World Fertility Plot
Google has a very well implemented visualization of the fertility rates of the world. Check it out here.
Play around with it. I think you'll find it interesting, especially as a companion to the demographic points in Mark Steyn's America Alone.
I'm assuming for the moment that the data is roughly correct, and the measurements are roughly consistent.
It's generally understood that a fertility rate of 2.1 children per female is the replacement rate, the rate required for a stable society. This makes sense. The US is currently at 2.05, and has been hovering around that rate for a couple decades, less in the 70's and early 80's, more before then. That's pretty stable.
The northern European nations are near there; the UK, France, and the Scandinavian countries are pretty consistently in the range 1.8 to 2.2. Not bad.
The southern European nations are significantly lower; Portugal, Germany, Austria, Spain, Poland, Italy are all consistently in the range 1.3 to 1.5. That's dangerously low. And they've been running low for a couple decades.
On the other side of the world, Japan is at 1.37. Also dangerously low.
India's fertility rate used to be huge, almost 6.0, but has been steeply declining on a ruler-straight line for five decades.
I think this is fascinating.
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May '10
Re: World Fertility Plot
Equally important as a nation's ability to keep a steady supply of healthy young people is its ability to maintain basic cultural unity. Some of those "replacement rate" statistics are misleading because it's not just their numbers being replaced — it's their national identities.
Fifty years from now, the present political borders in Europe might be basically the same as today, but different peoples will be living there.
It's like when nearly every member of a rock band is replaced and the music sounds completely different, but the band's name and logo remain. The new members might even occasionally play old songs, but everyone understands the original band is long gone.
Jun '11
Re: World Fertility Plot
Thanks for these charts. You are right - fascinating.
You could envision a point in the future where the Central Planners run advertising campaigns scoffing at abortions and encouraging procreation. I've read that in Russia, they are already doing this.
Now, after the abortions of nearly 60 million potential citizens in this country since Roe v. Wade, after the elimination of generations of taxpayers at a time in history when we need more citizen taxpayers, wouldn't that be a kick?
May '10
Re: World Fertility Plot
Michael, your post reminds me of a Monty Python skit: "Let's not bicker and argue about who killed who." Condemning abortion because we need more young citizens to pay into social programs is like condemning rape because happy women make more productive employees. Only politicians could be satisfied by such an argument.
Jun '10
Re: World Fertility Plot
According to a study,
For mathematics research papers, the mean age for first contributions by an author is 27.3 years, and the mean age for "best" contributions is 38.8 years. And of course, to produce those people, you need a large enough population of children to produce the rare math genius once in awhile. It also helps if you can produce 50 mathematicians that work together and talk to each other, rather than just 5.
Aug '10
Re: World Fertility Plot
Japan's problem is probably most severe, because their immigration rate is almost zero. Other countries are replacing their natural population loss with immigration which, while it has its own problems, will at least allow those countries to maintain a workforce to support retirees.
At current trendlines, Japan is forecast to have its population decline by perhaps 30 million people by 2050, and of those that remain, more than 1/3 will be retired. Japan could ultimately lose more than half of its population, which will not be enough to maintain its infrastructure or support its ever-aging population.
In Europe, the problem is more than the natural population loss is being being made up through immigration, and the immigrants are often poor people from high birthrate countries who are not assimilating and are slowing changing the cultural fabric of Europe.
For the world as a whole, the fear of overpopulation appears to be groundless. The U.N. has been steadily revising its estimates of world population growth downwards - a trend that's been going on for the last 20 years. In the lowest birthrate scenario, world population could actually crash to about 3.6 billion people by 2100.
Feb '11
Re: World Fertility Plot
michael kelley:
Now, after the abortions of nearly 60 million potential citizens in this country since Roe v. Wade, after the elimination of generations of taxpayers at a time in history when we need more citizen taxpayers, wouldn't that be a kick?
Not when you calculate how many of those 60 million would be a burden rather than a boon.
Edited on Aug 11, 2011 at 1:17pmNov '10
Re: World Fertility Plot
I also note a slight uptick in Western countries in the last few years. Could be mild grounds for optimism.
May '10
Re: World Fertility Plot
Aaron, have you seen the recent remake of Battlestar Galactica? The interim president banned abortion by executive order in spite of her ideological support of a "woman's right to choose", because the human population couldn't afford not to have those babies.
Dec '10
Re: World Fertility Plot
Mark Wilson
Aaron, have you seen the recent remake of Battlestar Galactica? The interim president banned abortion by executive orderin spite of her ideological support of a "woman's right to choose", because the human population couldn't afford not to have those babies. · Aug 11 at 1:46pm
Mark, because you have referenced BSG in this thread, you are my new favorite member.
To the Finest Ship in the Fleet!
Jun '10
Re: World Fertility Plot
Great chart. These data underlie many of the arguments made in Mark Steyn's last book. When the rate falls below 1.5 for an extended period of time, it becomes virtually impossible for a nation to turn it around.
Pretty sad when the human race cannot even be relied upon to reproduce itself.
Mar '11
Re: World Fertility Plot
It's unfortunate that I am too old to have a significant impact on these numbers.
May '10
Re: World Fertility Plot
Michael Horn
Mark Wilson
Aaron, have you seen the recent remake of Battlestar Galactica? The interim president banned abortion by executive orderin spite of her ideological support of a "woman's right to choose", because the human population couldn't afford not to have those babies.
Mark, because you have referenced BSG in this thread, you are my new favorite member.
To the Finest Ship in the Fleet!
The modern Battlestar Galactica series has actually been my Netflix project for the past few weeks. It raises some great philosophical questions. That abortion bit did make me cringe, but I'm not driven to skip entire episodes as I am with some other series.
May '11
Re: World Fertility Plot
Interesting how wealth lowers birth rates. If we eliminate poverty from the world would we "wealth" our way out of existence?
Apr '11
Re: World Fertility Plot
http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=d5bncppjof8f9_&ctype=l&strail=false&nselm=h&met_y=sp_dyn_tfrt_in&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=country&idim=country:ISR:EGY:LBN:JOR:IRQ:SYR:SAU:ARE:IRN:KWT&ifdim=country&tstart=-296337600000&tend=1281499200000&hl=en&dl=en&icfg&uniSize=0.035&iconSize=0.5
Only one nation against the trend here.
Re: World Fertility Plot
I was a big BSG fan--despite my wife's protests about the nihilistic undertow--right up until the writers decided to abandon the oblique references and go head-to-head with a much more unambiguous threat than the genocidal Cylons. I refer, of course, to George W. Bush. When our heroes, the colonials on New Caprica, became suicide bombing "insurgents" fighting the evil Cylon occupiers...well, I dial up the SyFy channel to have a few moments escape. If I wanted Iraq War sermonizing, I could always get the mainstream version from CNN, or head over to MSNBC for the the full-frontal fire and brimstone package.
Dec '10
Re: World Fertility Plot
My wife and I have three daughters. We've done our bit for America's future.
May '11
Re: World Fertility Plot
Antonio Cromartie of the New York Jets has done 3 times as much for America's future than you have. With 8 different women. Check out his you tube clip from HBO's "Hard Knocks" of him trying to remember all his kids names and ages. Hilarious and depressing at the same time.
Feb '11
Re: World Fertility Plot
The fertility numbers have been flat since the 1980s. Have we disappeared yet? Not that I've noticed. These numbers are only a portion of the picture. The other portion is life expectancy. Japan has the lowest fertility rate and the highest life expectancy. Coincidence? Fertility is flat and life expectancy is increasing and will probably increase at an accelerating rate. So the idea of population collapse is not one I'd put much stock in.
Mar '11
Re: World Fertility Plot
The Japanese solution to their birth rate problem, robots.
Jun '10
Re: World Fertility Plot
I disagree. It takes several decades to reach stability, so, assuming America's fertility rate remains at about 2.1, it will reach a point of population stability in a few decades (of course, immigration can affect that).
Japan, and other countries, have passed the tipping point. Check out this website, where the CIA tracks fertility rates and population loss and gain. In 2011, Japan will lose .3 percent of its population, Germany more than .2 percent, Russia .6 percent, and Spain .6 percent. Life expectancy is not outstripping their low fertility rates: Japan (1.21), Germany (1.41), Russia (1.42), Spain (1.47). Japan has high life expectancy, but will soon be in a population death spiral.