Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
I don't know about you, folks, but this one takes me completely and utterly
by surprise. From the Wall Street Journal:
Poll: Gingrich, Romney in Dead Heat in N.H.
In the shock poll of the day, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has pulled into a statistical tie with Mitt Romney in the former Massachusetts governor’s backyard, New Hampshire.
The poll of likely Republican primary voters by Magellan Strategies for the online New Hampshire Journal shows Mr. Romney with 29% in the Granite State, within the poll’s 3.6-percentage-point margin of error over Mr. Gingrich’s 27%. Texas Rep. Ron Paul has 16% support, with former pizza company executive Herman Cain at 10%.
Astounding.
Troy Senik, you've been predicting a boom for Newt, but did even you expect Newt to pose a threat to Romney in New Hampshire?
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Dec '10
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
Common sense just became uncommon sense. Does this signal more about Newt or more about Mitt? This is to my calculations what the faster than light neutrinos were to physics a few weeks ago.
Mar '11
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
I've never understood why a State who's motto is "Live free or die" would go for a Rino squish.
If I remember rightly, Mr Murphy suggested that Newt need only be #2 in NH, so this may confound his other prediction (and Rob's) that Newt has no chance against the inevitable Mr Romney.
Edited on Nov 18, 2011 at 10:53amMay '10
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
LOL. Mr. Robinson, feel free to stop reading [balderdash] for your data. Thank you.
Edited on Nov 19, 2011 at 2:32amDec '10
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
The real question is why Mitt can't break out above 40 percent in New Hampshire, like he can't break out above 25 percent nationally. The one constant in the flux of the poll results for the non-Romneys is that as each one rises or falls, the poll results for Romney and Paul both stay stuck. It's hard to see how Romney builds his coalition at this point, given that he's had months (years, even) to draw more voters into his orbit and has failed to do so.
Nov '11
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
Good!
Because I can hold my nose and vote for Newt, but I'll never vote for Mitt. There's no clothespin big enough.
Why, you ask, will I never vote for Mitt? Because . . . well, because . . . shhhh, keep this quiet, because Mitt is not a conservative.
But really, when everything is all about who's "electable," why should I feel obliged to give a substantive reason for supporting or opposing a particular candidate? No, it seems all one is obliged to discuss is electability, as to which I submit that Mitt is not the "most electable" when there are so many conservatives, formerly stalwart GOP voters like me, who simply won't vote for him. Does not the not-Romney phenomenon make it obvious that we will not "come home" to Mitt in the general?
To whoever responds by calling me immature, unrealistic, ideological, impractical, unreasonable, suicidal, crazy, idealistic, plain stupid: Those accusations won't make me love Mitt. More to the point, those accusations imply something substantive about my thinking, whereas we are supposed to stick to talking about electability, with regard to which, I say, "This conservative ain't voting for Mitt. And I'm not alone."
Aug '11
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
With Newt, there's a chance we could keep the House and take the Senate. With Mitt . . . I don't see that happening. And given the importance of controlling Congress regardless of who wins the Presidency, I'm going with Newt.
By the way, the long knives really came out for Newt this week, didn't they? Does Mrs. Bachmann realize how much she's hurting our chances?
Mar '11
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
In the last few years, the new motto of New Hampshire has become "live tax-freer than Massachusetts," meaning there have been lots of liberal Boston transplants who have changed the character of the state considerably.
Jul '11
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
I don't really find this too surprising. Newt has performed better than Romney during most campaigning this cycle. Sure, he had the "right wing socialism" thing that turned a bunch of people off early, but he did a good enough job of walking it back, and he has been an exciting and relentless debater. Romney has been running a decent campaign which would be doing much better if it wasn't for Romneycare, but he can't get that off his back. While both have flip-flopping problems and religion problems (Newt's adultery and Mitt's Mormonism), Romney's are more immediate and lasting. It just took awhile before the ABR crowd finally got around to Newt.
-E
May '10
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
Uh, because no one breaks above 30% in a multi-candidate field? Can you show me who ever got 50% or 80% in a field with 8 candidates?
Aug '11
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
Newt is momentarily emotionally supportive to the largest minority of Republican voters but rationally unelectable by a plurality of all voters. Democracy is biased toward the emotional. The GOP's challenge is to either make the minority more rational or the plurality... less.
Mar '11
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
Mendel
In the last few years, the new motto of New Hampshire has become "live tax-freer than Massachusetts," meaning there have been lots of liberal Boston transplants who have changed the character of the state considerably.
Ah, yes, the same thing has happened here in AZ, with transplants from CA who now want to turn AZ into CA :-(
Aug '10
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
I will pull the lever for the Not-Romney when the primary comes to Louisiana.
Whatever Romney believes, it can't be in the concept of liberty given his adamant refusal to walk back Romneycare.
That said, when it is all said and done, the missus and I will throw some coinage to the Republican Nominee once the primary season is over. Since I will vote for a Syphilitic Camel over Barack Obama I will happily pull the lever for the Republican nominee in the general.
I won't donate to the RNC until they recover my share of the $600K they threw to Dede Scozzafava in the 2010 elections. (She endorsed the Democrat when the Tea Party Dude overtook her in the polls.)
Say, didn't Newt endorse that Scozzafava lady?
Mar '11
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
Astonishing:
Why, you ask, will I never vote for Mitt? Because . . . well, because . . . shhhh, keep this quiet, because Mitt is not a conservative.
I hate to break this to you, Astonishing, but neither is Mr Obama - if he wins, it will be because of people like you.
Perfect is the enemy of the Good.
Dec '10
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
David Williamson
Perfect is the enemy of the Good. · Nov 18 at 11:58am
But that doesn't necessarily make Imperfect its ally.
May '10
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
The Primary is the time for Idealism. The General is the time for Realism. Let them slug it out as long as they want. The last man standing gets my vote in the General. ABO.
Nov '11
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
David Williamson
Astonishing:
Why, you ask, will I never vote for Mitt? Because . . . well, because . . . shhhh, keep this quiet, because Mitt is not a conservative.
I hate to break this to you, Astonishing, but neither is Mr Obama - if he wins, it will be because of people like you.
Perfect is the enemy of the Good. · Nov 18 at 11:58am
Yes, do blame me. That's my point exactly: That Mitt is not electable because "people like me" won't vote for him. So you've been warned. If "people like you" insist on nominating someone "people like me" won't vote for, well, maybe that's your fault.
At least I will have the consolation of having supported an unelectable conservative, while you will have been deluded into supporting an unelectable candiate who is not conservative. You can't say I fooled you. I warned you. But if you want to blame me, fine.
BTW, I don't require the "perfect." I'd vote for Newt.
Going from Obama to Mitt is going from whiskey to beer. Better hit bottom hard fast and ugly with O than slip into the abyss quiet, passive, and polite with Mitt.
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
The person who deserves blame because conservatives may be reluctant to vote for Mitt Romney is none other than Mitt Romney himself. Had he boldly backed away from Romneycare and admitted error, he would have been called a flip-flopper. But he would not now have to defend what is indefensible: the very model for Obamacare. What he sowed, he now has to reap.
The Republicans are inclined to nominate centrists on the calculation that they will do better with the electorate than genuine conservatives. But, in recent years, that has not worked out very well -- which explains why, given the issues on the table this year, conservative voters are extremely reluctant to support Mitt Romney.
Given the weakness of the field, Romney ought to be home free by now. And yet . . .
May '10
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
This is a propaganda poll. Newt wil be last month's news in...about three weeks.
Aug '10
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
Did you learn manners in Paris? Or in Paramus?
Oh...probably in both.
Edited on Nov 19, 2011 at 2:33amSep '10
Re: Holey Moley! Newt Catches Mitt...in New Hampshire
At some point, you'd think Mrs. Romney would get tired of the guy blowing through all their money and time.