Turkey Goes to the Polls
Copenhagen is a beautiful city, but man, what am I doing in a Copenhagen airport lounge while this is happening?
From someone on the ground--someone consistently worth reading--here's an analysis from Aengus Collins:
And so we come to 2011 and a set of elections that with almost total confidence we can predict will lead to another term in office for Mr Erdogan and the AKP. In some senses, the political environment is more depressing than at any time in the last decade. Mr Erdogan’s increasingly bombastic and divisive style of governing, coupled with what can only be described as his emergent delusions of grandeur, do not augur well. When combined with his relaxed dominance of the electoral field, they become alarming. These are not ideal background conditions for the drafting of a new constitution, as has been promised following the election.
That said, there are positive developments which should be acknowledged and fostered. Chief among these is the sense that the AKP’s political opponents are finally back in the game. Perhaps Mr Erdogan has inadvertently done Turkish democracy a favour here. By stamping hard on the military and the judiciary, he forced opponents of the AKP to channel their energies where it should have been channeled all along–into democratic politics and the business of persuading citizens of the merits of one political approach over another. A lot of time has been unnecessarily wasted. But in the years to come, this election is likely to be seen as the point at which the foundations were laid for an electoral defeat of the AKP. It won’t happen today. But it will happen.
And a point I should stress: The drama, today, is not about whether the AKP will win. It's about whether they'll win a supermajority. These are the numbers to watch for:
276 - majority: the number of seats AKP must win to govern alone.
330 - the number of seats needed to change the constitution, pending approval by referendum.
367 - supermajority: the number of seats needed to change the Turkish constitution without a referendum.
Everything here in Denmark looks fine. I'm sure I'd find something rotten if I looked for it, but I guess I'd best catch my flight. I'll tune in with you again from Zurich.
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