Were Obama’s Swing-State Numbers Inflated by Outspending Romney on Ads?
If you haven’t checked out John Sides & Co. at The Monkey Cage blog, you should . . . really interesting commentary on current politics and political science.
Sides also has a fascinating new series at the WonkBlog - Ezra Klein’s blog, but there is good information to be had in liberal bastions -- and Sides is interested in findings out what’s happening in politics, not partisan punditry.
He’s also analyzing data that few people have:
Romney’s strong fundraising and big spending suggest that he and allied groups might finally eliminate Obama’s advertising advantage. But as of the week ending October 14, that has not happened. As the graph below indicates, advertising spending on behalf of Obama continues to outpace spending on behalf of Romney. Obama and allies aired about 5,000 more television ads than Romney and allies last week. . .
This may also help to explain why Obama has retained an edge in most battleground states. . .
Indeed, it looks like Obama might have wasted a whole lot of money outspending Romney in Florida (or not?).
Sides brings this all back to the final issue:
Is any of this advertising making a difference? That is the ultimate question and one I will revisit. For the moment, however, there is one study worth noting. The consulting firm Evolving Strategies recently completed a large randomized experiment in which participants saw pro-Romney ads, pro-Obama ads, both, or neither. On the whole, the Obama ads were more effective in persuading weak partisans and undecided voters—even when the Romney ads were shown alongside. Their effect was particularly notable among women.
However, there was a potentially countervailing effect as well: these ads tend to increase the enthusiasm of Republican voters but not Democratic voters, which could translate into additional Republican turnout.
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Comments:
Aug '10
Re: Were Obama’s Swing-State Numbers Inflated by Outspending Romney on Ads?
Let them spend all they want, it won't help Obama in the privacy of the voting booth. In Southeast Pennsylvania lawn signs are sprouting like spring crocuses. The ones for local Republican pols are frequently accompanied by a Romney/Ryan one, while the signs supporting local Democrats do not seem to have any Obama/Biden company. Very telling.
People have been told for four years that opposition to Obama is the very definition of racism, so I think people are going to keep their mouths shut and vote their conscience. Hardline Democrats will have a big surprise come Election night.
Professor Rahe called it here first.
Feb '11
Re: Were Obama’s Swing-State Numbers Inflated by Outspending Romney on Ads?
Tried. Got this:
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Mar '12
Re: Were Obama’s Swing-State Numbers Inflated by Outspending Romney on Ads?
I think pre debate polls were influenced by the ad wave. Most were not paying close attention and their only impression of Romney was from BO's ads. The debates have given them an entirely different and more positive impression of Romney and the polls are shifting accordingly. My guess is that BO ads will be less effective in defining Romney from now on.
Absent an effective October surprise or a Romney unforced error in debate 3, I think the momentum stays with Romney.