Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
That’s according to ABC News. Without having dived into the polling data, I am pretty sure that Minnesota will cast its electoral votes for the president, though Pennsylvania may be a closer case; it has remained on Romney’s radar for a while. But think of this: If two states once thought to be reliably blue are thinking of going red, how much ground might the president be losing in other places?
I think the momentum is clearly with Romney, but I have a confession to make. While I certainly don’t believe that the president will achieve the margin of victory suggested here, I do think–and this is based on having gone through a number of scenarios–that Barack Obama has more paths to 270 electoral votes than Mitt Romney does, which would suggest that the president is more likely to win. So I guess that the only thing that I can say to readers who want Romney to win is this: Prove me wrong.
Make sure to get out to vote. Tell your friends to get out to vote. Tell your family to get out to vote. Volunteer for the Romney campaign. Make calls. Donate money if possible. Make me eat crow on November 7th.
I’ll be happy to do it. It will be delicious.
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Jul '12
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
How many times has PA and OR treated the GOP POTUS candidate like Lucy with the football fools Charlie Brown? I will believe it when I see it.
Edited on October 30, 2012 at 7:00pmMay '12
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
It is interesting, but just political theatre. If Obama wins by 1 vote in either state or 1 million it doesn't matter and he still has a much easier path to the electoral college victory.
Close only counts in hand grenades, horseshoes, and tactical nukes.
May '10
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
I think the third-party candidate Dems Stayhome will play a pivotal part in this election.
Aug '10
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
I actually hate coming to Ricochet anymore. The articles are so depressing!
Mar '12
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
If Romney wins Minnesota and Pennsylvania, he will surely win Wisconsin and Ohio for a blow out. MN and PA are just icing on the cake. The focus should stay on OH and WI.
Jun '10
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
Living in MN, I think there is a slim chance of Romney carrying the state. However, Bush only lost MN by about 3 points in 2004, so it is possible. And we have a marriage amendment and voter id law on the ballot, which has definitely fired up elements of the conservative base.
Oct '12
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
Cat is right, as is Pejman. Obama supporters would love to have Romney waste his time in PA.
Aug '10
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
The recent MN Star Tribune poll was +5 D so a strong GOP turnout could put the state in Romney's column.
More troubling for Obama should be the fact that he can't crack 47% in this poll.
Jun '12
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
That 47% number keeps showing up, doesn't it? (wink, nod)
Apr '11
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
Romney is campaigning in Florida tomorrow. That looks pretty bad.
Jul '11
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
All of sillies can smile now. Romney will win this election. He will narrowly win Ohio and Wisconsin. Romney is not only campaigning in Florida but picking up a very large check or three in person.
Aug '10
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
Why? Let's face it, the rest of the country watches the storm damage and may say a prayer or two for those affected but by and large it's business as usual. Romney took a couple of days off campaigning, that's plenty.
You think anyone in NY loses sleep when the power goes out here in flyover country?
Edited on October 31, 2012 at 12:14amSep '10
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
If the only admissible evidence in the case is the RCP average of polls, then pessimism is justified. If on the other hand you find the argument persuasive that Democratic turnout advantage can not possibly be as high as the crosstabs in the vast majority of those polls have it, then you will reach a different conclusion.
Myself, I find most of the polls absurd based on their presumed D/R ratio. I also cannot ignore all the evidence, both anecdotal and poll-based, that in fact Romney supporters are far more enthusiastic than the bitter Obama-clingers. To me, this smells like... victory.
Apr '11
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
Frozen Chosen
Why? Let's face it, the rest of the country watches the storm damage and may say a prayer or two for those affected but by and large it's business as usual. Romney took a couple of days off campaigning, that's plenty.
You think anyone in NY loses sleep when the power goes out here in flyover country? · 10 minutes ago
Edited 10 minutes ago
I mean that Florida should be locked down and not need a visit.
Apr '11
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
Bruce in Marin:
Myself, I find most of the polls absurd based on their presumed D/R ratio. I also cannot ignore all the evidence, both anecdotal and poll-based, that in fact Romney supporters are far more enthusiastic than the bitter Obama-clingers. To me, this smells like... victory. · 56 minutes ago
The polls don't have a "presumed D/R ratio." Only Rasmussen and IBD/TIPP weight by party id.
Jun '12
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
I think if Romney wanted to win Minnesota, he'd have Ryan visit with Santorum. Santorum and Paul were the only two candidates we were enthusiastic about.
Apr '11
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
Pejman Yousefzadeh:
Make sure to get out to vote. Tell your friends to get out to vote. Tell your family to get out to vote. Volunteer for the Romney campaign. Make calls. Donate money if possible. Make me eat crow on November 7th.
I’ll be happy to do it. It will be delicious. · · 6 hours ago
Pejman, if you decide to effect a real difference and make campaign calls, could I ask you to report back here on how it goes? There's a ton of people who want to help, but feel nervous about it. As a respected figure, your modelling correct behavior and demonstrating that it's not scary would be helpful.
Apr '11
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
wmartin
Frozen Chosen
Why? Let's face it, the rest of the country watches the storm damage and may say a prayer or two for those affected but by and large it's business as usual. Romney took a couple of days off campaigning, that's plenty.
You think anyone in NY loses sleep when the power goes out here in flyover country? · 10 minutes ago
Edited 10 minutes ago
I mean that Florida should be locked down and not need a visit. · 15 minutes ago
We're mildly ahead in Florida, but it makes sense to turn a 75% chance into an 80% chance if it takes a day or two. If we focus exclusively on offense we could take Pennsylvania and lose the race. Florida has ego, and Mitt can't be seen to abandon it.
Apr '11
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
I would keep Rick Santorum as far away as possible. We really don't need his tons of baggage in the last week.
Apr '11
Re: Minnesota and Pennsylvania Now “Lean” Obama
James Of England
wmartin
I mean that Florida should be locked down and not need a visit. · 15 minutes ago
We're mildly ahead in Florida, but it makes sense to turn a 75% chance into an 80% chance if it takes a day or two. If we focus exclusively on offense we could take Pennsylvania and lose the race. Florida has ego, and Mitt can't be seen to abandon it. · 14 minutes ago
If that's where we actually are in Florida, I am relieved. Just for the record, what is your sense of Ohio (if you have one)? I would like to see something other than Rasmussen and claims of internal polling showing us with a lead.