Dividing Up the Also-Rans

 

Assuming a political miracle doesn’t happen, and we have just three Republicans running for president by this time next month, who will the other candidates support as they bow-out of the race? My predictions:

  • Carly Fiorina endorses either Sen. Rubio or Sen. Cruz as she exits. Probably Rubio.
  • Ben Carson endorses Rubio. I think Carson’s campaign is stinging from how Cruz had more success with evangelicals in Iowa, cutting off all hope of an endorsement.
  • Jeb Bush drops out without endorsing anyone.
  • Gov. Christie endorses Trump.
  • Huckabee endorses Trump in exchange for being named the officiant at the wedding chapel at one of Trump’s casinos.
  • Gov. Kasich endorses Rubio, but no one notices.
  • Santorum endorses Cruz. Santorum’s sweater vest, however, endorses Rubio’s Cuban heels.
  • Rand Paul endorses Cruz.
  • Gilmore turns his voter lose to follow his conscience.

Your thoughts?

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  1. JRez Inactive
    JRez
    @JRez

    Ben Carson endorses Rubio. I think Carson’s campaign is stinging from how Cruz had more success with evangelicals in Iowa, cutting off all hope of an endorsement.

    Add to that they’re apparently seething over a preemptive “Carson is out” rumor before the voting last night and there’s probably no mending this fence.

    After all the debate bluster about Senators debating but not governing, Christie can’t endorse anybody BUT Trump.  Plus, if Trump goes on to win, he’s in the best position [NJ] for Trump favorable policy quid pro quo, which Trump would never do because that’s what Washington insiders do…..

    Kasich endorses Jeb!, not realizing he’s already dropped out.

    • #1
  2. The King Prawn Inactive
    The King Prawn
    @TheKingPrawn

    It makes no sense to me ideologically for Santorum and Huckabee to endorse Trump. Politically a case can be made, but on policy and positions it makes not one lick of sense.

    • #2
  3. Tom Meyer, Ed. Contributor
    Tom Meyer, Ed.
    @tommeyer

    Kevin Creighton:

    • Gov. Christie endorses Trump.

    This is the only one that seems unlikely to me. Is there a reason you think so that I’ve missed?

    I’m also curious how Perry, Walker, and Jindal will endorse.

    • #3
  4. Stoicous Inactive
    Stoicous
    @Stoicous

    I don’t think Rand Paul will endorse Cruz, or anyone.

    He seems pretty pissed that Cruz went full Religious Right to win Iowa.

    • #4
  5. thelonious Member
    thelonious
    @thelonious

    I think you underestimate the Jeb endorsement.  He may not bring many voters but I would think his endorsement would bring in a ton of money and donors.

    • #5
  6. Austin Murrey Inactive
    Austin Murrey
    @AustinMurrey

    Perry’s already endorsed Cruz, Tom. He was campaigning with him in Iowa.

    • #6
  7. The King Prawn Inactive
    The King Prawn
    @TheKingPrawn

    thelonious:I think you underestimate the Jeb endorsement. He may not bring many voters but I would think his endorsement would bring in a ton of money and donors.

    A lot of that money has already fled to Rubio.

    • #7
  8. Drusus Inactive
    Drusus
    @Drusus

    I don’t think it’s going to be this clean or easy. I think there will be blood, and our team will damage the front-runners, like they so often do in these cases. But here’s to hoping!

    • #8
  9. ctlaw Coolidge
    ctlaw
    @ctlaw

    Kevin Creighton: Carly Fiorina endorses either Sen. Rubio or Sen. Cruz as she exits. Probably Rubio.

    This really should be a two step process. First, she needs to go all out against Trump. If that does not give her enough of a boost, then she can drop out.

    First, there is a small chance that attacking Trump might work for her.

    Second, damaging Trump might be more important to her favored candidate than is her endorsement.

    • #9
  10. John Seymour Member
    John Seymour
    @

    Kevin Creighton: Gov. Christie endorses Trump.

    I don’t see it.  I suspect either Rubio, hoping for a position in the Rubio administration, or no endorsement, vowing to support the eventual nominee once the voters have spoken.

    Kevin Creighton:

    • Huckabee endorses Trump in exchange for being named the officiant at the wedding chapel at one of Trump’s casinos.
    • Gov. Kasich endorses Rubio, but no one notices.
    • Gilmore turns his voter lose to follow his conscience.

    Funny.

    • #10
  11. Kevin Creighton Contributor
    Kevin Creighton
    @KevinCreighton

    Stoicous: I don’t think Rand Paul will endorse Cruz, or anyone.

    Cruz joined in with Paul on the Patriot Act filibuster. There’s a chance that Rand may endorse Gary Johnson instead of a GOP candidate, but I doubt it.

    ctlaw

    This really should be a two step process. First, she needs to go all out against Trump. If that does not give her enough of a boost, then she can drop out.

    First, there is a small chance that attacking Trump might work for her.

    Second, damaging Trump might be more important to her favored candidate than is her endorsement.

    Oh, I like this. I like this a lot, and she’s just the person to do it. Christie will endorse Trump because he’s the most familiar face in the crowd: They’ve done business together in Jersey, and they share the same East-Coast insider worldview. Ditto with Huckabee, because he and Trump both believe the problem is that government isn’t “fixing” the right things, versus seeing the problem as being government itself.

    • #11
  12. Mountie Coolidge
    Mountie
    @Mountie

    Paul stays in until the bitter end, just as his father did before him. He’s evangelizing a position just as his father before him. Fiorina, Kaisch, and Christie probably go down the Rubio route. Kaisch and Cristie will hold their nose but will do it as faithful “members of the establishment” since Rubio is now assuming this mantel.

    On a separate note, we watched Rubio’s “victory” speech last night, I’m old enough to remember JFK and how motivating he was on the stump. My son and I agreed that if he is JFK then that makes Hillary Nixon. I can’t wait to hear her say “I am not a crook”.

    • #12
  13. Marley's Ghost Coolidge
    Marley's Ghost
    @MarleysGhost

    Christie won’t endorse anyone until a nominee

    Rand Paul won’t EVER endorse Cruz.  lol

    I agree, I don’t think Jeb endorses anyone and will likely not be able to bring himself to endorse Rubio if he is the candidate.

    • #13
  14. RyanFalcone Member
    RyanFalcone
    @RyanFalcone

    Carson doesn’t seem like the normal politician who seethes with grudges and is always manipulating the game in his favor. I think he goes for Cruz. Their respective followings seem to be the most similar and many like myself have gone back and forth between them many times. I’d be shocked if any go public for Trump after this. It would be professional suicide unless they have ambition to be a reality TV star.

    • #14
  15. Jeffery Shepherd Inactive
    Jeffery Shepherd
    @JefferyShepherd

    I think this is mostly right but I don’t see Rand endorsing anyone.  I think Christie stands pat.  I would like Jeb! to man up but don’t see it happening.  Naturally he’d endorse Rubio if he did. I also think Rubio should promise Cruz the nomination of the first open seat on the supreme court when Cruz eventually concedes:)

    • #15
  16. Frank Soto Contributor
    Frank Soto
    @FrankSoto

    Kevin Creighton: Gilmore turns his voter lose to follow his conscience.

    This is unfair.  Gilmore received 12 votes in Iowa.  Proportionally, we can expect him to have the support of 1,232 people nationally.

    • #16
  17. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    There is no truth to the rumor that Mike Huckabee and Martin O’Malley are discussing starting a band to tour Holiday Inn lounges across this great land.

    • #17
  18. EJHill Podcaster
    EJHill
    @EJHill

    Kevin Creighton: Gov. Kasich endorses Rubio, but no one notices.

    That’s because he will mail in his endorsement. Did you know his father was a mailman? That should have been mentioned. Good story.

    • #18
  19. The Crooked Timber Member
    The Crooked Timber
    @

    My take on potential endorsements (should the candidate drop out, of course):

    • Not sure that Fiorina will endorse, but if she does, she endorses Cruz.
    • Carson endorses Rubio.
    • Bush offers no endoresement.
    • Christie endorses Rubio.
    • Huckabee endorses Cruz or Carson.
    • Kasich endorses Rubio.
    • Santorum endorses Cruz.
    • Paul offers no endorsement.
    • Gilmore offers no endorsement.
    • Trump endorses Cruz.
    • Cruz endorses Rubio.
    • Rubio endorses Cruz.
    • #19
  20. HeartofAmerica Inactive
    HeartofAmerica
    @HeartofAmerica
    • Carly Fiorina endorses either Sen. Rubio or Sen. Cruz as she exits. Probably Rubio.  I’m betting on Rubio because she might get something from a Rubio presidency: ticket or cabinet
    • Ben Carson endorses Rubio. I agree. According to the Carson camp, Cruz supporters told some members that Carson was quitting. He won’t forget.
    • Jeb Bush drops out without endorsing anyone. Agreed.
    • Gov. Christie endorses Trump. No, I’m thinking Christie is looking for an AG job. He’ll go Rubio.
    • Huckabee endorses Trump in exchange for being named the officiant at the wedding chapel at one of Trump’s casinos. Huck sold his soul to Trump.
    • Gov. Kasich endorses Rubio, but no one notices. Kasich becomes a mailman.
    • Santorum endorses Cruz. Santorum’s sweater vest, however, endorses Rubio’s Cuban heels.  Always the perpetual candidate, Rick starts building a campaign for 2020.
    • Rand Paul endorses Cruz. This one is tough. Not sure what Rand will do.
    • Gilmore turns his voter lose to follow his conscience. Who?
    • #20
  21. livingthehighlife Inactive
    livingthehighlife
    @livingthehighlife

    The Crooked Timber: Huckabee endorses Cruz or Carson.

    My money is on Huckabee endorsing Trump.

    The Crooked Timber: Gilmore offers no endorsement.

    If Gilmore makes an endorsement, will anyone know?

    • #21
  22. Big Green Inactive
    Big Green
    @BigGreen

    The King Prawn:It makes no sense to me ideologically for Santorum and Huckabee to endorse Trump. Politically a case can be made, but on policy and positions it makes not one lick of sense.

    C’mon…Trump is “strong with the evangelicals”…the “evangelicals love him”.  Because you know, “god is the ultimate” and “nuthin’ is better than the bible”.

    • #22
  23. EJHill Podcaster
    EJHill
    @EJHill

    Jim Gilmore just signed a deal with Netflix to make more episodes of “The Gilmore Girls.”

    • #23
  24. Big Green Inactive
    Big Green
    @BigGreen

    Generally agree with this except Fiorina will stick around for a while and likely go after Trump.  Highly unlikely that Christie endorses Trump…think he goes for Rubio.

    • #24
  25. thelonious Member
    thelonious
    @thelonious

    Their all politicians.  Because many of the candidates will be vying for cabinet positions or ambassador to somewhere important  or fun they’re going to endorse whoever has the best chance of winning.  I don’t think ideology is going to play too heavily.

    • #25
  26. Randy Weivoda Moderator
    Randy Weivoda
    @RandyWeivoda

    Brian Watt:There is no truth to the rumor that Mike Huckabee and Martin O’Malley are discussing starting a band to tour Holiday Inn lounges across this great land.

    Just curious, are there any suggested names for the merely-rumored band?  The Unlikely’s?

    • #26
  27. livingthehighlife Inactive
    livingthehighlife
    @livingthehighlife

    Randy Weivoda:

    Brian Watt:There is no truth to the rumor that Mike Huckabee and Martin O’Malley are discussing starting a band to tour Holiday Inn lounges across this great land.

    Just curious, are there any suggested names for the merely-rumored band? The Unlikely’s?

    The UnElectables.

    • #27
  28. Paul Erickson Inactive
    Paul Erickson
    @PaulErickson

    HeartofAmerica: Gov. Christie endorses Trump. No, I’m thinking Christie is looking for an AG job. He’ll go Rubio.

    Yes, exactly right.

    • #28
  29. Rodin Member
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    RyanFalcone:Carson doesn’t seem like the normal politician who seethes with grudges and is always manipulating the game in his favor. I think he goes for Cruz. Their respective followings seem to be the most similar and many like myself have gone back and forth between them many times. I’d be shocked if any go public for Trump after this. It would be professional suicide unless they have ambition to be a reality TV star.

    While I agree that Carson is someone who would transcend the normal bump and grind of political contests, I sense that he was very offended by the caucus room tactics of the Cruz campaign telling Carson’s supporters that he was “out” of the race. Although no one can touch Cruz’s “calling forth the body of Christ” evangelism, Rubio has been very clear about his own personal faith. A personal meeting between Rubio and Carson could well persuade the good doctor that Rubio is more his kind of guy.

    • #29
  30. Brian McMenomy Inactive
    Brian McMenomy
    @BrianMcMenomy

    I agree, Carly will stay on and surgically dismantle Trump (and she can get away with it, she made him back off & Trump can’t afford to be seen saying stupid things about women again).  Then she’ll be in Rubio’s cabinet or Veep.

    Huck is going to endorse his “good friend” (Trump’s words) today in Arkansas.

    Carson will go for Rubio, which will help neutralize Cruz’s advantage with evangelicals.

    Christie is a bit of a wild-card.  If he really wants us to win, he’ll go for Rubio.  I don’t think he’ll go for Trump, especially the way he & Trump have gone back & forth about Atlantic City.  Kasich will go for Rubio, but very few will care.

    Santorum and Paul will go for Cruz.

    As KP and others have noted, Jeb’s money is flowing toward Marco.  Jeb’s actual endorsement won’t mean a great deal, but if his donors flee, that’s a double benefit to Rubio.

    Ultimately, the endorsement game doesn’t win elections, persuading voters does.  It will be down to a 3-person race before too long, and then we’ll know a lot more.

    • #30
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