run a successful extra-curricular program to accomplish what he wanted to do. The “master teacher” thought those Hispanic children incapable of learning but allowed Escalante to create and lead the math club anyway. ·3 hours ago
Amen.
Today, there are too many over-organized, self-serving power centers raising money and aggrandizing their own positions,all claiming the mantle of the TEA Party, stating that they alone are the true leaders,and setting litmus tests for controlling the political structures i n accordance with their personal preferences and positions.
The Senate Conservatives Fund, Heritage Action, Club For Growth, and Freedom Works are all using TEA Party words to raise cash for their own organizations, and spending money opposing re-election campaigns of clearly center-right politicians, . . . , instead of using the experience we have available and looking for strategic- necessarily incremental- progress. ·2 hours ago
True, alas.
I still disagree with Prof. Rahe in his characterization of RomneyCare. I have explained here over and over how that ugly legislation, solely because of Gov. Romney’s leadership, saved Massachusetts from a much worse single-payer monstrosity. Governing sometimes requires making tough choices of the lessbad over the verybad when your power base is too limited to effect the good (veto-proof 85% far left Dem legislature). All too often we retrospectively kid ourselves into thinking that we had a different situation than we actually did at the time. ·2 hours ago
Thanks to Romneycare, which Romney for a time boosted as an example for the rest of the states to follow, Massachusetts in 2014 had the highest per capita medical expenses in the nation.
If one wants to win the war, it is often better to make one’s argument and lose a battle than it is to gin up a compromise that violates fundamental principles and makes it impossible to make a principled argument thereafter.