WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Tristan Abbey ·
Feb 3 at 10:48am
The Wall Street Journal's panel of economists is universally cheering today's jobs report. A few samplings:
- "Our quick read through of today’s report shows that this is unquestionably a positive report in nearly every way...."
- "This is a game-changer. Right on cue..."
- "It’s hard to find much not to like in today’s jobs report. Strength is everywhere..."
- "The January employment report is a blow-out number. It is strong in virtually every way that it could be...."
Some right-wing skeptics -- Human Events, Washington Times -- are pointing to the drop in the labor participation rate, but another story from the WSJ suggests that this is due to retiring baby boomers.
What is the conservative response? That things would simply be even better under Republican rule?
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Dec '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
As with everything involving massive amounts of data, one must distinguish noise from trends.
One month, one quarter, one year... all meaningless without context provided by the following years.
Jan '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
A fair point but how many good reports are required before we admit there is a trend?
Sep '10
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
I think this scene from Groundhog Day expressed my sentiments best:
Phil: You wanna throw up here, or you wanna throw up in the car?
Ralph: I think... both.
Edited on Feb 3 at 10:31amJan '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Are you Ralph in this story? ;-)
Sep '10
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Both.
Mar '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
On Varney's show this morning, it was also announced that 1.8 million people stopped looking for work. That's why the rate declined.
Jan '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
The 1.2 million decrease in labor force participation might explain part of the drop in the unemployment rate but it does not explain away the 240,000+ jobs that were created...
Aug '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
1. It will not be repeated in February.
2. We can assume that with the Republican Primary in full force, employers are already assuming a regime change.
Mar '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Douglas Kimball:
2. We can assume that with the Republican Primary in full force, employers are already assuming a regime change. · 1 minute ago
Which matter not one whit if voters look at it and go "Gee, Obama's policies are working. Better stick with him".
May '10
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Rush talked about this today. As he said, this is completely predictable. The reports will continue to signal a recovery right up to the November election.
Figures don't lie, but liars figure.
Sep '10
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
As the population of the US is not projected to decline any time soon (even with the baby boomers shuffling off this mortal coil), a decline in workforce participation is bad news as it means there's less productive citizens out their keeping our society growing (or just running).
Apparently those emminent economists have defined down good news to be just not miserable news. Also, they're probably not considering workforce underparticipation--like all of those 20 and 50 somethings that are working part time or in jobs they're overqualified for becauset the economy hasn't grown enough in the past 4 years to even come close to creating enough high-quality jobs for them to fill.
Until we get several years of 3.5+ GDP growth, this malaise will continue, and we'll just begin to forget what good times are and how America was once great. And with that, you should probably just turn to the immortal words of the Gipper, who said it better than I...
Jun '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
You pose a great question.
There is a "given" that kind of circulates through a certain section of the American mindset - it is that the federal government is responsible for economic growth or its absence.
As a player among other players, there is no doubt that the feds exercise influence but so do a lot of other groups and industries. The economy is much bigger than a one or two term traveler.
From a broader span, how much of our current economic malaise can be traced directly to the massive demographic shift which has begun - the retirement of the Baby Boomers? Consumption patterns in Europe, Japan and the United States inevitably change because older people consume less than 30 year olds raising kids. Appetites are restrained. Demand slows. This downturn is not a temporary blip; it's built in to the culture and will affect us for decades.
In the real world, an Obama doesn't get credit for a blip in jobs just as a George Bush doesn't rightly get the blame for the implosion in the residential real estate market.
Jan '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Aaron Miller: Rush talked about this today. As he said, this is completely predictable. The reports will continue to signal a recovery right up to the November election.
Figures don't lie, but liars figure. · 1 minute ago
I see no reason to distrust the Bureau of Labor Statistics...
Jan '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
michael kelley:
In the real world, an Obama doesn't get credit for a blip in jobs just as a George Bush doesn't rightly get the blame for the implosion in the residential real estate market. · 4 minutes ago
Thanks for the comment, Michael! I agree with you that Obama shouldn't get [all the] credit and Bush shouldn't [all the] get blame, but don't they?
Oct '10
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Gridlock has very, very good for the economy.
But in general, we should never underestimate the ability of a mostly free economy to overcome the obstacles that politicians erect and the headwinds they create. Entrepreneurs and investors and managers are not sitting around waiting for the Obama Presidency to end. They are vigorously pursuing profits, and thank goodness for it.
Edited on Feb 3 at 11:26amOct '10
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Tristan Abbey
Aaron Miller: Rush talked about this today. As he said, this is completely predictable. The reports will continue to signal a recovery right up to the November election.
Figures don't lie, but liars figure. · 1 minute ago
I see no reason to distrust the Bureau of Labor Statistics... · 1 minute ago
You actually mean that?
Jan '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Good point, Todd! Let's suppose in September the GOP nominee is debating Barack Obama and the question posed is: How can "Obamanomics" be failing if the unemployment rate has dropped from near 10% to under 8% and that 200k+ jobs are being created each year? Conservative economic policy simply wouldn't have predicted this.
What should our nominee say in response?
Jan '12
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
I think Tristan's question isn't whether the statistics are trustworthy or not, but rather: how does Mitt or any other candidate present his case in light of the figures?
I think of it this way: Republicans probably doubt the validity of the numbers, Democrats don't; but both of those groups have already decided on whom they are voting for. The play is for our guy to address the 10% in the middle saying, 'yes there is some sign of slight recovery, but here's why I would make the recovery come faster and last longer: I'm not passing an un-payable burden to the next generation.'
That's a harder argument to make than, 'our economy is in the toilet vote for a change in regime', but numbers like these have to be discussed with the independents in mind.
Jan '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
raycon
Tristan Abbey
I see no reason to distrust the Bureau of Labor Statistics... · 1 minute ago
You actually mean that? · 2 minutes ago
I'm afraid so, Ray. The acting commissioner of the BLS has been there since 1988.
Jan '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Exactly, Chris! Is it possible the argument is simply impossible? ;-)