Last thoughts before Turkey's June 12 elections
Turkey seems calm. I went through the whole 2009 election map of Turkey last night. It seems it will be hard to unseat the AKP in much of middle and east Anatolia. However, the margins of victory and the number of MP's are another story. There I believe the race will tighten up at least little in each city. The question is what happens in the cities/provinces with the largest populations and the highest number of seats. About 75% all the votes will come from these 20 cities, and about 40% of all votes from the top five cities.
Izmir will certainly go to CHP while Bursa to AKP with Istanbul, Ankara and Adana constituting the battle grounds. It appears in Adana, the combination of CHP and MHP will double up on AKP, in Ankara, they will total about 150% of AKP while in Istanbul, they will equal or surpass the AKP. But of course, it also matters in exactly what districts they will end up winning in those cities.
In Konya, Kayseri and Kahramanmaraş, the AKP will still annihilate the opposition. But in Antalya, with CHP leading CHP-MHP will nearly double up on AKP.
In Gaziantep, the AKP will win easily while in Mersin, CHP-MHP will double up on AKP.
AKP has the edge in Izmit (Kocaeli) and Antakya (Hatay), but the race is likely to tighten with the CHP-MHP picking up votes. The same goes with Samsun.
In Manisa, Balikesir and Aydin, CHP-MHP will get 150-200% of AKP.
Van and Diyarbakir will go to the Kurdish independents by a 2 to 1 margin against the AKP. The new CHP is the wild card here, possibly challenging the AKP's position. But if the CHP does anything, it will be a bonus and not expected.
Having gone over all of this, I see that Istanbul is the key, and that race is like to tighten considerably. Especially when the MHP is taken into account.
The chances are the AKP will emerge as the top party, but the CHP-MHP combo will surpass AKP.
By the way, looking at the election map, I just realized why the PKK attack on the police convoy took place around the Kastamonu-Amasya region. The MHP seriously challenges the AKP in those cities - basically head-to-head with the CHP tilting the balance. Bastards may have staged the whole thing that killed a cop. Coincidentally one of the attackers was caught this week. More suspiciously, he surrendered... Just days before Sunday's election.
Well, there's my little examination of the nation's largest cities a day before the critical election...
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Re: Last thoughts before Turkey's June 12 elections
Thanks, Okan. Keep us updated. I'm glad things are calm. And if you want to feel optimistic, here's something always to remember: It's not Russia.
Re: Last thoughts before Turkey's June 12 elections
This is very helpful. Thanks.
Aug '10
Re: Last thoughts before Turkey's June 12 elections
Thanks, Okan.
I still feel like I don't understand Turkish politics, but at least Ricochet makes it easy for me to keep trying ;-)
Re: Last thoughts before Turkey's June 12 elections
Midget Faded Rattlesnake: Thanks, Okan.
I still feel like I don't understand Turkish politics, but at least Ricochet makes it easy for me to keep trying ;-) · Jun 11 at 9:01am
Okan, can we find that election map in English? Is there a dynamic map that we might be able to follow tomorrow in real time? It would be great to have updates from you tomorrow on Ricochet throughout the day.
Jul '10
Re: Last thoughts before Turkey's June 12 elections
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
Midget Faded Rattlesnake: Thanks, Okan.
I still feel like I don't understand Turkish politics, but at least Ricochet makes it easy for me to keep trying ;-) · Jun 11 at 9:01am
Okan, can we find that election map in English? Is there a dynamic map that we might be able to follow tomorrow in real time? It would be great to have updates from you tomorrow on Ricochet throughout the day. · Jun 11 at 9:10am
I will try to locate the map in English... but have not seen an English version of it yet.