Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
Public Policy Polling is out with its latest:
Newt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa. He's at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.
Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.
Interesting.
If Paul wins, Tim Carney writes, get ready for some major league freak-outs among certain parts of the GOP. Me? I'd be happy. Then again, I want a different candidate winning each state until we get to a brokered convention.
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Mar '11
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
You are not alone.
Apr '11
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
Wouldn't that be great to have an old fashioned non-scripted convention where something (like nominating a Presidential candidate) actually happens?
Dec '10
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
If there ever was scenario that Obama would hope for it's Ron Paul winning Iowa. I'm nauseous.
May '10
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
Roberto
You are not alone. · Dec 18 at 9:24pm
Me three.
Jan '11
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
While I hold out some hope for a more worthy candidate, Ron Paul should be repudiated. The sooner the better.
Dec '11
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
No! What part of the 2008 Obama campaign strategy did you fail to understand? We live in a world of David Axelrods; the GOP needs to prep as early as possible to 'take on the beasts'.
Mar '11
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
EThompson
No! What part of the 2008 Obama campaign strategy did you fail to understand? We live in a world of David Axelrods; the GOP needs to prep as early as possible to 'take on the beasts'.
As Mr Axelrod would no doubt say, the more the monkey goes up the pole... oh, sorry, violates the CoC.
Hmm... axle, rod, pole...
Jun '10
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
Michael Medved (radio show audio): Jeffery Lord On "Ron Paul's Neoliberal Reeducation"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1_DinFX05Ns
Oct '10
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
Newt Gingrich's only mission right now is to ignore Romney's attacks and go after Ron Paul in Iowa.
Mar '11
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
Meh. If Paul wins, Iowa will have done very little to influence the election outcome and a great deal to lend ammunition to those elements that already suspect its voice in the electoral process is irrelevant.
Apr '11
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
It would mean that Paul was catapulted into serious contention. There are a ton of GOP primary voters who like Paul, but don't vote for him because he's not really a candidate so much as a human interest story attached to the race. If he won a race, he'd be a candidate and a hugely popular one. It is, for instance, the only circumstance I can think of under which Mitt would be at risk of losing in Nevada (which loves it some Paul). New Hampshire and South Carolina would be interesting, too. Florida would still be uncomplicatedly Newt's.
In fact, I'd guess that Paul gains at the expense of Mitt and Newt would be one of Perry's stronger chances of getting in the race with a South Carolina victory. There are a ton of impacts out there, just not easy ones to predict.
Apr '11
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
This doesn't make a brokered convention plausible, though. The early states' delegates are proportionally handed out, with the later states being winner takes all. Assuming by April we're down to a two horse race for actually taking states, mathematically it's quite hard to avoid someone getting a majority. If we do, we have insiders choosing the winner, that winner lacking legitimacy (particularly if they weren't in the race), and Obama has a substantially easier path ahead of him.
Nov '10
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
This quirky development makes me momentarily arise from my slough of despond.
I trust, however, that the great behemoth of the US will persist along its conventionalist path to self-destruction, courtesy of some obliging career politician of whatever political stripe.
Jun '10
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
PPP is one poll. However, if it is accurate then the nausea I have been feeling as I watched these debates will have been well founded. Seeing six or seven individuals striving to be the candidate of the Republican party by oft times criticizing and belittling each other is disgusting. I would like to offer a quote from Chuck Norris:
"If we are going to win the war for the White House, it's going to be solely in our ability to rally together and keep our scopes on the current occupant of the White House, not by aiming at one another.
So let's flood the media and blogosphere with discussion about the strengths each candidate possesses. Let's keep the focus on real solutions to get this country back on track. Let's live out the acronym TEAM and show progressives and the world that "together everyone achieves more," namely winning back the White House and Senate and maintaining a majority in the House of Representatives, which would save our republic.
United we stand; divided we most certainly will fall."
If we are now left with Ron Paul, as a result of this process.....
May '11
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
My goodness! The one candidate that has had undeniably constant Constitutional values and has advocated smaller government throughout his career has come to the fore in Iowa.
Principles before Party. Hmmm. How odd.
Sep '10
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
The poll shows Romney's persistent weakness. After an amazing number of hatchet jobs and negative ads, Newt is coming back to the pack. Does Mitt gain from any of this? Nope. Ron Freaking Paul is picked over Mitt.
The presidency is a political position. It requires political ability. If Mitt's got it, it sure isn't showing.
Apr '11
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
I was just reading about Henry Cabot Lodge, who won the 1964 New Hampshire primary as an undeclared write in candidate.
From Wikipedia:
"His entire campaign was organized by a small band of political amateurs working independently of the ambassador, and Lodge, believing they had little hope of winning him any delegates, did nothing to aid their efforts. But when they scored the New Hampshire upset, Lodge, along with the press and Republican party leaders, suddenly began to seriously consider his candidacy."
Could something like this work with a Paul Ryan or Mitch Daniels? Could a prospect as horrific as a Ron Paul nomination scare one of these men into action?
Edited on Dec 19, 2011 at 5:38amOct '10
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
Ron Paul could very well win Iowa, but it no more assures him of the nomination than it did for Mick Huckabee who won it the last time around. The only way Ron Paul wins the nomination is if the GOP has secretly transformed itself into a larger version of the Libertarian Party.
Ron Paul is doing well because he has a portable and enthusiastic base of libertarian support and he's passionate at a time when people are sick of squishy politicians. He also has the benefit of being "other" with a GOP primary voter base that is stuck with an awful choice between Gingrich and Romney.
I've said it before and I'll say it again because I still do not understand, but I'm amazed at how weak the GOP primary field was this time around at a time when the GOP has a tremendous advantage. It really is the stupid party. How on earth could the remaining viable choices be the three fundamentally flawed candidates of Paul, Gingrich, and Romney?
Dec '10
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
How much of this is attributable to conservative media's thrashing of Newt? Wouldn't that be just dandy if the establishment managed to herd the electorate to the worst of the non-Romney candidates in its attempt to make us just shut up and pick their guy.
Jun '10
Re: Paul Leads In Iowa, Gingrich Numbers Drop
I am most definitely not a Paul supporter, but a win by him in Iowa would do two things that I would like: (1) badly hurt Gingrich (I'm not a fan) and, (2) most importantly, dramatically increase the overall entertainment value of this primary season (hey, if we can't have the list of candidates we wanted, we may as well be entertained by the process).