Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
By now it is clear that, in terms of public perceptions (maybe on points, too), all three debates have been winners for Romney-Ryan. But have they been big enough winners to push the GOP ticket over the top?
In Washington, the question is being framed this way: Is Romney up 49-47 points, as pollster Scott Rasmussen's three day tracking poll shows, or is he up 52-45 points, per Gallup's seven-day tracker.
Walter Mondale's '84 campaign manager Bob Beckel said yesterday on Fox that if Gallup is right, the race is over. In other words, if Gallup is right, the swing state by swing state polling that is the current obsession can be dismissed as beside the point. It is inconceivable that a seven point national popular vote margin would produce anything other than an Electoral College win.
That's why, here in D.C., the political and journalistic worlds are waiting anxiously for today's Gallup numbers.Gallup's first daily report with a big spread (on Tuesday) could have been a fluke. The second day's (which is where we are as I write) looked more plausible, particularly as Romney's number moved up a point, suggesting that he had polled extraordinarily strongly two nights in a row. So if Gallup's numbers hold up today, you can expect the weekend buzz to be that the Obama reelection prospects could be collapsing, a prospect I speculated on in an earlier post.
Is it really possible that the debates had such a one-sided impact? Yes, thanks to a major strategic miscalculation of Team Obama, one that a senior Democrat highlighted at the beginning of the week. Monday night on BBC radio, I was paired with Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign manager Mickey Kantor. Asked what the president had to do in the next evening's debate, Kantor did not lead with pummeling Romney, the flavor of the day in Democratic circles and exactly what Mr. Obama made Job One the next night. Instead, Kantor started out saying Obama needed to articulate an agenda for the next four years, advice which, if he heard, the president ignored.
Instead of promoting an agenda, the president's campaign has been built around what they call "disqualifying" Mitt Romney. We've all seen the ads and heard the charges. But here's the mistake. If you 1) offer no plan for the future, 2) put something like $100 million in advertising behind portraying your opponent as a monster and 3) that story doesn't stand up when you and he meet with 60-70 million people watching, you have discredited yourself and have nothing to fall back on.
That's where the race may be today. When the tracking polls are updated sometime this morning, we will have a better feel for what the state of play actually is.
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Comments:
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
Absolutely right in every particular. Romney has run a brilliant campaign, letting Obama spend his money and hang himself. All it took was the public appearance of Mitt Romney and his obvious decency to win the day.
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
Incidentally, you failed to mention the Susquehanna poll showing Romney four points ahead in, yes, Pennsylvania.
Sep '10
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
The correct question is how should these poles be interpreted. Both I assume are right. Neither organization claims its work is predictive of what the "national popular vote margin" will be. The poles indicate that Romney has had momentum for the past two weeks and seems to be the popular choice at this time. The opposite was true three weeks ago.
The idea pushed by most journalists that the debates seldom make a difference is as vacuous as most ideas pushed by journalists. Debates either solidify and strengthen opinions already held about a candidate, thus increasing the likelihood the person will go out and vote for a given candidate, do the opposite or influence a person to make or change a decision. This year the latter seems to have been the predominant one.
I think Romney will probably hold onto his momentum, or build on it and as Prof Rhae maintains, win in a landslide. I am not certain of this, but one thing I am certain of that the big looser will be the profession of journalism. Perhaps in four years we can have debates without journalists involved. That would be a big improvement.
May '10
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
I agree with Mr. Judge. When during the day does Gallup update its numbers?
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
1 p.m. E.T.
Jan '11
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
If true then there's some money to be made over at InTrade.
May '10
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
Didn't governor Brown just sign into law a legislative act that would pledge California's electoral college votes to the winner of the national popular vote, and haven't several other states done the same?
Sounds like a national 50% plus 1 would win the popular vote wins the White House, battleground and swing states be damned? What looked good in 2000 might not be so sweet in 2012.
It can't be that simple, what am I missing?
Jun '11
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
"Fail" is such a harsh word Maestro....
Oct '10
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
Indeed. The answer to the question "If the election was held today, who would you vote for?" is pretty meaningless because, in fact, the election was not held today, and no-one in either camp thought it was going to be.
In any event, I do hope Ricochet doesn't become an 'all the polls, all the time' site for the next three weeks...
Oct '12
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
F. L. Booth: Didn't governor Brown just sign into law a legislative act that would pledge California's electoral college votes to the winner of the national popular vote, and haven't several other states done the same?
Sounds like a national 50% plus 1 would win the popular vote wins the White House, battleground and swing states be damned? What looked good in 2000 might not be so sweet in 2012.
It can't be that simple, what am I missing? · 4 minutes ago
My understanding is that only kicks in if 50% of the states also do the same, essentially nullifying the electoral college system.
May '10
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
Joseph Paquette
My understanding is that only kicks in if 50% of the states also do the same, essentially nullifying the electoral college system. · 0 minutes ago
That could be the case, though as I recall the apportionment of electoral votes is at the sole discretion of the individual states. I have a general dislike for anything that changes what was enlightened, long term thinking of the founders, including the 17th amendment. Today however, when so many red voters are disenfranchised by huge government dependent urban centers it is starting to sound better.
That has to be Un-American of me though.
Oct '12
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
i trust rasmussen more. romney may be gaining, but senate GOP bets are slipping...
Jul '10
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
Joseph Paquette
F. L. Booth: Didn't governor Brown just sign into law a legislative act that would pledge California's electoral college votes to the winner of the national popular vote, and haven't several other states done the same?
Sounds like a national 50% plus 1 would win the popular vote wins the White House, battleground and swing states be damned? What looked good in 2000 might not be so sweet in 2012.
It can't be that simple, what am I missing? · 4 minutes ago
My understanding is that only kicks in if 50% of the states also do the same, essentially nullifying the electoral college system. · 46 minutes ago
THAT would be a disaster. It would mean New York, California, Chicago, and a minimal amount of other areas would dictate our presidential elections.
Liberals have long been trying to subvert our republic with "democracy" - a concept the founders scrupulously kept at bay.
Mar '12
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
Regardless, BO is at 47% in both polls. An incumbent below 50% is in trouble. Also, averaging the two polls gives R 50.5% BO 47%.
Jun '12
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
Devereaux
THAT would be a disaster. It would mean New York, California, Chicago, and a minimal amount of other areas would dictate our presidential elections. · 17 minutes ago
Precisely why lefties love the idea.
Jun '11
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
I shorted Obama Presidential futures at $7.80 , LCJoe. So far he's fallen to $6.00 per (roughly). So far so good. I think I'll hold on and not cover.
Jun '11
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
I don't know the numbers of folks that watched the debates, but I bet each one yields fewer and fewer viewers. The first debate will have the most impact, with each one mattering less and less.
It's too bad Romney didn't agree to just one debate, as things couldn't go any better for him after the first one.
But then, who could have predicted Obama's poor showing in the first one?
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
To Paul Rahe: Thank you for the compliment. And I did not know about the Pennsylvania poll. Wow!
To liberalJim: Description of how debates function is well taken. What you say about the cluelessness of the dismissive media is right, too.
To all who discussed CA Electoral College law: Thank you. My 2 cents -- The consensus in the 1787 convention was that the method of electing the executive should work against "cabal and corruption." By forcing broad national campaigning, the winner-take-all Electoral College system leans against cabal. We are fighting over a wide range of states, not maximizing turnout in NY, LA and a handful of metro areas. The system also leans against corruption. If in 2000 we had a popular vote that was as close as it was and we had not had the college, Gore's people would have had every ballot in the country examined for hanging chads. Corruption of the process would have been massive... probably would be in every election.
To Richard O'Shea: I feel Romney has needed successive victories, to confirm his standing in waverers' minds.
Edited on October 19, 2012 at 8:58pmSep '12
Re: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
Gallup ticked down a point for Romney, is this a bad sign?
Especially along with Rasmussen going back to even, though he said Romney has held a slight lead in support for the past two nights.
Edited on October 19, 2012 at 7:05pmRe: Who's Right, Gallup or Rasmussen? Today May Tell
To Michael Hinton: Yesterday we were looking at two upticks in a row, the first very large. Today's number don't give us a third uptick, but don't fall back from Monday's big news either. It suggests to me that Gallup's spread (placing Romney over 50%) is real, by their methods. But on Election Day will that spread turn out to be real? The first question to answer is, why the gap between Rasmussen and Gallup? I'll dig into that one and get back to you if I find anything worth reporting.
Edited on October 19, 2012 at 10:54pm