(My morning post on Indieconservative)
The GOP Primary Problem
Tag: GOP Primary
Clarification
In hopes of keeping my slight reputation here unsullied, I’d like to point out that my previous post suggesting we vote for Trump because of his mental derangements was entirely tongue-in-cheek. I supposed I had provided enough clues as to my intent, but perhaps not. To state plainly, there is no conceivable circumstance in which I would consider casting a vote for Donald Trump.
Republican Self-Sabotage
The latest CBS poll suggests that the Trump juggernaut continues to roll, with 35 percent of Republicans supporting him. Ted Cruz, his nearest rival, garners 18 percent. Jeb Bush, the candidate who should have been the obvious choice if conventional wisdom about money and politics were even remotely true, is dead last with 4 percent. In vain does Ted Cruz protest that Donald Trump is not a conservative. Among those who describe themselves as “very conservative,” 35 percent favor Trump versus 30 percent for Cruz, and 12 percent for Rubio.
In South Carolina, Trump is ahead among the evangelical voters Ted Cruz targeted as his savior army that would rise up to carry a true conservative to victory. According to a Fox News poll (2/18), Trump leads Cruz 31 percent to 23 percent among evangelical Christians. And while Cruz leads among those who identify as “very conservative” it’s a razor-thin edge (well within the margin of error).
As in New Hampshire, Trump leads nationally among a broad swath of voters. Not only those with just a high school diploma (47 percent), but also those with some college (33 percent), and college graduates (25 percent). He is the preference of men and women, and among all income groups including those earning more than $100,000.
The South Carolina Primary: What to Watch For
The New Hampshire primary had me eating crow with Kasich’s second place win: I bought the conventional wisdom from the polls that Rubio was going to come in second on his way to working the 3-2-1 strategy that his campaign was pursuing to the nomination.
But the post-New Hampshire spin has largely ignored Katich’s Kasich’s second place victory, since everyone was concentrated on the smashing Trump win and Rubio’s slide. As I expected Rubio’s, rebounded in the polling from his New Hampshire loss and seems to be in a strong third and possible second place in South Carolina.
I’ll bullet my three scenarios and then lay out probable spin based on placement for each candidate. I’ll be considering all February polls per RealClearPolitics. Sadly, we do not have an Emerson poll ready for South Carolina since they nailed Iowa and New Hampshire (relatively speaking).
My NH prediction. And yours?
Jason Gay’s WSJ Free For All Podcast – Discussing Trump
Jason Gay’s description of Trump is the best:
Trump reminds me of someone in a book club who has not read the book, but still comes to the club and wants to talk.
Fighting for the Soul of the Republican Party
COLUMBIA, SC — At a time and day – 8:30 am on a Saturday – when most Americans are sleeping in, the Kemp Forum on Expanding Opportunity convened in the capacious Columbia, SC convention center. Even at 8:15, it was tough to find a seat.
South Carolina’s important primary is Feb. 20, and doubtless some of the more than 1,500 attendees were attracted by the opportunity to hear from six of the Republican candidates for President. (It would have been seven, but Carly Fiorina missed her flight.) Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, John Kasich, Marco Rubio and Mike Huckabee offered their views on how to fight poverty and expand opportunity. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump declined to attend.
The absence of Cruz and Trump was significant, underlining as it does one of the two competing ideas about what the Republican Party is and should be. Senator Cruz and, to a lesser degree, Mr. Trump seem to endorse the notion that Republicans can win national elections by motivating the “missing conservatives” who stayed home in past presidential election years because the party’s nominees were moderates. This is the line doggedly pushed by talk radio, but has been pretty well debunked.
Time to Thin the GOP Herd
At last, Lindsey Graham did the right thing. After months of increasingly irrelevant undercard debates and poll numbers in the naughts, South Carolina’s littlest senator suspended his campaign. He joins far more promising ex-candidates Rick Perry, Scott Walker, and Bobby Jindal who were unable to capitalize on today’s frustrated electorate.
Reviewing the polling this weekend, it’s past time for several others to follow their lead. Trump is still leading most surveys, Cruz has surged into prominence, and then there’s the amorphous lump of everybody else. Said amorphous lump represents a powerful constituency, as it holds a third of GOP primary voters. But divided among several candidates, these voters will lose out unless several of their current choices step aside.
Let’s face facts, George Pataki: You are not going to be the GOP candidate. The same goes for Rand Paul, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum. You cast your lines, but the fish ain’t biting. It’s time for you to “spend more time with your family,” just in time for Christmas.
Kasich SuperPAC Unveils Anti-Trump Ad (Update: Kasich Releases a Second Salvo)
Ever since The Donald descended from that Trump Tower escalator, Republicans have insisted that someone has to take him out. We’ve heard this cry from movement conservatives, political consultants, the squishy “GOP establishment,” conservatarian ideologues, and the vast majority of activists who don’t support the curiously coiffed billionaire.
Worry no longer, Republicans, for your savior has arrived. John Kasich’s SuperPAC, New Day for America, has released a 45-second collection of Trump quotes that’s sure to scuttle his quixotic campaign before voters in Dubuque and Dixville Notch get the chance to weigh in. So lie back in your La-Z-Boy, sip on your skinny half-caf grande chestnut praline latte, and enjoy the demise of Donald Trump’s political career: