The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
There will be ample time to fly-speck the details of the immigration deal that eight senators just cut; and no shortage of reasons why it might flounder. What will be the penalty for undocumented immigrants who fail to register but have committed no deportable offenses? If it is short of deportation, how many will take their chance on staying in the shadows over an uncertain path to citizenship? Is the notion of a regional commission to monitor the “enforcement first” elements of the deal a prescription for gridlock? Will Democrats resist the temptation to load up a Senate bill with union organizing provisions? And how many fights will break out over the eligibility of legalized but non-citizen immigrants for government services?
My first reaction, however, is that it is a credible template for what achievable comprehensive reform might look like. I also find it smart politics for Republicans. That puts me at odds with critics who think, as Ross Douthat does, that immigration reform is an inherently flawed trap for the party. Douthat argues that facilitating a path to citizenship could only expand a voting bloc that is still prone to be Democratic-leaning, and which will likely credit Barack Obama more than Marco Rubio for a breakthrough; and that Democrats can still be expected to push for additional and likely unpalatable reforms that Republicans would only be punished by Hispanics for opposing.
It’s a pragmatic sounding argument whose first flaw is its assumption that Hispanics are the sole interested parties in the immigration debate. To the contrary, when Democrats spin Republican hostility to immigration reform as a symptom of resistance to an increasingly multicultural society, their targets include not just Latinos but suburban professionals, college educated women, and 18-29 year olds, three solid elements of Obama’s coalition who were all swing voters a decade ago. As I have argued elsewhere, Republicans underestimate the extent to which Obama’s majority has been built not just around enthusiasm for expanded government but around a cultural vision that associates liberalism with inclusiveness: immigration policy is an overlooked component of that worldview
To be sure, as Douthat notes, the 70 percent of Hispanics who backed Obama are not single issue voters motivated solely by Obama’s first term immigration record (which, after all, was largely rhetorical rather than substantive). But Douthat is surely too quick to dismiss Marco Rubio’s own observation that voters tend to tune out economic messages when they sense that a party is hostile to their interests in a more fundamental way.
Conservative skeptics of movement on immigration should not be dismissed, given the uncertainties of yesterday’s deal. But the idea that another round of opposition won’t deepen the party’s problems with voters it won or split as recently as 2004, much less harden Hispanic antipathy to the GOP, is wishful thinking.
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Aug '10
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
Inclusiveness is one thing, but putting at risk our national character and fiscal future in order to pander to voting blocs is quite another. Open borders combined with a welfare state is a recipe for disaster.
Oct '11
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
Thoughtful piece, Mr Davis, but isn't entering the country illegally a "deportable" offense?
If the police pull someone over for speeding on the highway, do they not give the driver a ticket unless they have committed some other crime? That's a flawed analogy, but my point is that entering the country illegally is, by definition, illegal. You know, not to get all nomothetic about it, but the law is the law.
Jul '10
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
Why isn't being in the country illegally a deportable offence?
Oct '10
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
The law is the law, but some laws are unjust, or just plain stupid, and laws that unreasonably restrict the opportunity for US citizens to associate with people who happen to be born in another country is both.
Edited on January 29, 2013 at 11:07pmOct '11
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
Then repeal the law.
Oct '11
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
I'm very happy, by the way, that Artur Davis is posting at Ricochet!
Feb '12
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
Do the majority of illegal immigrants from Mexico want to stay here or stop sending "tax-free" money back home to their family? Or are they willing to risk giving up the benefits they already receive (food stamps, education, state & local health care)?
I wonder if the majority of illegal immigrants want to come forward, pay a penalty, pay taxes on all earned income and go to the back of the line. I can see people that want to remain here permanently might come forward but don't they want amnesty without penalty?
If this immigration bill is dependent on volunteers coming forward I truly wonder how many will want to.
Dec '12
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
The optimism of the republican establishment surrounding this newest of a generation's worth of attempts at immigration reform has moved me to apathy. I appreciate the political ramifications, but I end up not caring, meh. The status quo or something like it will be the net result. The left wants the devotion of a dependent underclass, and the republican politicos know the forces of economic demand will continue to draw the lowest wage possible, which allows for consistent economic activity. So the principles that Rubio lays out sound great and I believe he believes them. The legislation that it will produce will allow politicians to prostitute for the camera and business to carry on. The big losers are all those who want to follow our laws and immigrate here legally and the taxpayer who has to fund the drag on culture that an undocumented working class creates.
Oh! If the republicans think they are going to grow the voting block amongst hispanic and other minorities, ha! Not going to happen. You can't compete with candy with spoiled broccoli, using Senator Rubio's analogy on the Rush Limbaugh radio show today.
Edited on January 29, 2013 at 11:29pmAug '10
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
Todd
The law is the law, but some laws are unjust, or just plain stupid, and laws that unreasonably restrict the opportunity for US citizens to associate with people who happen to be born in another country is both. · 23 minutes ago
Edited 22 minutes ago
May I ask what you are talking about when you say "laws that unreasonably restrict the opportunity for US citizens to associate with people who happen to be born in another country"? Which laws do that? I was unaware that there are laws against fraternization.
Aug '12
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
Today -and perhaps only today -I'm tired of complaining that a set group of people are stupid, closed-minded, greedy, and therefore not voting Republican.
I am cautious of any immigration deal on the grounds of it's never worked before (on any count -neither the new Republican Voters nor the enforcement appeared).
However, I trust Rubio further than I trust McCain, and I am coming to agree with Artur Davis that the Conservatives' problem is general and not sectional. If Hispanics of all types shift 5 points right, then white are also shifting right, and a 2% increase in non-white voters isn't going to be a problem.
Hey, if we can get White Working Class voters, why can't we get Hispanic working class voters? And if hardline immigration is a barrier shifting the public generally, then maybe relaxing it is a good idea. It might even make assimilation a bit easier.
I'm not signing on. At the moment I'm not persuaded either way.
But I'm willing to hear the case, and Rubio in particular has been good enough to warrant letting him make it.
May '10
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
The glaring flaw in "immigration reform" is that no matter what the law says, there is absolutely not the remotest possibility that there will be any real enforcement of border security or any other "hard" provision of the law under Barack Obama.
It will be just like 1986, the goodies will be handed out immediately. The penalties, waiting periods, border enforcement, whatever will never happen.
Obama and the Dems will be Lucy and the football to the GOP's Charlie Brown.
Isn't it a problem that we don't enforce the laws we have now? Don't enforce the border now? Haven't built the fence that has already been provided for? Do those things first, credibly, for two or more years, then start talking about regularization, amnesty, etc.
Answer the question why should people who came into the country illegally be put in line ahead of people who've been waiting for years to enter legally?
Oct '10
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
Kevin Walker
May I ask what you are talking about when you say "laws that unreasonably restrict the opportunity for US citizens to associate with people who happen to be born in another country"? Which laws do that? I was unaware that there are laws against fraternization. · 31 minutes ago
If I want to employ someone from another country, in my home or my business, immigration restrictions can prevent me from doing so.
Sep '12
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
No question this is a tough problem, but now is the best time to make a serious effort because immigration is nil. We haven't seen a bill yet, but if they can get some good border enforcement in it and mandate e-verify, then make the path to citizenship long, giving priority first to those who have gone the lawful route, well, it would be a great relief to get this done. Obama's ideas are so much more to the left than anything that could pass Congress. It seems entirely possible that they can complete the process without Obama, who will feel obliged to sign anything regarding immigration that makes it to his desk. That alone won't give him the glory.
Immigrants come from more conservative cultures than ours and come for opportunity. Once the immigration issue itself is off the table, conservatives are more in keeping with immigrant values, especially if unions start acting all protectionist.
Aug '11
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
Very thoughtful post! Are we really reforming immigration or are we dealing with illegal immigrants who are here now? What about the people who are waiting to come into the country? The people who are in the country and waiting for citizenship? I'm not against immigration, but it seems we aren't dealing with a system most people say is broken. That some immigrants are here illegally, and then made legal doesn't take any steps to fixing the system.It just seems like a lot of political theater. I'm on the fence about the proposal. But it seems to me it's amnesty in exchange for--we hope-- a few points of goodwill among some voters. This will encourage more illegal immigration; blacks without jobs will find it harder to get jobs, and surely this will add more hurt to the Obamacare situation. This isn't a reason to not do it, but the immigration proposal is being spoken of as though it's some unlimited free good.
Mar '11
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
We've been down this road before. We know what's going to happen. The same thing that happened with Reagan's Amnesty: promise proper border security and immigration enforcement in return for amnesty for current illegals aliens, all while the pro-amnesty crowd has no intention whatsoever of honoring their promises. Indeed, they plan on violating them posthaste to benefit the various parties that desire unlimited aliens. Liberal interest groups, cheap-labor businesses, etc. We'll see this cycle over and over again. Illegals cross, liberals/business cry, promises are made ("Just this once!"), amnesty is granted. The border is ignored, illegals cross... lather, rinse, repeat.
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice...
Edited on January 30, 2013 at 2:24amMay '11
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
Todd
Kevin Walker
May I ask what you are talking about when you say "laws that unreasonably restrict the opportunity for US citizens to associate with people who happen to be born in another country"? Which laws do that? I was unaware that there are laws against fraternization. · 31 minutes ago
If I want to employ someone from another country, in my home or my business, immigration restrictions can prevent me from doing so. · 2 hours ago
No they don't. Just move your home or business to their country and go crazy.
May '11
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
The reason the Dems won't ever go for enforcing the border restrictions now in return for amnesty later is because they know what they would do. They would reneg on their promise (as they have done in the past). They don't trust the Republicans to keep their word because they haven't.
May '10
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
Great to have Artur here...have yet to see anything that hasn't been well thought out and I have found most of his viewpoints worthy of my re-thinking...
Obama doesn't want an immigration deal. If he had, he would have done one in 2009 when he had both houses in Congress. He just wants to keep beating Republicans with the stick of "nativist" and "racist" tendencies, as evidence by GOP rejection of immigration reform. Look, Italians were once the "illegal immigrants" in our history. (WOP stood for "without passport" when they were apprehended) I lived it south Florida when the Haitian were flooding in. I say get em in the door and make them legally resident so they can pay taxes, SS, Medicare, like the rest of us. They are already reaping the benefits; it's time for them to pay their "fair share."
And let Rubio lead the way...
Edited on January 30, 2013 at 6:00amFeb '11
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
I agree with Marco Rubio about one thing- voters tend to tune out economic messages when they sense that a party is hostile to their interests in a more fundamental way.
My problem is that I see the GOP in that role. There is already one amnesty/open borders party. We don't need another. I suspect this plan will wreck Marco Rubio's presidential aspirations, do nothing to win Hispanic or other voters to the GOP, and cause yet more people to give up on the party.
I find it fascinating to see yet another "reform" plan that boils down to amnesty now, promises later. George Bush attempted to force a similar down the throat of the GOP while he was president, and did enormous perhaps mortal damage to the party.
The real sticking point is border security. I bet if George Bush had acted on border security in his "reform" plan he would have passed it rather easily. But no, because business interests want an endless supply of cheap labor so border security is the one thing that they fight against, tooth and nail.
Yet again the GOP is surrendering to the left in exchange for nothing.
Pitiful.
Oct '10
Re: The Wishful Thinking of the GOP's Immigration Reform Skeptics
Pilli
No they don't. Just move your home or business to their country and go crazy. · 14 hours ago
Wow. That's something I would expect to hear from a left wing statist. "Don't like our taxes, regulations...move elsewhere."