Bending the Cost Curve on Health Care
Just before Democrats passed the ObamaCare bill, they frequently claimed that it would "bend the cost curve"--that is, to change the curve that had been steeply upwardly sloping (over time) to one that is downward sloping, or at least less steeply upwardly sloping.
That's why this graph, published yesterday in the New York Times, is especially remarkable. It shows how the change in health care costs (but not the actual level of costs) had actually been sloping downward since 2002 or 2003. But between 2010 and 2011 it takes a dramatic turn upwards. It's about the most hockey-stick-looking graph I've ever seen in social science.
Peter Orzag, President Obama's OMB chairman at the time that ObamaCare was considered, was perhaps the most vociferous about claiming that the bill would "bend the cost curve." Esquire magazine published this in-depth interview, which discusses those claims. The interview was part of a series of articles about the "Best and Brightest" people of 2009.
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Comments:
May '10
Re: Bending the Cost Curve on Health Care
Behold the power of the (predicted) unintended consequence. In a rational world this would make not only President Obama, but anyone who voted for this nonsense unelectable.
May '11
Re: Bending the Cost Curve on Health Care
And what will be the solution? A single payer system? The legislation was intended to aid the destruction of the, admittedly deformed, market.
Sep '10
Re: Bending the Cost Curve on Health Care
The graphs you reference are clearly labeled and reflect that they are referencing Health Care Premiums which I assume means what is commonly incorrectly called insurance. They may be reflective of health care costs or may just be reflective of more services and more people being covered under policies. (Preventive care, birth control, 26 year olds, etc.) I suspect it is a combination of the two. I think Obama care was a horrendous mistake, but your post does not present a logical refutation of it
Jul '11
Re: Bending the Cost Curve on Health Care
Come on, we knew at the time that they were lying through their teeth. Their game was to get the thing passed and when the costs and the dropped coverage reached a critical mass they would make a play for single payer. This is not hindsight; it was clear from the start.
Apr '11
Re: Bending the Cost Curve on Health Care
We may have known, but I know plenty who took the bait, hook, line, and sinker (an appropriate analogy even if I haven't fished for years).
The trick is to always paint things in the terms of the immediate. "We're paying too much for health care" gives no measure of scale or comparison. It only creates an imaginary threshold which we've apparently crossed. No one likes to pay "too much," especially when someone says you can pay less and get the same quality.
Aug '10
Re: Bending the Cost Curve on Health Care
Did they ever actually say it would "Bend the cost curve down"?
I always heard the "Bend the cost curve" part - it was inferred that it would be in a positive direction - which they actually lived up to.
Edited on September 28, 2011 at 9:06pmRe: Bending the Cost Curve on Health Care
Tim, Tim, Tim. Haven't you been in academia long enough now to have learned? When it comes to liberal causes, the facts don't matter.
Wish you'd been here at Hoover yesterday, by the way. You'd have loved Cong. Paul Ryan. Now there's a man who knows how to bend cost curves.