Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
Peter Robinson ·
Nov 17, 2011 at 3:38pm
The latest polling from Rasmussen Reports:
[A] national telephone survey of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers shows Gingrich with 32% followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 19%. Georgia businessman Herman Cain, who led in Iowa last month, drops to third with 13% of the vote. Texas Congressman Ron Paul draws 10% of the vote in Iowa, while Texas Governor Rick Perry and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann each grab six percent (6%).
In re which, two questions:
1) Can this last?
2) Does it matter? (In Iowa, Mike Murphy argued pretty compellingly on this week's podcast, Mitt Romney need only finish ahead of Rick Perry.)
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Comments :
Jun '10
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
Newt is no Churchill, but he's the closest we have.
Dec '10
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
Gingrich is the flavor of the month. He could last, or the exposure could dredge up more skeletons that the voters find acceptable.
I'm not sure how much Iowa matters to Mitt since he has NH in a headlock. The real study should be done in South Carolina now. If Newt gets Iowa (as seems likely today; tomorrow, who knows?) then takes SC we may have a real fight on our hands. Personally, I think the anti-Romney sentiment is strong enough for the contest to go well beyond Florida. Super Tuesday could, indeed, be super this go round. I'm torn between wanting a good long battle and wanting some rest from it all.
Nov '11
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
I don't think it can, if only because past performance has been a pretty good indicator of future results in this primary. At least one line of attack, that Newt was on the take from Fannie/Freddie , has been tried although I think he handled it fairly well and the attack was fairly clumsy.
Newt does have the some things that none of the previous high-flying alternatives have had however which could skew his results.
One is that he's been consistently good in the televised debates which are this cycles end-all-be-all of the commentariat.
The second is that unlike Perry, Bachman, Cain and Pawlenty he's had experience in having a national spotlight on him, and in a negative light. None of the other candidates have had that experience so when they've had missteps, they've had to figure out how to attack them. I don't think Newt has that problem.
In the end Newt merely needs to extend his status as the anti-Romney a few extra weeks to win Iowa, and if he does win Iowa I think he can make an excellent run through the primary season.
Aug '10
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
Follow the bouncing ball...
Nov '10
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
Can Newt raise the money he needs? It seems to me that Mike Murphy's argument was that Perry was the major risk to Mitt because of the money he had raised.
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
Exactly. Perry has something like $17 million in the bank. I don't have the figure at hand, but as I recall Newt has raised only about a third as much. We shall see....
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
At this stage, Frozen, that's as useful a rule of political analysis as any.
Oct '10
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
At this point in 1971, only a few people saw McGovern as a viable candidate, and yet he won the Democrat nomination. Newt may be in much the same position today—let's hope it doesn't end as badly in the general election.
Feb '11
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
So is this (the podcast conversation) Murphy doing his part to set the low expectation for Romney in Iowa, or is this Murphy's expert handicapping?
Edited on Nov 17, 2011 at 5:10pmRe: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
I'd like to be able to pull for Newt -- I really would -- but until I see a credible poll indicating that he could beat Obama, he remains for me just another one of the Dwarfs. I suspect there are a few other people in the same boat. Per Mr. Walker, above -- it is precisely the McGovern scenario that is so worrisome here. If Newt can effectively allay fears of that as a remotely plausible outcome, he may well "stick" as the only viable non-Romney. If not, I think he will fade back into the pack.
May '10
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
Peter Robinson
Exactly. Perry has something like $17 million in the bank. I don't have the figure at hand, but as I recall Newt has raised only about a third as much. We shall see.... · Nov 17 at 4:26pm
Perry's apparently spent much of that cash, needs more, but can't get it.
Newt's got at least fifty bucks. (blush)
Puzzling: Romney remains a solid 70% to get the nomination on Intrade, unchanged by the Newt bubble. Newt's bouncing at 12-14%. Sure seems closer than that.
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
Scott Reusser
Newt's got at least fifty bucks. (blush)
· Nov 17 at 4:51pm
The moment has come, I believe, Brother Scott, for you to come clean.
From whom, pray, did Newt get his fifty bucks?
Jan '11
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
Peter Robinson
Exactly. Perry has something like $17 million in the bank. I don't have the figure at hand, but as I recall Newt has raised only about a third as much. We shall see.... · Nov 17 at 4:26pm
I think the money eventually follows the messenger. Perry had that 17 million when he was at 30% in the polls and before his debate performances. How much do you think it will cost him to change our minds about his chances to defeat Obama? Voters, especially primary voters, support those who they believe in and/or who they feel has the best chance of winning.
Mar '11
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
So far, the dogs are not eating the dog food. Screaming at the dogs will not make the dogs eat the dog food. Pleading with the dogs will not make the dogs eat the dog food. Sweet reason will not make the dogs eat the dog food.
The dogs won't eat the dog food until they are hungry enough, and they'll only eat as much as they can stand.
I've been told that there are independent cats that just can't resist this dog food. Good luck with that.
I hope it ends up being enough.
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
For you, Steven, and John Walker, this item, from the blog of the Weekly Standard (the critical graf is the second):
Newt still doesn't do as well against Obama as does Romney, but he's moving up, right smartly.
Your thoughts now?
Jun '10
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
If I thought that the general public, in 2012, could still muster up some indignant revulsion over congressional adultery, or sweetheart deals, then I'd worry about the course of Newt's campaign. If....
Dec '10
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
I agree. In fact, I predict he will fade fairly soon. I said Cain wasn't the man for the job and I was right. I think I'll be right about Newt as well.
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
Peter Robinson
Newt still doesn't do as well against Obama as does Romney, but he's moving up, right smartly.
Your thoughts now? · Nov 17 at 5:17pm
Well -- I was guilty of a certain laziness in expression when I wrote "a poll." In fact, Mitt has consistently polled near or ahead of Obama for some time now, across multiple polls from multiple sources. Any one poll at this point is fairly meaningless. When Newt shows the same pattern as Mitt -- consistently competitive or ahead in polls from different sources -- then I will start to Believe. Will he? Dunno. My gut tells me no -- I just don't see his appeal stretching far beyond the hard core who love watching liberal media types get smacked down once in a while. But I am wholly open-minded here -- and will be watching the polls.
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
Steve Manacek
Well -- I was guilty of a certain laziness in expression when I wrote "a poll." In fact, Mitt has consistently polled near or ahead of Obama for some time now, across multiple polls from multiple sources. Any one poll at this point is fairly meaningless. When Newt shows the same pattern as Mitt -- consistently competitive or ahead in polls from different sources -- then I will start to Believe. Will he? Dunno. My gut tells me no -- I just don't see his appeal stretching far beyond the hard core who love watching liberal media types get smacked down once in a while. But I am wholly open-minded here -- and will be watching the polls. · Nov 17 at 5:58pm
Fair enough. And on behalf of the whole Ricochetoise, I hereby turn over to you, O oldest and best of friends, the duty of keeping an eye on the Newt-versus-Obama polls from here on--or at least until the Iowa caucuses on January 3.
Edited on Nov 17, 2011 at 6:21pmJul '10
Re: Wow. Newt Now Leads Mitt by More Than Ten
I think he has staying power. Unlike the rest, his skeletons are mostly known and gone. A churchillian speaker of real substance. Sat on a couch with Pelosi? Well Churchill once spoke admiringly of Mussolini and also helped put in place the welfare state in Britain. Newt's had his years in the wilderness. I dismissed him within a week of announcing. I was enamored by his Iran answer and his pledge to abolish the czars on day One.