Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
I know, I know, President Obama wasting other people’s money? Just doesn’t sound like the guy.
There’s been a lot of talk in the press about how Obama has spent a lot of money on ads defining Romney in swing states, and about Romney’s relatively small presence on air:
And there is another place where his presence is oddly lacking: in the television ad wars.
Despite what appears to be a plump bank account and an in-house production studio that cranks out multiple commercials a day, Mr. Romney’s campaign has been tightfisted with its advertising budget, leaving him at a disadvantage in several crucial states as President Obama blankets them with ads.
There’s just one important thing overlooked here . . . there is very good evidence that while campaign ads can have a big impact on voters, the effect is extremely short-lived. The best evidence we have is that the impact on the most persuadable voters lasts only for a few days or a week at the most.
Now, for voters who are much more knowledgeable, there’s evidence that any impact from ads and new information sticks around. But those are the voters who are hardest to move. After all, they already know a lot about politics and the campaign, and they are more likely to have ideological convictions and identify strongly with a party.
If Romney or Obama are advertising at all right now, they should be trying to target high-information voters with relatively detailed information that actually might be news to them, not gauzy platitudes and general promises or accusations.
Fortunately, Obama seems to have blown more money than Romney on largely worthless campaign ads too far out from the elections to matter. Unfortunately, Romney hasn’t made any kind of detailed pitch early on to those relatively informed voters with whom it might make a difference. And Romney is still blowing a bunch of money airing ads that won’t make a lick of difference in November.
Hopefully Romney will keep most of his powder dry until the last few weeks, when campaign advertising will actually help win the election.
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Comments:
Sep '12
Re: Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
Have you looked at the 2010 California Senate race? My impression, from being actively involved and watching that race closely, was of a different dynamic. After winning her primary, Carly Fiorina was polling relatively close to the incumbent, Barbara Boxer. However, she didn't have the money to match Boxer, so her campaign went pretty dark until the final stretch. During that dark period, Boxer and her allies plastered the airwaves with negative ads, which pulled Fiorina well below Boxer in the polls. Once she did start airings ads again, it seemed like the damage had been done, and she was unable to climb back up. All of that seems to fly in the face of what you're saying. Is my impression of that race wrong?
Aug '12
Re: Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
View from the Ground in Texas: Obama is sure putting a lot of ads on the air here, which classifies as wasted money, no doubt. Romney is not putting a lot of ads on the air here, which would also be wasted money. The state is as less likely to go for Obama than Oregon is to go for Romney. So, advantage Romney on wise campaign spending here.
Re: Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
EvlMdnghtBmr . . . I definitely can imagine exceptions to these findings, and perhaps for challengers or unknowns especially. But in CA, Fiorina was working against the partisan grain of the state and ended up losing 52/42 . . . decent for CA, isn't it? The studies seem to show that most voters, and especially the ones most impacted by ads, really don't retain the information past a week or so.
If Boxer put up ads early and kept them there, then we'd expect that they'd have an impact and that would be sustained through continued advertising. When Fiorina went up with her ads, she could have had plenty of time but a) less effective ads, b) an audience that was primed to be more receptive to the Democratic message (seems likely given the composition of CA), c) been outspent by Boxer, or c) some combination of all of these.
Advertising can and does have different relative impacts with different voters, so it might simply have been the case that Fiorina's ads weren't working because of the contemporary Boxer ads, not because Boxer had been advertising early.
Aug '12
Re: Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
My impression of the '96 presidential campaign was that all summer long Clinton spent large sums on advertising which successfully cast Dole as unimpressive. Dole did not respond until the "traditional" compaign season and never made a dent in that impression.
Of course, Dole wasn't all that impressive.... Or do I believe that because of all the negative advertising? Some of it came from the Republicans: Dole, because it's MY turn!
Feb '11
Re: Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
1984 NC Senate race, Jesse Helms (Republican) vs. Jim Hunt (Democrat).
Hunt is ahead in the polls by double digits in the summer. Helms puts up negative ads against Hunt, which Hunt doesn't answer. Almost everybody in the state knows who both Helms and Hunt are as a majority have voted for both of them at one time or another. The only ones who don't are moving in from out of state and are likely to vote for Hunt because Helms has never gotten their grandmother's social security check sorted out.
Hunt doesn't go up with advertising until after Labor Day. The polls have closed thanks probably to the negative advertising plus Reagan is going to blow Mondale out of the water in NC. There are definitely coattails involved. Helms wins.
The point is unanswered advertising that paints you a certain way -- even if the voters know you -- can be deadly.
Edited on September 20, 2012 at 10:13pmRe: Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
Hang On:
The point is unanswered advertising that paints you a certain way -- even if the voters know you -- can be deadly. · 4 minutes ago
Edited 3 minutes ago
I definitely agree that a one-sided information flow will be a huge problem . . . the question is, do you have to answer 2 months out? Will it matter on election day? Or can you save your cash and answer just before absentee voting starts? The studies suggest it's better to wait, and then you'd have the advantage of a cash advantage, which means potential domination of the airwaves during the only time that matters.
Presidential elections are a bit tricky, since advertising is almost certainly going to be saturation . . . but I think it is far, far better to spend as much as possible in the final weeks using as many different media as possible to get your message in front of voters when it matters.
Sep '12
Re: Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
It seems like all the comments are coming up with different examples of the same dynamic. So Adam, if I'm understanding you correctly, your answer is that (all else being equal), an early negative barrage can have a short-term effect, but it requires the candidate being able to bring sufficient resources to bear to sustain the barrage through election day to keep their opponent down? For example, in the Boxer case, if she'd shot her entire campaign war chest by early October, we might have seen Fiorina rise back in the polls, but since Boxer maintained her money advantage through election day, Fiorina was never able to claw her way back up?
Oct '10
Re: Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
Maybe Romney can slip in a few more 'hidden camera' between now and November to save some ad money.
One could have him saying he expects parents to <gasp!> be more responsible for their children's education, instead of leaving it completely up to the teacher's union. This video will be emailed from an account named FDRIII@hotmail.com
Another could have him saying the best way to bend the health care cost curve is for people to <eek!> take responsibility for their own health care costs. This video will be emailed from an account named LuciBainesJohnson@hotmail.com
Re: Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
Richard Finlay: My impression of the '96 presidential campaign was that all summer long Clinton spent large sums on advertising which successfully cast Dole as unimpressive. Dole did not respond until the "traditional" compaign season and never made a dent in that impression.
Of course, Dole wasn't all that impressive.... Or do I believe that because of all the negative advertising? Some of it came from the Republicans: Dole, because it's MY turn! · 15 minutes ago
Yes, I'd put my money on the fundamental fact that Dole was a deeply uninspiring and terrible candidate. Bubba probably didn't need to advertise at all :).
Re: Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
Right . . . it seems counter-intuitive, but I think of it a bit like putting your thumb on a scale. Voters have some baseline probability of voting Republican/Democrat connected to fundamentals about themselves, the current situation (economy, etc). In flies new information from an ad, and maybe it puts an extra bit of weight on that "vote Democrat" side of the scale. But that information isn't very important to them or memorable . . . it fades quickly and the scale returns to its baseline.
Aug '10
Re: Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
This is the sort of article I live for, about the practical nitty-gritty details of campaign tactics on-the-ground.
I'm a campaign management junkie.
Keep 'em coming.
Feb '11
Re: Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
Adam Schaeffer, Guest Contributor
Hang On:
The point is unanswered advertising that paints you a certain way -- even if the voters know you -- can be deadly. · 4 minutes ago
Edited 3 minutes ago
Presidential elections are a bit tricky, since advertising is almost certainly going to be saturation . . . but I think it is far, far better to spend as much as possible in the final weeks using as many different media as possible to get your message in front of voters when it matters. · 24 minutes ago
I think that is very important -- in as many different media -- because everybody is obsessing on television. Radio can be far more effective and then is under the radar. Gov. Perdue of NC used advertising in the last week on the radio against her opponent in eastern NC comparing him to a Mexican -- mayor of Tijuana (he was actually mayor of Charlotte). It would have caused a huge backlash in the urban parts of the state had it been known.
The thing about 1984 was that Helms never lacked for money so he could spend in the summer. He raised money in 6-year cycles and began the day after the election.
May '12
Re: Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
Adam-
Are you discounting those folks that vote early or absentee? It would seem that the ads need to peak by at least mid-October to catch those voters.
What % vote early or absentee?
Jul '10
Re: Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
I think there is another dynamic working here. If a candidate is solid, has a particular policy, and a good record, he can campaign solidly on what he is. Obama has a policy, but his record is abysmal - in the economy, foreign affairs, education, energy, jobs - you name it. So I suspect he is throwing things against the wall to see if anything sticks, as he has nothing else to campaign on.
Romney is an unknown. BUT he has a reputation of being a solid businessman, and he is at least known for his work in the Olympics. His problems is simpler - keep the electorate focused. His other problem is that he doesn't seem to be as nimble on his feet, else he could have converted his "revelation" video into a solid +. He didn't do badly, but it could have been better. Hopefully he is learning. There is less than 2 months to go, and nothing is going to happen that will save Obama's record. It is only a question of getting enough spotlight on that to win.
May '11
Re: Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
I don't think there are any voters who have not already made up their mind and if I were Romney I would save all my money to use for ads after the debates to mitigate the effect of the inevitable gaffe he will make.
Aug '10
Re: Obama is Wasting His Campaign Funds (and Romney Too)
I have my doubts about how effective these ads are in a national election. First, I'm not even sure how many people watch these ads anymore. With DVRs, dual cable boxes (with people switching channels during commercials), the MUTE button, and people being jaded in general, how much attention do people really watch these commercials? I bet more people watch them when they are on the news when they are critiqued, then anything else. I do think they were effective during the primaries, however. During the primaries, the people paying attention were die hard Republicans trying to figure out who they wanted. They probably trusted commercials by fellow Republicans more than independents would of either party. And generally speaking, these commercials (both Republican and Democrat) have given people the general idea that Romney is a rich business man who takes over hurting companies and sells the pieces and profits from them, workers be damned. And pop culture (SNL, late shows, etc.) has amplified this to be conventional wisdom. I don't know what Romney can do to fight that back now other than to hit several grand slams during the debates. I wish him luck!