The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Over at NationalJournal.com, former Bush 43 and Schwarzenegger advisor Matthew Dowd describes the three factors that, in his estimation, could do in Barack Obama in 2012: a poor economy, continued overseas crises, and a charismatic Republican challenger.
There’s a fourth variable – the ever-changing nature of the presidency (it changed under Hoover in 1932, Carter in 1980, and Bush 41 in 1992) – but that’s another discussion for another day.
But rather than waste your time speculating on the circumstances involved in unseating an incumbent president – good luck predicting this nation’s health and other nations’ mischief 19 months from now – I’d like you to engage in something far more empirical: presidential mathematics.
Specifically, I want you to go to this site – www.270towin.com – and chart the Republicans’ most efficient path to 270 electoral votes.
Setting the interactive map to 2012 numbers (remember, we’ve had a census since the last election, so the 2008 numbers no longer apply), start with Obama carrying the same states as last time. That translates to 359 electoral votes for the president (down from 365 in 2008), and 179 for the generic Republican.
I’ve been tinkering with the map, figuring how and where to turn blue states red, and here’s my scenario for a GOP win in 2012:
First, I believe Obama loses three states on the natural: Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia. Obama carried the Hoosier State by less than 1% in 2008 (while incumbent Gov. Mitch Daniels was re-elected in a landslide). As for Virginia and North Carolina, Obama will be hard-pressed to win back 2008’s benefit-of-the-doubt independents since disillusioned by deficit spending, healthcare and an unsteady presidential demeanor.
Subtract those three states and their combined 39 electoral votes and it’s now Obama 320, Republican 218.
Now, take a look at the rest of the country, and tell me where the GOP finds another 52 electoral votes.
I see three opportunities:
The Western trio of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. A total of 20 electoral votes.
The Upper Midwest semi-circle of (moving clockwise) Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio. A total of 50 electoral votes.
Florida. 29 electoral votes.
What this tells me is there’s a decidedly pragmatic choice for the next GOP ticket. And that would be Mitch Daniels as the presidential nominee, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio as his running mate (and, to answer your first question: no, I’m not on either gentleman’s payroll).
Why is Daniels-Rubio a pragmatic choice? Again, take a look at the 270towin.com map. Directly in the middle of the Midwestern semi-circle of swing states is . . . Indiana. As for Florida and its potential influence on national elections, enough said.
Of course, this scenario might not play out if Daniels opts not to run. And the idea of a first-term senator elevated to national office? It could never happen in this day and age (he said, sarcastically, thinking back to 2008).
So please, go ahead and fiddle with the map. Reshuffle the electoral deck. And, if you come up with a better, easier scenario, by all means share it with us.
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May '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
CO, NV, and NM are probably lost. They didn't fall in the Tea Party mid-terms. Florida and Ohio are ours to lose. WI and MI will be tough, but doable. That's really enough. The rest will be gravy. As long as it's not a wingnut ticket, we win.
Jun '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Rubio would be very smart to accept a VP spot on the ticket even if that ticket loses he retains his Senate seat and positions himself very well as the presumptive candidate for 2016 and a voice for the Party.
The top of the ticket is still problematic and despite the best calculus on state or regional favorite sons, my own feeling is that the Presidential candidate needs to transcend and rise above any regional pigeon-holing. In today's politics, I think a candidate that is too much associated with a particular state or region actually may prove to be a liability not an asset.
Regarding the 270towin.com map cited...is this really accurate and based on latest census data and the fact that some state houses and governors' seats have changed to the R column - the latter point being significant because districts are being redrawn prior to the 2012 election?
Jul '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Bill Whalen
Now, take a look at the rest of the country, and tell me where the GOP finds another 52 electoral votes.
I see three opportunities:
The Western trio of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. A total of 20 electoral votes.
The Upper Midwest semi-circle of (moving clockwise) Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio. A total of 50 electoral votes.
Florida. 29 electoral votes.
Seems to me that Pawlenty does the same thing at the top of the ticket, while also putting MN in play.
Mar '11
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Fill in your favorite Republican. If gas is sneaking up on $5 a gallon in November 2012, Spongebob Squarepants beats Obama. I think Spongebob might be a Libertarian, though...
Nov '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Marco Rubio confirmed this week during a speech he made in Miami that he has no intention of running for any executive office in 2012 and that for the good for his constituents, he intends to focus upon "being the best senator I can be."
Let's move past this fantasy of Marco in 2012. He'll be ready in 2016, but not before then.
Jun '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Elizabeth Dunn: Marco Rubio confirmed this week during a speech he made in Miami that he has no intention of running for any executive office in 2012 and that for the good for his constituents, he intends to focus upon "being the best senator I can be."
Let's move past this fantasy of Marco in 2012. He'll be ready in 2016, but not before then. · Apr 1 at 1:58pm
Politics is the art of the possible and sometimes politicians change their minds for the good of the country versus the good of their particular state. Florida's governor could easily appoint another Republican to serve out the remainder of Rubio's term should he be elected. If I was the only conservative engaging in this "fantasy" I might move past it...but you may want to tell that to a lot of other conservators who commentate and ruminate on this sort of thing for a living.
Nov '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Elizabeth Dunn: Marco Rubio confirmed this week during a speech he made in Miami that he has no intention of running for any executive office in 2012 and that for the good for his constituents, he intends to focus upon "being the best senator I can be."
Let's move past this fantasy of Marco in 2012. He'll be ready in 2016, but not before then. · Apr 1 at 1:58pm
Right on. Besides, why would a true principled conservative like Rubio want to team up with an unprincipled sometimes guy like Daniels?
See Noemie Emery, For 2012 GOP’s Best Hope May Be Losing
Mar '11
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
I agree that Marco Rubio would be a good VP choice, no matter who the P nominee is.
I know this is sacrilege @ Ricochet, but I am not inspired by Mitch Daniels, and think he has no chance of beating our current smart-creased P, no matter which fancy website says so.
If I suggest Sarah Palin for P I am labeled a Fan, so I am liking Michele Bachmann more (though I have trouble spelling her name) - even Jennifer Rubin likes her, from her recent 2-part Interview. Clearly, Bachmann (like Palin - haha) is misunderestimated (Ricochet's spell check regards that as a spelling error).
We have to get over the fact that any good potential conservative candidate will be labeled as stupid by our opponents - if they don't do that with Daniels it is a sure sign that they think he is gonna lose - kinda like McCain (well, he was labeled senile).
Nov '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Brian Watt, I would tell a lot of those conservators "ruminating about it for a living," that one of the core principles cons and tea partiers should be upholding is this: the presidency or vice-presidency is a serious job requiring experience and (to quote Rubio) a "little seasoning." We've all witnessed the rookie disasters of Carter and BHO, although I would never equate Marco with those two cretins.
I do have a strategy for the 2012 race, but am still working on the nerve to post it. It will be an unpopular one here at Rico, to say the least...
Mar '11
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Rick Perry/ Allen West. ( accompanied by theme music to " Rocky ")
Jun '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Don't count New Mexico out. Veteran congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) has already announced her intention to run for the senate seat of retiring Jeff Bingaman (D). She served multiple terms in the House, and she's very popular. She'll bring out the Republicans en masse and many independents. We also have an Hispanic woman recently elected as governor in Susanna Martinez. Put Rubio on the ballot and New Mexico swings red.
Mar '11
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Elizabeth,
Biden is experienced and well-seasoned - how's that working out? - I think the disasters of Carter and BHO have more to do with their ideology than their lack of experience (although the two are related).
The main problem with Rubio is that he does not consider himself ready - but has he thought about what kinda country we will be when he is ready in 2016? I'm also a little worried by his Libya pronouncement.
Dale,
Excellent choice! (without the music) - though West also doesn't consider himself ready - oh, well...
Nov '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Did you read latest NR cover story on Perry? He is truly a force of nature! Now, there's a cowboy with some "seasoning."
Unfortunately, there appears to be a Hatfields vs. McCoys feud between the current Guv and the Bush clan, Hughes, Spelling, Rove and the Cheneys.
Nov '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
David, Geez, he's been in office for less than 3 months but has already gone after that pitiful excuse for a budget proposed by the Dems. He's hitting the road running...
Edited on April 2, 2011 at 1:45amJun '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Elizabeth - Please keep in mind I'm not speaking of Rubio as a potential POTUS candidate but only a potential VP candidate, so the reference about POTUS experience to Carter and BHO does not apply. Today, of course Rubio doesn't want to present himself as a VP candidate for fear of looking like an opportunist who only wanted to be senator as a stepping-stone to the VP slot. This issue doesn't surface again until roughly 14 months from now AFTER the major primaries when the Republican frontrunner is determined and when or if that candidate approaches Rubio and presents a compelling case for victory if he joins the ticket rather than another choice...and provided a) that Rubio sees this as something he's willing to do for the good of the country because the Republican governor can put another Republican in his Senate seat, and b) that nothing unforeseen happens to derail Rubio's career until then. Rubio will then need to decide what he wants to do.
May '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Palaeologus
The Upper Midwest semi-circle of (moving clockwise) Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio. A total of 50 electoral votes.
Florida. 29 electoral votes.
Seems to me that Pawlenty does the same thing at the top of the ticket, while also putting MN in play. · Apr 1 at 1:52pm
Pawlenty/Rubio is as perfect a ticket as we could hope for. Quiet competence at the top; youthful spark at the bottom; geographically on the money; some immigrant flavor; appealing to Tea Partiers, social cons, and peace-thru-strengthers alike (so no Republican civil war); and none of this tiresome will-he-or-won't-he-run speculation--Pawlenty wants to be president, and Marco would jump on the VP role.
An absolute nightmare for Dems. What's not to love?
Dec '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Daniels may be able to win the general election. I have some doubts he can win the nomination.
Reagan's majority conservative coalition was comprised of three main constituencies (with much overlapping) -- fiscal/libertarian conservatives, national security/defense conservatives, and social conservatives. Daniels has made statements that could drive away primary voters in two of those groups -- social and defense. This brings both his judgment as a politician and his ability to form a majority coalition into question.
Also, Daniels seems bland as a leader and lacks charisma. Further, he was unable to get his own majority Republican legislature on the same page on some state legislation. Lastly, he may not want the Presidency bad enough to campaign hard enough, and his wife doesn't seem to want any part of campaigning.
Daniels says the right things about resolving the nation's fiscal mess, and he has an impressive fiscal record in Indiana, but this may not be enough to both get the nomination and win the general election.
Rubio has only been a Senator for a few months and has little experience. He is better off staying in the Senate until 2016. I think he knows this.
Edited on April 2, 2011 at 1:24amNov '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Brian- But of course, it applies. Certainly, Al Gore (tho it pains me to admit this) and the venerable Dick Cheney contributed an added value to the VP position. The biggest concern about Palin in 2008 (shared by both parties, I may add ) was God Forbid McCain Dies and Leaves Palin in Charge.
I believe Republican voters, and rightfully so, look to the VP to stand as a person of experience, gravitas and a defender of our national security.
Edited on April 2, 2011 at 1:38amOct '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
I just don't see 2012 as being a usual election year where the conventional wisdom applies. Would having a VP on the ticket from Florida guarantee you carry Florida? Well, it might help, but not unless the ticket clearly advocates policies which appeal to the interests of voters in that state, who are not even remotely all retirees. And that can be done without a VP candidate from that state.
Granted, the financial crisis is already clamant and compounding into calamity, but by November 2012 the wages of neglect and fecklessness on the international stage will be making the headlines as well, and there will be a need for gravitas in foreign policy on the ticket to close the sale.
My bet: Daniels and Bolton. Replace the top of the ticket with Pawlenty or Barbour and it works pretty much the same. Swap-outs for Bolton? Not sure: maybe Powell, but I'm not sure he'd be interested at this point in his life.
Jun '10
Re: The Road to Electoral Victory 2012: Daniels/Rubio
Elizabeth Dunn
Brian- But of course, it applies. Certainly, Al Gore (tho it pains me to admit this) and the venerable Dick Cheney contributed an added value to the VP position. The biggest concern about Palin in 2008 (shared by both parties, I may add ) was God Forbid McCain Dies and Leaves Palin in Charge.
I believe Republican voters, and rightfully so, look to the VP to stand as a person of experience, gravitas and a defender of our national security. · Apr 1 at 4:37pm
Edited on Apr 01 at 04:38 pm
Yeah, well many VPs didn't have foreign policy experience but relied on their reserve of history and common sense or the examples of their predecessors - Truman, TR, Coolidge, Nixon (for all his other issues - he was rather astute in foreign policy). I have absolutely no doubt that Rubio in the VP position will comport himself most adequately and be able to contribute a considerable deal to the office.