Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
Out here in the Golden State yesterday, our new old governor, Jerry Brown, delivered his state of the state address. (President Obama's speechwriters, take note: Gov. Brown's entire address lasted less than half an hour.) The governor proposed closing the deficit--over the next two years, California faces a $25.4 billion shortfall--by cutting spending about $12 billion and adding a five-year extension to the "emergency" income and sales tax increases enacted in 2009.
Rather than simply permitting the tax extension to sail through the legislature, though, Gov. Brown--and this strikes me as a very big deal--proposed putting the measure to the people of California themselves, permitting citizens to vote on it this June. (Getting the tax measure on a June ballot will itself require a two-thirds vote of the legislature.) "My plan to rebuild California," the governor said, "requires a vote of the people."
As best I can tell, the governor is indeed up to a few tricks, in particular cutting unpopular programs now while holding off on more popular programs--particularly funding for public schools--until after the June ballot. If Californians want full funding for their schools, he's saying, then they'll have to vote for higher taxes. And of course the teacher's unions will spend millions campaigning for the higher taxes
But still. Gov. Brown isn't trying to soak Californians in some back-room deal with the unions and legislature. He's giving us two shots at rejecting higher taxes: First, Republicans in the state legislature can--and, I believe, will--try to prevent the tax extension from being placed on a June ballot to begin with. Since the Republicans in Sacramento only hold about a third of the seats, and since a few will probably break ranks to support the governor--you know, to do the "responsible" thing--it'll be close. And if the Republicans in the state legislature fail, then in June the people of this Golden State will get the chance to reject higher taxes in the voting booth.
All that strikes me as fair enough, to be honest--and a lot better than I'd expected from Jerry.
What do my fellow Californians have to say?
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Comments :
Jul '10
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
Having an opportunity to vote on a tax increase is surely a better option than having it shoved down our throats.
I think his direction is wise. If voters approve a tax increase, so be it. If they refuse, he has a powerful mandate for spending cuts to hold over the heads of legislators.
One has to wonder how much more or less effective Meg Whitman would have been in Sacramento's political environment. My assessment is that Brown, if he truly wants a legacy as the savior of California, has a better chance of making things happen than she would have. She was weak and easily demonized. Brown may be flaky, but no one on the left can successfully accuse him of being anything other than one of their own.
Dec '10
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
My personel predictions is that the voters will not pass the tax extention. After that the legislature will pass a budget resolution for all California taxpayers to pay their 2012 estimated taxes by 6/30/11. May and June payments will be deferred until July 1, 2011(the next fiscal year).
I do not have much faith in Sacramento being able to make the hard decisions until forced to do so.
May '10
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
Like Willnerd I suspect that the tax measures will fail, given the economic situation and mood of the voters. Good for Brown giving the voters the option. Our state government (Including Brown) have a history of ignoring votes they dislike, so we'll see if they stand by the result.
Jun '10
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
I watched the speech on YouTube, and was pleasantly surprised. I liked it a lot more than the SOTU (though that's not saying much). For starters as you say it was short, and to the point. He hurried through it with his head down most of the time, though he was genuinely funny and charming in a few of his off-script remarks. The whole affair just seemed so much more down-to-Earth and businesslike, without the airbrushed made-for-TV pomp that makes the SOTU nearly unwatchable.
Jun '10
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
Tax increase initiatives on the ballot is nothing new. It’s how most anything gets funded given the limitations, thankfully that Prop. 13 imposes on the legislature.
Given California’s high unemployment rate and the already repressive tax and regulatory regime on small business, my vote is that voters will not vote to be taxed more. I think there is a growing hostility to the public employee service unions, some of whose members are drawing multiple pensions. Are they somehow more cherished than average Californians trying to eke out a living in the private sector – where job security is not as guaranteed? If the teachers unions throw millions at a pro-tax campaign, voters may determine, given the poor academic performance of California schools, near the bottom in U.S. rankings, that rewarding dismal performance is not wise. The more vocal and expensive their campaign, the more it’s likely to backfire.
In the end voters may essentially say that they don’t care if the state defaults on its obligation to fund PSEUs because many feel that the unions have held too much sway in Sacramento for far too long and perhaps it’s time they got their comeuppance.
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
Hm. Would you agree, Kenneth, Willnerd, and my old friend Jay, that the subtext of all our comments is that Jerry Brown is actually playing it...fair?
All my life, I'd had people hector me, claiming I was never able to say a single good word about any Democrat. I'm not quite ready to commit myself, but Jerry looks, well, okay, don't you suppose?
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
P.S. I hereby extend and revise my last post to include Joseph Stanko and Brian Watt, who can always be counted on for incisive observations, and who managed to slip in their posts while I was composing mine.
Jun '10
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
Well, Peter..Jerry is positioning himself to appear fair. He is a wily one, that. He's one of those maverick liberals that occasionally blurts out something rational and even conservative sounding. I think it was his Jesuit upbringing. Sometimes his heart is in the right place even if his mind has to catch up to get there.
Jul '10
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
Peter Robinson: Hm. Would you agree, Kenneth, Willnerd, and my old friend Jay, that the subtext of all our comments is that Jerry Brown is actually playing it...fair?
All my life, I'd had people hector me, claiming I was never able to say a single good word about any Democrat. I'm not quite ready to commit myself, but Jerry looks, well, okay, don't you suppose? · Feb 1 at 6:46pm
Well, we live in the wrong universe for fair, but he seems to be approaching his task prudently. And I suspect he realizes that the days when a Democrat could blithely indulge in class warfare while ignoring grim reality are gone.
Jun '10
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
To be "fair" about Jerry, I must admit I do find him most refreshing when he takes a break from irritating conservatives and irritates members of his own party. He is definitely a unique politician and one that we are not likely to see again...since his days of being seen again have probably run their course...unless he wants to be a city councilman somewhere after being governor twice.
Feb '11
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
I'm instinctively suspicious of Jerry, but I have to say that I developed a grudging respect for him after seeing him several times in line for Southwest flights between Oakland and LA when he was AG. I mean, it's not like you'd ever run into Nancy Pelosi waiting to board a commercial aircraft.
As for the tax increases, we'll see....I feel that they're kind of inevitable, but at least maybe we won't all feel so angry about it if it's done fairly.
Jun '10
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
Peter - Off topic, but just wanted to thank you for the Uncommon Knowledge interview with Stanley Kurtz. I've been looking forward to an in-depth interview of him for some time. The first two installments are great and look forward to the remaining three. I would have emailed these comments to you offline but Ricochet...at present...doesn't have a way to do this. Perhaps at some point in the future?
One thing that I find so refreshing is the respect that you have for all of the authors you interview by displaying their books so prominently each time you quote from them. Other interviewers on television would do well to do the same and learn from someone who is respectful to their guests.
Cheers.
Sep '10
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
I'm no longer a Californian, but it appears that Jerry is at least coming half way. My recollection of the Grey Davis recall is that the recall initiative gained strength when Grey said we must raise taxes and that is all we can do.
At least Jerry is saying he will cut spending about as much as he will raise taxes. I would want a 2 or 3 to 1 ratio of spending cuts to taxes, but compared to Grey this is an improvement.
Dec '10
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
Moonbeam looks like Ronald Reagan compared to my governor, the illustrious Pat Quinn. And Rahm Emanuel is by far the most conservative candidate in the Chicago mayoral race right now.
P.S. Chicago is having a blizzard right now.
Sunny California is looking very appealing!
May '10
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
Kenneth
Peter Robinson: Hm. Would you agree, Kenneth, Willnerd, and my old friend Jay, that the subtext of all our comments is that Jerry Brown is actually playing it...fair?
All my life, I'd had people hector me, claiming I was never able to say a single good word about any Democrat. I'm not quite ready to commit myself, but Jerry looks, well, okay, don't you suppose? · Feb 1 at 6:46pm
...but he seems to be approaching his task prudently. And I suspect he realizes that the days when a Democrat could blithely indulge in class warfare while ignoring grim reality are gone. · Feb 1 at 6:55pm
To be fair, Brown, while always firmly in the Democrat camp, shed a lot of ideology during his term as mayor of Oakland, He got rid of a lot of deadwood in the city's bureaucracy, was friendly to private-enterprise development, he even championed a military academy in the Oakland public schools, and took a lot of flak for it from the local flower-children types. Even George Will was impressed.
If anyone can do a Nixon-to-China with the California legislature, it would be Brown.
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
Brian Watt: Peter - Off topic, but just wanted to thank you for the Uncommon Knowledge interview with Stanley Kurtz. I've been looking forward to an in-depth interview of him for some time. The first two installments are great and look forward to the remaining three. I would have emailed these comments to you offline but Ricochet...at present...doesn't have a way to do this. Perhaps at some point in the future?
· Feb 1 at 7:15pm
Thanks for the kind words, Brian--and, yes, we're working on developing software to permit members to get in touch with each other directly.
I've known Stanley Kurtz for years, so I knew just how smart and hard-working he is. To be honest, though, I thought when I sat down with his book that Stanley might have gone too far. Obama? A socialist? A real socialist? Even if he were, what difference would it make? At this point, Americans know that man, right?
As you've already seen, Stanley has answers to those questions. Has he ever.
Jul '10
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
Jennifer Bennett: I'm instinctively suspicious of Jerry, but I have to say that I developed a grudging respect for him after seeing him several times in line for Southwest flights between Oakland and LA when he was AG. I mean, it's not like you'd ever run into Nancy Pelosi waiting to board a commercial aircraft.
As for the tax increases, we'll see....I feel that they're kind of inevitable, but at least maybe we won't all feel so angry about it if it's done fairly. · Feb 1 at 7:05pm
Welcome, Jennifer!
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
Peter,
I'm with you on the superiority of putting the tax increase measure to the voters instead of trying to force it through the legislature with an impropriety reminiscent of ObamaCare (that's essentially what Schwarzenegger did in 2009). That being said, I hope the measure doesn't qualify or, failing that, gets shot down at the ballot box (as did the tax-hiking Prop 1A in 2009 -- by 2/3rds of California voters). Because California has one of the worst environments in the nation for taxation and regulation, Einstein's definition of insanity comes to mind.
Like several others who have commented here, I hold out a scintilla of hope that Brown might have the ideological flexibility to turn the state around. Until I see him tackle pensions and public employee levels, however, I won't be convinced.
Finally, a note on the speech. It was mercifully short and the off-the-cuff jokes were genuinely funny. The prepared text, however, may have been one of the most substance-free orations I've ever heard from a major politician. And that's saying something.
Edited on Feb 1, 2011 at 11:09pmFeb '11
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
Peter, agreed with the earlier comment, UCN is great.
Nov '10
Re: Jerry Brown? A Lot Better Than I'd Expected
Jennifer Bennett, a new member (welcome) says: "As for the tax increases, we'll see....I feel that they're kind of inevitable...".
That would be yielding to the old adage: Nothing is certain except for death and taxes. I am hopeful that it does not extend to tax increases. Tax increases were defeated soundly the last time they came on the ballot. I am hopeful that they will so again in June if they get there.
California, with what are already among the highest taxes in the country, needs to be far more efficient with what is already being collected. The public sector unions are not feeling the pinch enough as yet.
Edited on Feb 3, 2011 at 7:55am