The Latest Poll
Here is additional information strongly suggesting that Mitt Romney has a real shot at winning. Like the CNN poll cited in my post this morning, this one -- a United Technologies/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll -- is based on a likely voter screen. It shows the race tied with each candidate drawing 47% of the votes:
The survey was conducted Sept. 27-30 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.
Romney led in the poll among independents, 49 percent to 41 percent, with both candidates winning more than 90 percent support from their respective parties. The survey had Obama winning 81 percent of the nonwhite vote and Romney carrying 55 percent of white voters.
In estimating the turnout on Nov. 6, the poll projects an electorate that is 74 percent white, 11 percent African-American, and 8 percent Latino. The likely-voter party splits are 36 percent Democratic, 29 percent Republican, and 30 percent independent.
The estimates are similar to the 2008 turnout, when, according to CNN exit polling, 74 percent of voters were white, 13 percent black, and 9 percent Latino, with Democratic turnout at 39 percent, Republicans at 32 percent, and independents at 29 percent.
The poll also asked voters which party they would prefer to control the Congress. Democrats were favored there. A slim plurality of likely voters said they preferred that Democrats win enough seats to control the House and keep hold of the Senate, a positive sign for the party five weeks out from the election.
In assessing the poll, you should take note of the presumed ethnic and partisan turnout. It is weighted on the presumption that the partisan divide will be almost identical to what it was in 2008 and that the same will be true for the ethnic divide. In my judgment, neither is likely. The electorate is apt to be closer to that of 2010. In particular, the partisan weighting makes no sense. The year 2008 was an outlier in that particular, and in 2010 there was no partisan divide.
If you were to readjust this poll by reducing slightly the black turnout and by a bit more the Hispanic turnout and if you were to assume a much closer partisan divide of the sort shown by, say, Rasmussen, Romney would be ahead by a comfortable margin -- which is what I take to be the case.
Keep this in mind -- for it may be the last snapshot you get of the results of this campaign prior to all hell breaking loose. David Axelrod and those who have run Barack Obama's campaigns have a way of unleashing damaging revelations about his opponents at crucial moments in the campaign. Obama himself has, however, never been on the receiving end. But, in a few minutes, if the Drudgereport can be trusted, Sean Hannity on Fox will play a tape of Barack Obama delivering, in the presence of the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, a racial tirade well worthy of that notorious bigot. We are, for the first time, about to meet the real Barack Obama.
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Comments:
Jan '12
Re: The Latest Poll
Thanks for the heads-up; I'm tuning in!
Jul '10
Re: The Latest Poll
Problem with that is that the MSM wouldn't pick-up on anything Hannity puts forth.
Aug '10
Re: The Latest Poll
ditto that bro but hannity has 3 million and drudge has 35 !
Edited on October 3, 2012 at 3:02amOct '10
Re: The Latest Poll
Honestly? That was the big, nasty video sure to change the campaign? That's Hannity's October Surprise?
Edited on October 3, 2012 at 3:12amSep '12
Re: The Latest Poll
Black turnout was about 14% in 2008. 11% seems about right for 2012. It certainly isn't too high.
Sep '12
Re: The Latest Poll
Maybe it's only because you would be hard pressed to find somebody who thinks less of Obama than I do, but I don't think that video is going to move a single vote.
Sep '10
Re: The Latest Poll
Oh, I think that video's going to leave a mark.
Especially when you rewind all the disavowing of Rev Wright remarks and put them in a YouTube video.
Reverend Barack of PreachALot.
May '12
Re: The Latest Poll
I found the accent he put on to be insulting. Obama is not a natural Drawler and when he drops his g's it still feels condescending.
That said, any Black voter likely to be offended by him putting on that phony accent is probably not a likely Obama voter anyhow.
There was a phrase I heard back in Baltimore that applies to him using that accent, and assuming it will make him "folksy": "Ignorant". And anyone who would use that phrase was already a Striver, more likely to lean Republican anyhow, because they had seen enough friends and family emasculated and drained by waiting for the monthly check.
Jul '10
Re: The Latest Poll
I am glad you mentioned the Hannity tape, Paul. I just watched Hannity's presentation of that tape with Tucker Carlson commenting, and by itself the bits of tape shown are damning by proper standards but not at all outside the range of mainstream political dissembling. And repeating the same few minutes over and over again combined with the over the top delivery by Hannity and, to some degree, Carlson, made the whole thing look like a bad snow job. Which is regrettable, because Obama was certainly delivering an "us versus them" divisive caterwaul (while pointing at the other side for doing it in classic Alinsky fashion, which Hannity and Carlson did not call him on) and delivering a classic drawling demagogic performance. But the hammy delivery and, on the 10% local money issue, failing to directly address and defuse Obama's core point of evidence, a bit of an air ball.
I think the video can still work against Obama, I'm just sorry Fox and Hannity fumbled the opening salvo by pushing too hard.
Apr '12
Re: The Latest Poll
Obama would be happier in his new mansion in Hawaii, penning a new book and collecting mega fees fir speeches. Maybe Republicans should play Hawaiian music every time Obama appears?
Oct '10
Re: The Latest Poll
The media will see the video as irrefutable proof of Republican racism. That will be the story: Republicans shamelessly pushing a video designed to make Obama seem scary to white voters.
Jan '12
Re: The Latest Poll
This video just confirms what we already know about President Obama and his 'mentor', Jeremiah Wright!
It is the liberals who should be most disillusioned by this video, but, sadly, most will feel that 'the end justifies the means'.
It reminds me of Peter Robinson's excuse for Senator Scott Brown's liberal leanings, which was that because he has to get elected from Massachusetts, he has to appear more"independent'!
A man of principle should follow this rule:
"Let your yea be yea, and your nay be nay." Matthew 5:33
Edited on October 3, 2012 at 3:58amOct '10
Re: The Latest Poll
But it's an easy case to make. The only people who will care about this video are the political activists and junkies who have been attacked relentlessly on race for years. I don't think this will resonate with anyone outside that group, especially people who haven't been paying attention to begin with until now.
Dec '10
Re: The Latest Poll
Really, people? No one wants to talk about the poll showing a preference for Democratic control of Congress? The idea that Nancy Pelosi is the preferred Speaker of the House has me reaching for a razor! Gah!! And the country wants to keep Harry Reid as Senate leader? OMG!
Jan '12
Re: The Latest Poll
I agree.
Hannity was not the right venue for the airing of this expose; he is invariably too emotional.
Perhaps, this footage would have had a more damning effect if it had been released as a youtube video by a well-respected organization; a sort of 'Swiftboating' of Obama.
Sadly, it will not have as much shock value as if it had been released during his first campaign, when the public had not yet become used to his race-baiting politics.
Edited on October 3, 2012 at 4:38amJul '11
Re: The Latest Poll
Well, since it's only the future of America and therefore the world, I'm with you Paul. I know where Obama will lead us. I hope where Romney can lead us. Let us all pray for that better tomorrow. This debate is huge.
Nov '11
Re: The Latest Poll
Will FactCheck.org or Politifact be discussing Barack Obama's statements regarding the Stafford Act?
Chop chop, apparatchiks.
Jan '12
Re: The Latest Poll
Half the voting population lives on another planet!
Romans 1:25
Sep '12
Re: The Latest Poll
It exposes him as a liar. Money had already been promised to Katrina victims free and clear before he made those comments and he knew that, too. Did you here his justification for the race riots in LA? You don't have a future... you don't get the jobs or education you deserve. It is an ugly form of pandering. This from a guy who said we are ALL Americans. I agree the hype took away the focus from the content.
Mar '11
Re: The Latest Poll
They base a lot on the 2008 election exit polls. I was not one of those conservatives that didn't come out because McCain was such a disastrously bad candidate; he was a disastrously bad candidate, but I thought Obama would be an even more disastrous President. When I left the polling place, a nice young lady with a clipboard inquired if she could ask me a few questions, but I turned her down. The guy who had walked past her before me had turned her down too, as did at least one other person who came up after me. As I was getting out of earshot, I did overhear her talking to a rather enthusiastic Obama voter.
I wonder how good their assumptions truly are? They are basing an awful lot on what is, when one considers it, a poll on a population almost as self-selected as any you'll find on the Internet.