Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
ABC News and the Washington Post are out with their latest poll of Americans and here's the summary:
The public opinion boost President Obama received after the killing of Osama bin Laden has dissipated, and Americans’ disapproval of how he is handling the nation’s economy and the deficit has reached new highs, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
The survey portrays a broadly pessimistic mood in the country this spring as higher gasoline prices, sliding home values and a disappointing employment picture have raised fresh concerns about the pace of the economic recovery.
It goes on. His approval rating is underwater -- more people disapprove of his performance than approve. And this was a survey of registered voters -- not likely voters. So the numbers are probably much worse for Obama.
It's probably too early for this to be meaningful, but former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is the only Republican contender who would beat Obama in a match-up. Who fares the worst? Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.
- Comment (19)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (1)
Comments :
Apr '11
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
This was probably to be expected. Jim Geraghty and others have been noting that the jump in poll numbers was because he got bin Laden, and the all-important economy numbers stayed about the same.
Jun '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
I think Obama is beatable, and don't understand why that's an alien notion. Obama's policies are Jimmy Carter, phase two.
True, he still has some vibe, but it's fading fast. He does have two groups who won't abandon him: the far left, even though he's ignored them, and African-Americans, who for some complicated reasons that I don't fully understand, see Obama as their guy (despite the fact that his background and experience are completely different from those who grew up black in America).
If the Republican candidate (holding one's nose in the voting booth may be required) can win the economic argument and convince the independents that Obama has made their lives worse, he'll be gone.
This time, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and maybe Wisconsin and Minnesota go Republican, and Obama can write his third memoir (he'll need an extra keyboard because the "I" key will wear out on the first).
Edited on Jun 7, 2011 at 6:39amMay '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
Dammit, Mollie, did we really need that stinger in the tail? Sigh.
I'd say Romney's prominence here is due to name recognition, and that there are several candidates presently in the field who could beat Obama convincingly upon becoming the nominee. Alas, those of high name recognition that don't fare so well against President Hopey are not good bets.
Tabula, how much fun would it be to mess with the TOTUS's "I" key? That's a hacking endeavor well worth the risk.
Sep '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
Before we even look at the Republican challenger it's useful to take a look at where Obama is politically. I think Obama is going to have a very difficult time convincing the same folks who voted for him in 2008 to repeat the action. .Oh sure, most of them will dutifully pull the lever for him, but not all. Some will stay home and some will vote for the Republican. How many new voters will Obama have to attract to make up the difference? How will he attract them? By saying he has experience now and he's gonna make everything better? The economy isn't going to improve until this President leaves office. This is the fundamental meme that the GOP should promote. It rings true. Business doesn't trust Obama - no one really trusts Obama but his hard-core allies.
In conversations with Democrats I know they aren't defending him, they have pretty much given up on the guy.
When you consider that most candidates vying for the nomination are better candidates than John McCain, the media environment is improving from 2008, I'm getting pretty confidant that Obama will lose.
Jun '11
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
Beware Greeks bearing gifts.
Like Mr. McCain, Romney is the Republican candidate most loved by the Left because he is eminently beatable.
Romney cannot win but the other side will convince us that he can.
May '11
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
The Republican megaphone must loudly, clearly and constantly state how bad the jobs problem is and how badly we are being lied to about the unemployment figures.
The Republican message must be how bad the administration has lied about jobs. Then the Republican nominee can present the way out through his/her plan. The nominee's message must be, "I can put you back to work. Working together, we can get back to normal and away from this stupid experiment in socialism."
The message on healthcare and Social Security? If everyone has jobs, they can afford healthcare and can save for retirement.
A stupid socialism experiment should be the anvil and joblessness the hammer the nominee uses to pound out the message. It's not "The Economy, Stupid." It's JOBS-JOBS-JOBS.
Jan '11
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
Obama's job performance has been so bad, that under fair conditions we wouldn't even consider re-electing him.
But that's the problem: we know that the conditions aren't fair.
When Paul Ryan put out (what is, even he would acknowledge) a first step to confronting a large problem, we all suspected what the Democrat response would be: Mediscare. What most people didn't anticipate was how ferocious and unprincipled the Democrats would be. And, in the one measurable barometer, a local Republican in NY-26 blew her advantages and lost to a Mediscare Democrat. Was it fair? No. But that's reality.
It's deeply frustrating that we aren't playing in a fair game. The liberals control the media, and therefore distort the message. We hope that people won't fall for it, but enough of them do -- enough to worry us.
We're looking for someone who can rise above the unfairness, and communicate despite the distortion. Reagan could beat the media without getting bogged down in it. He did it with simplicity and directness -- the simpler the message, the harder it is to distort. Simplicity is what we need.
Apr '11
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
michael kelley: Beware Greeks bearing gifts.
Like Mr. McCain, Romney is the Republican candidate most loved by the Left because he is eminently beatable.
Romney cannot win but the other side will convince us that he can. · Jun 7 at 7:25am
A loud second to that! Just as McCain was the "favorite" Republican among the Democratic news media in 2008, Romney is now the recipient of their "most electable" crown. We have months to go to sort this out, so don't be snookered by liberals telling you who is the strongest G.O.P. candidate. It's a parlor trick.
Oct '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
Polls today are meaningless. How is President Hillary Clinton doing?
Obama CANNOT POSSIBLY win reelection. Even the media is beginning to turn against him. Check out the Washington Post fact-checking the auto bailout speech:
Republicans don't need to make the "John Kerry" mistake of voting for the allegedly most electable person. Romney is a dead man walking on the campaign trail. The only reason he leads in the polls is because of name recognition.
Primaries make candidates, not the other way around. Obama's tough primary fight with Hillary prepared him for the general election. Let's not get wrapped up in meaningless polls so early and making conclusions prematurely.
Jul '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
Ken Sweeney:
Obama CANNOT POSSIBLY win reelection.
How do you square that circle?
Feb '11
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
I always thought that the reason Bush the First lost was he just couldn't believe that the American people would vote for a yahoo like Clinton over him. Up until election day, he never accepted Clinton as a legitimate challanger.
I'm sure that Obama has the same blind spot, in which case the best Republican candidate would be someone that the left just could never take seriously. Right now that looks like Palin, but it would be better to find a "sleeper" that is better prepared for the office.
May '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
Putting Romney in a pigeonhole with McCain is absurd--it completely ignores their resumes (or lack thereof), as well as the fact that this time around, there's an incumbent to beat.
Tell me, the left loves Romney? How is this love expressed? The left loves Palin
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
Ken Sweeney: Polls today are meaningless. How is President Hillary Clinton doing?
Obama CANNOT POSSIBLY win reelection. Even the media is beginning to turn against him. Check out the Washington Post fact-checking the auto bailout speech:
Republicans don't need to make the "John Kerry" mistake of voting for the allegedly most electable person. Romney is a dead man walking on the campaign trail. The only reason he leads in the polls is because of name recognition.
Primaries make candidates, not the other way around. Obama's tough primary fight with Hillary prepared him for the general election. Let's not get wrapped up in meaningless polls so early and making conclusions prematurely. · Jun 7 at 10:35am
Obama can win re-election. The Republicans can save him, and -- if we do not stop them -- they are likely to do so. The proud father of Romneycare is the man for the job.
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
ParisParamus: Putting Romney in a pigeonhole with McCain is absurd--it completely ignores their resumes (or lack thereof), as well as the fact that this time around, there's an incumbent to beat.
Tell me, the left loves Romney? How is this love expressed? The left loves Palin · Jun 7 at 2:26pm
The man who brought Massachusetts Romneycare makes one nostalgic for John McCain -- and, funny thing, he lost out to McCain in 2008.
Edited on Jun 7, 2011 at 7:05pmJul '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
Exactly. The intramural scrap is important.
But we do ourselves a major disservice to presume it's the end-all be-all.
Oct '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
Palaeologus
Ken Sweeney:
Obama CANNOT POSSIBLY win reelection.
How do you square that circle? · Jun 7 at 10:47am
I don't need to "square that circle." Both of my comments are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. There is no overlap. Even Romney can beat Obama, in my opinion. This is our opportunity to get a true conservative elected to the White House.
Jul '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
Ken Sweeney
Palaeologus
Ken Sweeney:
Obama CANNOT POSSIBLY win reelection.
How do you square that circle? · Jun 7 at 10:47am
I don't need to "square that circle." Both of my comments are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive. There is no overlap. Even Romney can beat Obama, in my opinion. This is our opportunity to get a true conservative elected to the White House. · Jun 7 at 7:40pm
So... public opinion at the moment doesn't matter unless you're the president. The generic, ill-informed opinions of "independents" are only fixed regarding Obama? And they're stuck in place through November 2012?
Jumps and dips in historical presidential approval ratings suggest otherwise.
Barry is almost certain to be one of the two people competing for a historically hard-fought office, and an incumbent at that. He's vulnerable, sure, but he's no also ran.
Try again.
Jun '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
It's way too soon to worry one way or the other about Republicans and what magic person will sweep in to save the day. Waiting for Superman -- so ridiculous.
Romney is so much better than McCain. He's real, he's trustworthy, he's smart, he has gravitas, he will beat Obama in debates. He will not suspend his campaign either -- meaning that he will stay with the fight and he is reliably stable, not driven by emotion.
But, it does distress me that no one above (and I agree with a lot of the above) has mentioned the real reason that Obama is so cosseted by the media: his race. This is the very reason that Obama was elected and it will be the very reason he is reelected.
Obama and the Dems and the MSM don't need to play the race card now. The race card is not played as a general tool it's aimed very specifically and once we have a Republican nominee then the clever people will be working very hard to use it in just the right way. Something specific will be used. This is why Obama was chosen even though inexperienced.
Nov '10
Re: Obama Can't Lose Reelection, Right?
Right on! :-)