Abdullah ibn Abdilaziz Al Saud, the long-reigning king of Saudi Arabia, passed away this week. While some observers worried about a power struggle, the new King Salman quickly reassured his national and international friends that it will be a peaceful transition.
However, it’s hard not to notice that King Salman is 79, just 11 years younger than his deceased half-brother Abdullah. Even if he stays in charge for a few years, he is the last of the old guard and a new generation rises. Will the younger Sauds have the same priorities of international trade and regional stability?
Further down the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen is in the midst of a violent coup. President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, a nominal U.S. ally in the war on terror, just resigned due to the rebel takeover of the capital city. These Houthi upstarts are basically a Shi’ite version of the Sunni Al Qaeda. Locals celebrated Houthi military success in downtown Sana’a by waving signs reading “Death to America! Death to Israel!”
Looking to north Africa, Libya is an anarchic nightmare, in spite of/because of the Western-led effort to topple Muammar Qaddafi. Militants carrying the banners of Al Qaeda, IS and other Islamist terror groups are thick both on the well-populated coastlines and the desolate inland.
Speaking of ISIS, they control vast swathes of Syria and Iraq and are now exporting terror to western capitals. Bashar al-Assad is brutally crushing other rebellious groups in country, while in the corners of Syria, Turkey and Iraq, heavily armed Kurds dream of an independent state.
A few days ago, Israel wiped out Hezbollah leadership and high-level Iranian generals who were gathering in the Golan Heights for an apparent invasion of the “Zionist entity.” Hezbollah’s supporters are demanding a bloody response, while Hamas attempts to step up their own terror campaign. And did I mention Iran’s nuclear program is still humming along as the feckless Obama administration finds new ways to placate the apocalyptic regime?
The above parade of horribles only scratches the surface of turmoil upending the region, any element of which could spark a far wider war.
Six years in, the President might want to consider a comprehensive plan of diplomacy, defense and trade for the Middle East. Because drones outfitted with speakers blaring James Taylor songs ain’t going to cut it.
It’s time for your prediction: What do you think the Middle East will look like in five years?
Published in General
I’ll start:
A vast uniform caliphate stretching from the Pakistan-Indian boarder all the way to the Shetland Islands off the northern coast of Britain flying under a black flag. All churches converted to mosques. Blazing hellfire. The armies of the undead, taking the form of fiery skeletons riding winged dragons, locked in an alliance with the jihadis mopping up the few remaining dissidents. Weather forecast of rain and overcast.
On a happier note…
Bonus points for excellent use of imagery.
More of the same – nothing will be resolved. Â None of the factions or interests is strong enough to comprehensively win at an acceptable price, and none of the factions is weak enough to be thus defeated.
The balance of power will move slightly in favour of dictatorships and monarchies – but political Islam will continue to be the dominant opposition in most countries, for lack of any other. Â (Except in Iran.) No great options for the locals or for the West. Â Governments will mostly become more repressive rather than less.
Random predictions: ISIS will contract somewhat, and its borders will start to stabilise, Iran will become the de facto Western ally that dare not speak its name, Afghanistan will not collapse but there will be an on-ground split of authority along ethnic lines – which will destabilise Pakistan (further), There will be no official Kurdish independence but the unofficial kind will increase for those in Iraq in tandem with US bases bedding down over there, Russian influence will start showing up in surprising places (say North Africa), Yemen will drive Saudi and the Gulf closer to the West.
One bright spot: Tunisia, though that will only be relative :-(
Israel stands.
I have no idea what the other nations devolve into but Israel will continue to shine.