Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
You'll be able to see all this for yourself when the show airs, of course, but I just came across another note from my Uncommon Knowledge interview yesterday with Charles Moore, Margaret Thatcher's biographer, that I thought pertinent to this very hour.
Charles and I were discussing the miner's strike of 1984. A bitter confrontation, the strike lasted nearly a year--and, we now know, Arthur Scargill, the Marxist leader of the National Union of Mineworkers, was receiving financial support from the Soviet Union. When the union at last backed down, Mrs. Thatcher's victory broke the power of unions to dictate national economic policy once and for all, reversing, at all but a single stroke, Britain's long economic decline.
The outcome, I noted, was hardly preordained. When the NUM had struck in 1973, it had forced the then prime minister, Edward Heath, to reverse his free market policies, leading to the defeat of Heath's Conservative government a year later. Charles replied with a startling observation, mentioning an event I'd forgotten.
The miners' union forced Mrs. Thatcher herself to back down, too. When it went on strike in 1981, she backed down, giving the union essentially what it wanted. She was unprepared for a fight in 1981 and she knew it. Before the strike in 1984, she got ready. She secretly stockpiled coal, converted certain power plants to run on diesel oil, and arranged for convoys of lorries [truckers] to transport coal if the railroad workers went on strike in sympathy with the miners.
Indomitable though she certainly was, in other words, Margaret Thatcher picked her fights--and made tactical capitulations, when she knew she must, to pursue the larger victory.
Fight when you're ready--and when you believe you can win.
Does anyone join me in supposing that that lesson from Margaret Thatcher might have an application to the present debate on the debt ceiling?
- Comment (29)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (2)
- Pages:
- 1
- 2
- Pages:
- 1
- 2
Comments :
May '11
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
Yeah, you would think that the Rebumblicans in Washington would have seen this train wreck coming.
Jul '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
I think the debt limit demonstrates a psychological difference between conservatives and liberals. The former are unruly, sometimes a fault of individualism, and find it difficult to march in formation even if it is in their interest. The latter obediently march in lock step to advance the hive goal. I wouldn't be surprised to see them discern racism driving this issue.
Edited on Jul 15, 2011 at 2:47pmNov '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
Absolutely. Although the many Republicans haven't been as prepared as Lady Thatcher was. I recall reading Claire Berlinski's book that the government started stockpiling coal way ahead of the strike dates and made other preparations. Everyone has known this debt ceiling thing was coming and it seems to me the House could have had commercials and bills ready to roll out in an offensive manner rather then conducing the whole debate like trench warfare.
Edited on Jul 15, 2011 at 2:49pmJul '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
Do the Republicans enter the election as a credible opposition party if they give on the debt ceiling without real and immediate concessions? Or will they just be the other party of Washington?
Jan '11
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
When I first heard the strategy that we would use the debt ceiling fight to force spending cuts, I thought it was a mistake. At the same moment they were trying to extract concessions from Obama, they were openly admitting that they were eventually going to raise the debt ceiling anyway.
I thought, don't make a threat you don't intend to carry out, and especially don't tell them you don't intend to carry it out.
But (not to pile on here) I thought that my political opinion wasn't worth much more than $3.58 anyway, and the pros knew what they were doing. Now I'm looking around and seeing everything I expected.
I posted something yesterday about Game Theory, and I stand by it. The moment the GOP entered negotiations with their concession already assured, it eliminated strategy and haggling, and became a zero-sum collision.
This was unwise from the start.
May '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
I highly recommend Sir Ian McMcGregor's "The Enemies Within". Sir Ian was a Lazard Frere partner and Scottish-American executive whom Thatcher appointed to run the National Coal Board when she knew a showdown with Scargill was inevitable. It's the only book I know of that reveals the state of socialist subversion of the trade-union movement.
Of course withe left, with their ready access to the machinery of entertainment never stops fighting this battle because they know history can go the man who has the last word. For two many people born after 1990, the issues of that strike are framed by the execrable 'Billy Elliot' - the movie and now the musical.
By the way, in one of those improbable coincidences that history throws up, McGregor not only broke the back of the UK unions but he was instrumental in the development of the Sherman tank during WWII. Fitting I think.
Dec '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
I'm inclined to accept that having only one half of one branch of government places us at a disadvantage, but that we should get all we can.
In the meantime, perhaps we can establish a Lorries For Torys program(me), so that we are prepared to haul food and fuel to seniors that don't get SS checks. Or Cops for GOPs to police our states.
Sep '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
Question:
When in the last 50 years have Republican legislators -- House or Senate -- ever been "ready"? When will they ever be "ready"?
Apr '11
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
It is does seem wise to prepare for the fight before your throw down the gauntlet. But, what kind of preperations could the GOP make for the debt ceiling fight? Fighting a union that is trying to strangle the countries energy supply to get its way seems easy to prepare for. Keep the energy pumping and they can starve to death for all any one cares. But, the debt ceiling is really about the government sending out expected money to all government debt holders, and agencies to keep from defaulting and keep things moving. There is no second government or separately funded, FDA, IRS, FBI, CIA, Army, Navy, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid. The simple fact is that the expected budget for this year calculated a debt ceiling increase. If we don't do it, the current budget that the US federal government is working under for this year is completely shot.
In a rational world the government would decide upon a ideal revenue amount, set taxes at such rates as to raise said amount, and then budget from that the various expenses of the government. If it ran short it would issue bonds to cover the short fall that year.
Oct '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
Jerry Carroll: I think the debt limit demonstrates a psychological difference between conservatives and liberals. The former are unruly, sometimes a fault of individualism, and find it difficult to march in formation even if it is in their interest. The latter obediently march in lock step to advance the hive goal. I wouldn't be surprised to see them discern racism driving this issue. · Jul 15 at 2:44pm
Edited on Jul 15 at 02:47 pm
As you predicted: here.
Oct '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
I think you're right Peter. The Republicans have thus far been pretty successful at forcing the President to make major concessions to his agenda this year. He has repudiated the budget that he sent to Congress in February and forced him to start talking about deficit reduction and spending cuts. The GOP now needs to follow through and not screw things up this late in the game. If they raise the debt ceiling enough to cover several months it would put them in a good position to fight it out on the budget come September when a new CR is needed.
Aug '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
I don't see the analogy. The "preparation" Thatcher engaged in was boots-on-the-ground logistics taking away some of the physical power of the unions. I don't see that there's anything the Republicans can stockpile to reduce our need to borrow more money.
The Republicans simply need to explain things better. The government is funded by a gusher of money flowing in continuously--it doesn't all arrive on April 15th--and its spending is another gusher of money flowing out continuously. Unfortunately, gusher #2 is about 50% bigger than gusher #1. All bumping up against the debt limit does is instantly force gusher #2 to reduce to the same size as gusher #1. What is "defaulted on" is up to the President. To the extent that the Constitution speaks to the matter, the Full Faith and Credit clause would seem to require the debt service be paid first. The only way we could default on the debt is if he chooses to, instead of cutting other things he likes better. Whatever painful cuts take place, one can always argue that "he could have cut X instead of Y." The President will be blamed.
Oct '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
Valiuth: The simple fact is that the expected budget for this year calculated a debt ceiling increase. If we don't do it, the current budget that the US federal government is working under for this year is completely shot.
In a rational world the government would decide upon a ideal revenue amount, set taxes at such rates as to raise said amount, and then budget from that the various expenses of the government. If it ran short it would issue bonds to cover the short fall that year. · Jul 15 at 3:33pm
Perhaps you might let us know what budget you are referring to. It has been over 800 days since the end of the last budget spending period... that is over two years. We do not have a budget to over spend. We simply have a cabal running the Feral government.
Nov '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
Obama wants new taxes, the House Republicans can absolutely deny him what he wants. That means they hold the cards.
He desperately needs for the Republicans to cave so he can get reelected. He expects they will because they always do.
But this time they might not. And that will be a spectacle. Maybe the first time in his life he doesn’t get his way.
It’ll be a hoot. Now and again in 2012...unless Republicans do what they usually do. Then it will be a disaster, a very long one.
Edited on Jul 15, 2011 at 9:12pmMay '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
The application to the current debate on the debt ceiling is that 2011 is 1981, not 1984. As I said in your other Thatcher post, Peter...
The illusion that most conservatives currently have is the belief that, in the event of a default, there's even one chance in a trillion that we can keep all our members unified against the President.
We can't. We'll cave as surely as night follows day. Wish it weren't so, but it is. Therefore we can't win. Therefore McConnel's the one being Thatcher-esque at the moment.
Thatcher lived in the world as it was, not as she dreamed it to be. American conservatives have got more stockpiling to do, most especially at Pennsylvania Ave., and I bet Thatcher would say exactly that if she could.
Oct '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
Peter, I’m not sure I see the analogy exactly, but I agree the Republicans did not prepare well for this fight. They underestimated the power of the presidency and over estimated the significance of the 2010 elections. Beginning with passage of the Ryan plan, there should have been a concerted public relations effort to convince the public that Social Security and Medicare are not “trust funds”, but are pay-as-you-go plans that will soon pay out more than they take in and must be reformed as part of any effort to reduce government spending. They should have gotten agreement in the House and Senate caucuses for at least two plans: what they really wanted, and what they would settle for. They shouldn’t have deviated from these during negotiations. Once the negotiations started, they should have had daily press conferences and called out the un-seriousness of the president and Democrats, who have no written or OMB scored plan to cut any program.
President Obama simply wants to spend 25% of GDP and wants revenue close to that. Given his record, the Republicans should have anticipated that. Mitch McConnell’s plan is probably the only realistic endgame.
Jun '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
Peter, the big difference is that Thatcher was head of government during all that time. Our system is much different. To be even similar the Republicans would have to have a strong person as president and both houses of Congress in a veto-proof condition.
It's not fair to expect Boehner to act Thatcheresque when the differences between them are so large.
I realize that you are emphasizing that we need to pick the correct time. But, without the levers of power that Thatcher had we will have to wait for similar powers and then, possibly, have to wait for the correct time.
Oct '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
I'll go out on a limb and offer another parallel: Munich, 1938. The conventional wisdom was appeasement, in order to avoid the horrors of war. But the statesmen parroting conventional wisdom--and the crowds supporting them--didn't want to admit what they were up against.
I think we're stuck with the equivalent of appeasement--doing anything to avoid default, for myopic economic and political reasons--even as the financial storm continues to gather.
I believe Churchill, on the eve of the Munich agreement, counseled the Czechs to "fire your guns, and the world will help you." In other words, stick to principle: defend your autonomy; don't fear the inevitable war. No-one listened to him then, but he was the one Britain turned to a year later.
That's why it's important to have some leaders who stand up and counsel sticking to principle. Though few today may acknowledge their foresight, we'll need to know whom to turn to when the first drops begin to fall.
Jun '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
The question about when and how we fight is almost too complex for analysis. You will notice that in the US it's Republican governors like Walker and Christie in the vanguard. The situation in our fifty states varies so widely that a single strategy is impossible. I suppose we can agree on one thing; the Republicans do not yet have a national leader capable of taking on the unionized members of the federal government. We need the White House for that. God willing.
May '10
Re: Maggie Chose Her Fights, Or What Would Thatcher Have Done About the Debt Ceiling?
Yes, all Marxists must be defeated — from union head office to the White House.